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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-03 03:29:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Chicago Bulls
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 218.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Team Total 113.0 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- 4.3
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Patrick McCaw Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Bobby Portis Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 17 16 11 5 Adj. DvP 14 10 24 18 18
DRPM 0.17 -0.60 1.86 -0.53 0.21 DRPM -0.03 -0.73 -1.62 4.76 3.40

Golden State Warriors

We have a small three game slate on tap tonight, but it’s actually a pretty interesting slate. There are some high totals and plenty of fantasy options at each position. Many predicted that the Warriors were a shoe-in to win the championship this year if they were able to stay healthy. After Kevin Durant sprained his MCL and is out for at least four weeks, they will face their first true rough stretch of the season. The Warriors were able to sign Matt Barnes at the perfect time though, which helps add depth at the wing. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in a game that features an over/under of 218.5 points. The Warriors implied total of 113 points may be lower than their season average, but we have to remember that they are missing their best scorer in Durant.

These are the times when it pays to use the CourtIQ tool. If we run a query with Kevin Durant off the floor, we can see that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson see the biggest boosts in production. Curry sees a 6.2% usage boost with a FP/min boost of 0.20, while Thompson sees a 6.7% usage boost with a 0.20 FP/min boost. Even though the sites have jacked up the priced of both Curry and Thompson, they are still elite plays tonight in the first game without Durant. I would lean Thompson if I could only fit one, but I will be doing my best to get exposure to both players. Draymond Green surprisingly sees a very small boost in production without Durant, but he’ll likely play more minutes moving forward and we’ve seen the type of all-around fantasy outings he can put together. Green is overpriced tonight, but with a lack of options at power forward, he is also an elite play. Andre Iguodala should see a nice boost off the bench, but his price is up across the industry. Patrick McCaw and Ian Clark should both see 20+ minutes of action, making them viable punt options at shooting guard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,600 $10,000 1.21 33.5 -0.3 40.4 0.6 30.2% 3.3% 22 0.17
Klay Thompson $7,000 $7,200 0.88 34.2 -0.6 30.1 2.9 24.1% 0.1% 17 -0.60
Patrick McCaw $3,500 $3,000 0.52 12.8 4.4 6.7 2.8 13.0% -1.6% 16 1.86
Draymond Green $8,300 $8,000 1.08 32.7 -5.3 35.5 -7.7 18.9% 3.5% 11 -0.53
Zaza Pachulia $4,600 $4,300 0.97 18.7 -0.9 18.2 5.3 15.2% 4.1% 5 0.21
Andre Iguodala $4,800 $4,900 0.71 25.8 1.7 18.4 3.6 12.2% -0.7% 16 N/A
Ian Clark $3,500 $3,000 0.75 13.9 -2.9 10.4 -2.0 18.6% -0.7% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Andre Iguodala, Patrick McCaw, Ian Clark

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls may be trending in the wrong direction, but they have a good shot of making the playoffs. They currently hold a two and a half game lead over the ninth place Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bulls draw a difficult matchup tonight, but at least they get to face the Warriors when they are short-handed. This will be a pace-up game for Chicago, which helps explain why their implied total is 2.6 points above their season average. The crazy part is that their team total of 105.5 points is the lowest in the entire slate. Michael Carter-Williams is expected to be a game-time decision tonight, but his status doesn’t impact the slate all that much.

Even if Michael Carter-Williams is ruled out, I have a hard time trusting any of the Bulls’ point guards. Rajon Rondo has been playing well off the bench, but Cameron Payne is their point guard of the future (at least that is what they are hoping). Rondo could be worth a look in a large GPP, but it’s a good night to spend up at point guard. Dwyane Wade grades out as the best shooting guard play tonight in my NBA model, slightly outscoring Klay Thompson. I expect Wade to be much lower owned than Thompson if you want to make the pivot in tournaments. I plan to have a lot of exposure to both players. Jimmy Butler struggled the other night against the Suns, but should bounce back nicely in an uptempo game against the Warriors. Andre Iguodala is a good defender, but Butler sees a nice boost not having to deal with Kevin Durant. I’ve been on the wrong Bulls’ power forward in each of the last three games. Chicago keeps saying that they want to give Bobby Portis more minutes and then they only do it when nobody is on him. For the time being, I slightly prefer Nikola Mirotic. Both players have nice upside, but they are both better GPP targets than cash game options. Robin Lopez is a decent punt at center, but this isn’t a game that really fits his skill set.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,500 $3,000 0.67 16.3 0.2 10.9 -0.3 17.7% -0.4% 14 -0.03
Dwyane Wade $7,900 $7,000 1.08 30.4 1.2 32.9 4.9 31.1% -2.2% 10 -0.73
Jimmy Butler $9,000 $8,900 1.13 36.7 2.3 41.5 -0.7 29.2% -3.0% 24 -1.62
Bobby Portis $4,200 $4,100 0.79 12.7 7.2 10.1 9.4 17.7% 3.7% 18 4.76
Robin Lopez $4,800 $4,200 0.78 28.0 -1.8 21.8 0.4 16.9% 6.4% 18 3.40
Nikola Mirotic $4,200 $5,000 0.82 22.8 5.9 18.6 5.1 18.8% -2.8% 18 N/A
Rajon Rondo $5,200 $5,300 0.90 26.2 -1.8 23.6 3.7 22.6% 3.5% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic (Cash), Rajon Rondo (GPP), Bobby Portis

Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Phoenix Suns
charlottenba Vegas Total 218.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 111.0 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 3.1 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 28 11 26 22 Adj. DvP 15 22 19 22 17
DRPM -1.12 -2.27 -2.62 -1.02 1.32 DRPM -0.53 -0.06 2.31 0.28 0.35

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets finally picked up a win on the road the other night, besting the Lakers in Los Angeles. They have another winnable road game tonight against the Suns, who don’t have a lot to play for at this point in the season. Charlotte comes into the game as a 4-point favorite against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, Phoenix is ranked fourth in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied total of 111 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 6.2 points above their season average. We can give a generous boost to the entire Hornets’ offense in this spot.

Cody Zeller was able to return from his injury on Tuesday, but was held to 18 minutes off the bench. After missing so much time, he will likely be on a minute restriction for the foreseeable future. As long as we don’t hear otherwise, I will be going back to the Frank Kaminsky well that has provided so much nourishment for the people of DFS. Even with Zeller active the other night, Kaminsky still played 36 minutes and scored 44 fantasy points. I also like the fact that Tyson Chandler is not seeing the floor, as he is the Suns’ best low-post defender. Marvin Williams should also see big minutes at the four and makes for a nice contrarian play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Kemba Walker is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and you have to like his chances to reach value if he plays 40 minutes against the Suns. Walker is a little pricey though, especially given all of the other options at point guard. Nicolas Batum hasn’t been in the best of form, but he is cheap and draws one of the best matchups in the slate. The Suns are ranked 28th in adjusted DvP against shooting guards. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeremy Lamb, and Marco Belinelli are all viable secondary options, but none of them are core plays in this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,300 $8,400 1.06 34.6 4.8 36.5 4.1 29.8% -4.2% 17 -1.12
Nicolas Batum $7,300 $7,100 0.93 34.9 2.0 32.5 -3.7 23.7% 2.0% 28 -2.27
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,600 $5,100 0.78 29.6 0.3 23.2 3.8 14.2% -1.5% 11 -2.62
Marvin Williams $5,200 $4,900 0.74 29.1 8.4 21.5 3.2 16.5% -3.6% 26 -1.02
Frank Kaminsky $6,200 $7,200 0.84 25.7 9.8 21.7 14.4 21.4% 1.2% 22 1.32
Jeremy Lamb $3,900 $3,500 0.96 17.7 2.9 16.9 -2.6 22.9% -4.8% 28 N/A
Cody Zeller $5,000 $4,300 0.86 26.6 -8.2 23.0 -9.5 16.5% 2.7% 22 N/A
Marco Belinelli $3,600 $3,400 0.70 24.5 -2.5 17.1 -3.2 19.0% -1.7% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Frank Kaminsky (DK), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lamb (GPP), Marco Belinelli (GPP)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have lost eight of their last ten games and currently have the worst record in the Western Conference. While they may not be a team on the rise, they are always one of our favorites to see on the schedule. They play at a fast pace and rarely play any defense. Tonight they host the visiting Hornets, who have really struggled on the road this season. We can expect a close, high-scoring game, which is the perfect environment for fantasy production. The Suns have an implied total of 107 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Suns are doing what all of the non-contending teams should be doing right now. They are resting their veterans and developing their young players. Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have not seen the floor in each of the last three games and I expect that to continue tonight. That leaves 48 minutes to split between Alex Len and Alan Williams. We’ve seen the Suns ride with the hot hand, so I don’t necessarily prefer one over the other. I will have a lot of exposure to both players though, as this is a good matchup against the Hornets’ undersized frontcourt. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 36 minutes and 44 fantasy points in his last three games. Dollar for dollar, I prefer him over Kemba Walker, especially on DraftKings. Devin Booker has been in a slump recently, but should see 35+ minutes at a discounted price point. T.J. Warren is one of my favorite plays in the slate. In his last three games, he is averaging 37 minutes and 31 fantasy points per contest. Marquese Chriss has played at least 32 minutes in three of his last six games. If he plays anywhere close to 30 minutes tonight, he should smash value at his price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,900 $8,100 1.12 33.3 2.7 37.4 6.6 30.6% -1.9% 15 -0.53
Devin Booker $6,200 $6,500 0.82 34.6 0.8 28.4 -3.4 27.8% -3.6% 22 -0.06
T.J. Warren $5,800 $5,500 0.74 29.6 1.8 21.9 2.0 18.6% -4.2% 19 2.31
Marquese Chriss $4,500 $4,200 0.78 19.2 5.6 15.0 7.1 19.0% 0.8% 22 0.28
Alex Len $5,000 $4,000 0.91 19.9 3.4 18.1 2.2 16.8% 3.6% 17 0.35
Alan Williams $4,900 $4,400 1.20 9.1 9.8 10.9 13.4 20.1% 1.0% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK), Devin Booker (GPP), T.J. Warren, Marquese Chriss (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (FD), Devin Booker (Cash), Marquese Chriss (Cash), Alan Williams (GPP), Alex Len (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Portland Trail Blazers
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 219.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 110.3 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 1.9
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Alex Abrines Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 26 17 19 19 Adj. DvP 25 11 14 8 13
DRPM -1.93 -2.03 0.18 0.91 2.32 DRPM -0.24 -2.23 2.17 1.25 1.74

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won four games in a row and seven of their last ten. They haven’t been great on the road this season, but draw an excellent matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked 26th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder come into tonight’s game as a 1-point favorite with an implied total of 110.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate and four points above their season average.

Russell Westbrook is close to an auto-play tonight on FanDuel and given the decent number of value plays on DraftKings, I may try to force him into my lineup over there as well. Damian Lillard is not a great defender, as he has a DRPM of -1.93 this season. Furthermore, it’s tough to fade Westbrook in any slate, let alone one where Victor Oladipo isn’t expected to play. With Oladipo off the floor this season, Westbrook has a 45% usage rate and averages over 60 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Alex Abrines is a decent punt play at shooting guard. He is averaging 17 fantasy points in his last three starts, although he may start losing minutes to Doug McDermott off the bench. Outside of Westbrook, the only other plays of note are both in the frontcourt. Enes Kanter and Steven Adams should have their way with a Blazers’ team that is ranked 21st in rebounding differential and 19th against both power forwards and centers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,800 $13,300 1.66 34.8 -0.2 57.8 1.4 45.9% 0.0% 10 -1.93
Alex Abrines $3,500 $3,600 0.57 15.0 10.3 8.6 5.5 15.5% -1.7% 26 -2.03
Andre Roberson $4,300 $3,900 0.60 30.6 -2.9 18.2 -2.6 10.5% -0.8% 17 0.18
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.60 21.3 -3.3 12.8 -0.7 15.0% 1.7% 19 0.91
Steven Adams $6,000 $5,400 0.84 30.7 -3.1 25.9 0.4 16.7% 1.3% 19 2.32
Enes Kanter $5,900 $5,200 1.13 21.7 1.6 24.6 0.2 25.7% 1.4% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, Steven Adams

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have lost seven of their last ten games and are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the Western Conference. They desperately need a win to get back on track. Tonight they host the visiting Thunder in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The spread is set at a single point and the over/under is sitting at 219.5 points. The Thunder are a mediocre team defensively, but the Blazers have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 1.8 points above their season average.

Damian Lillard has really stepped up his play recently, averaging 48 fantasy points in his last three games. The best place to attack the Thunder is at the point guard position, as they are ranked 25th in adjusted DvP against the position. In their meeting last month, Lillard had 47 fantasy points. He is an elite play in all formats and one of the many elite point guard options that I will have exposure to tonight. C.J. McCollum is a player that I generally don’t have a lot of exposure to. I prefer the likes of Dwyane Wade, Klay Thompson, and Nicolas Batum at similar price points. McCollum will be defended by Andre Roberson, who has a DRPM of 2.17 this season. Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu should both play 30+ minutes tonight with Ed Davis and Evan Turner out. Both are viable options at their respective positions. Jusuf Nurkic is going to be the chalk play at center tonight. Even though he draws a tough matchup against Steven Adams, his price is too cheap for his level of production.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,100 $8,800 1.11 36.0 1.1 40.1 1.7 32.1% 1.1% 25 -0.24
C.J. McCollum $7,500 $7,300 0.97 34.7 1.7 33.7 -5.2 28.1% 0.9% 11 -2.23
Maurice Harkless $4,800 $4,800 0.71 29.4 4.2 21.0 5.9 15.5% -1.4% 14 2.17
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.69 13.5 5.4 9.3 0.6 13.3% -5.6% 8 1.25
Jusuf Nurkic $5,400 $5,600 1.00 18.8 9.2 18.8 11.1 22.8% -1.7% 13 1.74
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,300 $5,000 0.77 28.9 1.8 22.1 1.3 15.6% 2.4% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic

Secondary Plays – Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard (GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious