NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-06 20:33:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Miami at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -2.5, 209 Over/Under
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Miami

There are only 3 games on the schedule tonight so we will keep the Grind Down short and sweet today. The first game of the night is a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals. These two teams put on a show last year and this game is expected to be much of the same. The total for this game is set at 209 points and the Spurs are slight favorites.

The Heat have a tough matchup against the Spurs who are only giving up 98 points per game to their opponents this season. Looking at the DvP rankings, the Spurs have really defended the wing positions well. They are ranked 5th and 2nd against SG’s and SF’s in terms of fantasy points allowed. I don’t think that we can rule out either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, but they do have tough matchups.

Mario Chalmers – Chalmers is in play for two reasons tonight. First, and more importantly, is his price. His price has gone down across the board and he is extremely cheap on FD, DS, DK, and SS tonight. Second, Chalmers has a terrific matchup against Parker and the Spurs who are giving up the 8th most FP’s to PG’s this season. Chalmers should be able to top 20 FP’s tonight.

San Antonio

Even though the total for this game is higher than average, it’s a tough matchup for both teams. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 as far as points allowed per game as well as defensive efficiency. The Heat have been outstanding at defending PG’s and wing defenders this season. They are ranked 4th or better against those positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. They have, however struggled to defend talented bigs.

Tim Duncan – Duncan will likely play some time at the four and the five tonight. He will start off on Shane Battier and spend some time on Chris Bosh as well. I love both matchups for him on the offensive end of the floor. The Old Fundamental is still putting up incredible numbers and he should be able to post a double-double against the Heat tonight.

Oklahoma City at Phoenix

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5.5, 216 Over/Under
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Len

Oklahoma City

The Thunder are 5.5 point favorites tonight against the Suns who have not been great defensively this season. The Suns are giving up 102.4 points per game and are averaging over 98 possessions per game. This is a great matchup for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is probably the biggest decision that we have to make in this one. He’s been incredibly efficient over his last two games and I have a hard time seeing him keep that up. He’s still playing less than 30 minutes per game and I think he comes back down to Earth tonight.

Kevin Durant – In his first meeting against the Suns, Durant posted 33 points and 10 rebounds. He should have another big game tonight. This game is expected to stay close and with Westbrook still on a minutes cap, look for Durant to be the focal point of the offense. If you are spending up for a star tonight, Durant is the way to go.

Serge Ibaka – Steven Adams just hasn’t been very good down low and Ibaka is having to play some time at Center. I like the matchup against the Suns who will be missing Miles Plumlee. Look for Ibaka to have a nice game offensively and pick up a few blocks on defense.

Phoenix

The Suns are 5.5 point underdogs, but have a solid matchup against the Thunder who have not been great defensively ever since Westbrook was inserted back into the lineup. Miles Plumlee will sit out another game tonight, so look for Alex Len to get another start at Center. While this does give him a size-able fantasy boost, I think the Morris brothers will be the biggest beneficiaries. The Thunder have struggled to defend PG’s and PF’s this season and those are the two positions that I am targeting here.

Goran Dragic – Eric Bledsoe is nearing a return to the lineup which should impact Dragic’s fantasy value going forward. But until then, continue to use Dragic. He has a very nice matchup tonight against Westbrook and the Thunder who have given up the 5th most FP’s to PG’s this season. Dragic has topped 33 FP’s in each of his last 3 games and should keep that streak alive tonight. He is dealing with a strained side, but it’s not serious and he is fully expected to play tonight.

Markieff Morris – Morris was a HUGE letdown the other night against the Clippers, but he got into foul trouble early and then never got things going offensively. Before that game, Morris was averaging close to 30 FP’s per game since the All-Star break. I think he will be under-owned tonight and he is primed for a bounce back game.

L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers

Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -10, 226 Over/Under
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Bazemore-Johnson-Gasol

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers have the best matchup on the schedule tonight. They are facing a Lakers team that is giving up 107 points per game this season which is 2nd only to the Sixers. The Lakers are also the league’s worst rebounding team and are ranked 27th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. If there is one team to stack tonight, it’s the Clippers.

Matt Barnes has been on fire over his past few games. With Redick and Crawford both out, he is playing major minutes and has taken on a bigger role in the offense. Darren Collison is also in play, he will draw another start at SG and is affordable on most fantasy sites. With Collison in the lineup, CP3’s production has taken a slight dip which is something to factor in tonight.

Blake Griffin – The Lakers not only own an awful defense, but they are a terrible rebounding team as well. Griffin should have a highlight reel of dunks and easily be able to post double-digit rebounds. The Clippers are projected to score 118 points and Griffin should be involved in a good chunk of them.

DeAndre Jordan – Jordan has reached double-digit rebounds in 14 of his last 15 games and gets to face the weak interior of the Lakers tonight. Did I mention that the Lakers are the league’s worst rebounding team? With only 3 games on the schedule, I will be targeting both bigs from the Clippers tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them combine for 30 rebounds.

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now. They are averaging 113 points per game over their last 4 games and should have another solid outing tonight against the fast-paced Clippers. The Clippers have defended PG’s well all season long though so I will be avoiding both Jordan Farmar and Kendall Marshall. They are splitting time at the point anyway which is never great for potential fantasy production.

The rest of the starters are in play though. Jodie Meeks has consistently topped 35 minutes and 20 FP’s per game and makes a nice cash game play tonight. Wesley Johnson has been very inconsistent, but he is seeing major minutes at PF and he has played well in tough matchups this season. His price is still affordable and Jordan Hill will not play tonight so there really won’t be anyone that challenges him for minutes.

Pau Gasol – While DeAndre Jordan blocks a lot of shots and and grabs a lot of rebounds, he is not a great one on one defender. He is a better weak side defender than an on ball defender. Pau is in a terrific spot tonight and the Lakers offense basically runs through Pau on the majority of their possessions. He has topped 32 FP’s in each of his last 7 games.

Kent Bazemore – A lot of people were worried about Bazemore’s minutes with the addition of Xavier Henry back into the lineup, but he has played at least 27 minutes in 8 straight games and is coming off of a big game against the Pelicans the other night. He is one of the top value plays on the board tonight.