NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-20 19:06:39

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Oklahoma City at Cleveland

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -9.5, 199 Over/Under
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
• Cleveland Proj. Starters – Jack-Waiters-Gee-Thompson-Hawes

Oklahoma City

March Madness takes the stage today, but there are still 4 NBA games on tap tonight which is actually more than a typical Thursday night. There are a lot of injuries we need to factor in tonight which opens the door for plenty of value plays which are usually very limited on such a short slate. The first game of the night features a fairly low total considering the pace at which this game should be played.

The Thunder are 9 point favorites tonight and have to be thinking about some revenge after the Cavs came into OKC and picked up a win a couple of weeks ago. Serge Ibaka has a decent matchup down low, but his value is so dependent on blocks that it’s hard to predict his output on a nightly basis. Ibaka did post 16 points and 13 boards in their last meeting though and he could make a nice upside play in a tournament.

• Kevin Durant – Durant and Love are the two top options on the board today and with all of the injuries, you may be able to fit them both in your lineup. The first time these two teams met, Durant was 1 assist shy of a triple double (28/10/9). The Cavs have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to opposing SF’s this season and Durant should be targeted in all leagues.

• Russell Westbrook – Westbrook is such a tough play because he is still only seeing 30 minutes of playing time per game. That’s 8-10 minutes less per night than some of your other top PG options. That said, Westbrook continues to post monster stat lines and he has a terrific matchup against the Cavs who have continuously been burned by PG’s this season. UPDATE: Westbrook is a GTD, if he can’t go, Reggie Jackson makes a terrific value play.

Cleveland

The Cavs really played well the other night against the Heat in their first game without Kyrie Irving. Luckily, this game will be played at home and hopefully they will put up another solid effort. With Irving out, we saw Jarrett Jack and Dion Waiters both play over 40 minutes. With Luol Deng and C.J. Miles already ruled out for tonight’s game, you have to think that Jack and Waiters will each see close to 40 minutes once again.

The Thunder are ranked 1st and 3rd against SF’s and Centers this season. Alonzo Gee will get the start though and he is minimum salary across the board. I think he can reach value, but he doesn’t have the upside that you are looking for in a punt play. Spencer Hawes, Tristan Thompson, and Anderson Varejao should all be avoided tonight. Thunder have been very stout against bigs this season.

• Dion Waiters – The main fantasy concern with Waiters this season has been his playing time. But with Irving and Deng both out tonight, there is no one on the bench that will threaten his minutes. Waiters posted 34 FP’s the other night against the Heat and I think we can expect a similar output tonight against the Thunder.

• Jarrett Jack – Jack has been a little bit of a disappointment this season, but with Kyrie out for the foreseeable future, he will have plenty of opportunity to redeem himself. Jack played well against the Heat the other night and put up 31 FP’ in his last meeting against the Thunder.

Minnesota at Houston

• Vegas Line – Houston -7, 214 Over/Under
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Asik

Minnesota

Nikola Pekovic is considered doubtful for tonight’s game against the Rockets which means we may see another start from rookie Gorgui Dieng who has come out of nowhere with 35 and 29 FP’s in each of his last 2 games. He is still close to minimum salary across the industry and should be owned in all leagues tonight as the Rockets will be without Dwight Howard.

The Rockets have done a decent job defending PG’s this season. Patrick Beverley is a very pesky defender that likes to get under the skin of his opponent. Ricky Rubio should come crashing back down to Earth tonight after his monster triple-double against the Mavericks last night. Kevin Martin makes a nice play at SG, the Rockets have a bad habit of leaving shooters open.

• Kevin Love – As crazy as it sounds, Dieng has actually cut into Love’s rebound totals. Love has had 10 and 8 rebounds in Dieng’s 2 starts. That said, the Rockets have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to PF’s this season and Love should be a monster on the glass tonight with no Dwight to deal with down low. If you can’t decide between Love and Durant tonight, try to get them both in your lineup.

Houston

The Rockets will be without Dwight Howard tonight which means Omer Asik will get the start at Center. Howard’s absence should translate to a huge uptick in production for Terrence Jones, Omer Asik, and even Chandler Parsons. This Wolves team is ranked 17th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s in terms of fantasy points allowed this season and all five starters are in play here.

While I don’t like James Harden as much as Love or Durant, he is still very much in play tonight. The Rockets are projected to be the highest scoring team tonight and Dwight’s absence could open up a few more shots for Harden. Chandler Parsons makes a great play as well, his price is right in that mid-range and

• Omer Asik – The Asik/Dieng battle isn’t quite what the schedule makers had in mind for this nationally televised game, but they are both solid fantasy options tonight. Asik posted a solid double-double the other night in Dwight’s absence and should easily reach value at his minimum salary price. I recommend taking both Dieng and Asik on sites that allow 2 Centers.

• Terrence Jones – Jones is one of my favorite plays tonight. With Dwight out, he should benefit the most in terms of increased production. When Jones is guaranteed minutes and shot attempts, he rarely plays bad. Jones posted 47 FP’s the other night against the Jazz and should be targeted in all leagues tonight.

Washington at Portland

• Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 206 Over/Under
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Wright-Batum-Lopez

Washington

The Wizards are one of the only teams on the schedule tonight that doesn’t have an injured starter. Well, technically Nene is out, but he has been out for quite some time now. The Wizards are only 4.5 point underdogs and this game should be both fast-paced and close. The Blazers are a much different team defensively with Aldridge out of the lineup. Nicolas Batum is one of the better wing defenders in the game though so I do recommend avoiding Trevor Ariza and his inconsistent play of late.

Marcin Gortat has a nice matchup down low against Lopez. Both Centers rely on their teammates to create open shots for them and both are solid rebounders. Gorat should be a safe play in cash games if you don’t like the cheaper options at Center. Drew Gooden continues to make a nice play off the bench. He has played 26+ minutes in 2 straight games and has posted 30+ FP’s in both of those outings.

• John Wall – Even though Wall has been much better at home this season, the Blazers have given up big fantasy outings to PG’s all season long. Wall has a terrific matchup against Lillard and he should be able to attack the rim at will with the Blazers missing their best rim protector. Wall has an extremely high ceiling in this matchup.

• Bradley Beal – I like Beal for his matchup as well as his cheap price tag across the industry. Beal has consistently been right around that 25 FP mark and he should be able to get there again tonight. The Blazers have struggled to defend SG’s over the last 15 days and Beal makes a nice play at SG.

Portland

The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge once again and he is responsible for so much production that everyone in the lineup gets a nice fantasy boost with him out. Dorell Wright will draw the start, but all five starters should see an uptick in production. Nicolas Batum continues to post video game type numbers, but his price has gotten too high for my tastes. I think he is in play on FD, but some of the other sites have him priced up to his recent level of production.

• Robin Lopez – When Aldridge is out of the lineup, Lopez immediately becomes a better fantasy option. He’s not necessarily seeing a huge uptick in minutes, but his rebound totals have gone way up and he has seen a few extra shot attempts per game as well.

• Damian Lillard – Even though Lillard let down a lot of people the other night, he should be primed for a bounce back game here. This is a much better matchup for him and Lillard is their best option offensively. Lillard had 25 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds in his first meeting against the Wizards and should post a similar stat line tonight.

Milwaukee at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -13.5, 204 Over/Under
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Bogut

Milwaukee

The Bucks are 13.5 point underdogs tonight and this is by far my least favorite game of the night to target. The Bucks have not been a great road team and are basically playing for the offseason at this point. The Warriors own a top 10 defense and the Bucks should really struggle to score tonight. I don’t mind some punt plays from the Bucks, but I’m not going to be targeting them heavily in any of my cash game lineups.

Golden State

The Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala for at least a week which opens up big playing time for both Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. Andrew Bogut missed the Warriors game on Tuesday so make sure to keep a close eye on his status later on in the day. With the potential blowout, I will be avoiding both David Lee and Stephen Curry. However, I do like the punt plays of Barnes and Green. They could see some garbage time as well which never hurts.