NBA Grind Down: Thursday, May 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -1.5, 196 Over/Under
- San Antonio Spurs Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.0 |  | Vegas Total | 196.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 99.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 4 | Opp. Season | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 5 | Last 3 Weeks | 19 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | |
San Antonio Spurs
Series Record: 2-3
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.8 (1 of 4)
When the Warriors closed out the Blazers last night, it marked the end of the two-game nights remaining on the schedule. For the rest of the way, there will only be one game at most each evening, which means we are going to have two-day slates the rest of the way.
The Thunder shocked everyone with a win over the Spurs in Game 6. San Antonio didn’t get the benefit of a couple of calls late, but the main reason for their loss was their execution down the stretch. It was uncharacteristic of the Spurs not to get any good looks in the last few minutes of a game. The Spurs now have to win on the road in Game 6 in order to keep their championship aspirations alive. If any team is up to the task, it is the Spurs. They are listed as 1.5-point favorites with the highest total of the four teams in this slate.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Kawhi Leonard | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $9,100 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.20 | FP/Min: | 1.19 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.1 | 33.5 | 0.4 | 39.7 | 6.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 37.5 | 40.3 | 2.8 | 44.1 | 6.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 23.3 | 1.0 | 24.1 | 1.9 |
The two are very close in a projection sense, but I slightly prefer Leonard over Kevin Durant in Game 6. He has been terrific in his last three games, averaging 44.1 fantasy points in close to 40 minutes per contest. Leonard actually averages nearly .20 more fantasy points per minute than Durant and now that they are seeing similar playing time, I’ll give the edge to Leonard.
| LaMarcus Aldridge | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $8,700 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.05 | FP/Min: | 1.02 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.6 | 33.7 | 3.1 | 39.4 | 8.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.3 | 35.4 | 3.1 | 33.7 | 1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.0 | 23.5 | 1.6 | 24.8 | 2.8 |
Aldridge was terrific in the first two games of the series, but he has cooled off in the last three. From the floor, he is a combined 22-of-59. It’s no surprise that he failed to reach value in each of those three games. The good news is that he has taken at least 18 shots in every game so far this series. In a must win game for the Spurs, Aldridge should see 40+ minutes.
| Tony Parker | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $5,400 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.82 | FP/Min: | 0.89 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27.5 | 26.8 | -0.7 | 33.0 | 5.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.0 | 21.9 | -1.2 | 28.8 | 5.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 19.5 | 0.6 | 20.2 | 1.3 |
Parker has been a steady source of fantasy production in this series. His fantasy points per game is just under that of Goran Dragic, but Parker is considerably cheaper across the industry. Over the last three games, Parker is averaging 28.8 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He is one of the best values in this two game slate.
Secondary Plays
| Danny Green | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,400 | Salary: | $4,400 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.72 | FP/Min: | 0.72 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 26.1 | 26.3 | 0.2 | 30.4 | 4.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 17.3 | 18.9 | 1.6 | 20.6 | 3.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 12.5 | 10.3 | -2.2 | 8.9 | -3.6 |
Green caught fire in Game 5, but I should point out that the game was at home in front of the Spurs’ crowd. Green hasn’t played nearly as well on the road in this series. While he still makes a strong value play at shooting guard, I don’t consider him a must play. It feels a bit like chasing points. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Manu Ginobili ended up having a better game.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Series Record: 3-2
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.2 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.3 (2 of 4)
The Thunder picked up quite possibly one of the biggest wins that their franchise has ever seen. The Spurs only lost one game at home all season and the Thunder managed to beat them in a game that could eventually decide the series. Oklahoma City’s work is not done yet though, as they now have to take care of business at home in order to move on to the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder are listed as 1.5-point underdogs here in what should be must-watch TV.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Russell Westbrook | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $11,100 | Salary: | $11,100 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.38 | FP/Min: | 1.48 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.4 | 36.2 | 1.8 | 38.4 | 4.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 48.8 | 49.9 | 1.1 | 52.2 | 3.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 28.3 | 30.8 | 2.5 | 32.7 | 4.3 |
Westbrook took over in the second half of Game 5. He finished with 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists. While Kawhi Leonard is the best defender in the NBA, he hasn’t been able to slow Westbrook down. He should be considered the top overall play at any position tonight, as he should see 40+ minutes of action in a potential closeout Game 6.
| Kevin Durant | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $9,400 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.97 | FP/Min: | 1.25 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.8 | 39.4 | 3.6 | 42.6 | 6.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 46.4 | 38.3 | -8.2 | 41.5 | -5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.3 | 26.0 | -0.3 | 24.3 | -2.0 |
Durant has not shot the ball well in this series, but he is still averaging 41.5 fantasy points in his last three games. He is priced at a steep discount on DraftKings, which puts him in play in all league formats. At their respective price points, I am going to try to work both of them into my DraftKings lineup. For FanDuel, it makes sense to pair Leonard with one of the cheaper small forwards from the Raptors/Heat game.
Secondary Plays
| Steven Adams | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $5,900 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.76 | FP/Min: | 0.67 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.2 | 31.3 | 6.1 | 37.4 | 12.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 19.3 | 23.9 | 4.6 | 26.0 | 6.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.4 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 8.4 | -2.0 |
If you haven’t been paying attention, Adams has been playing an absurd number of minutes in this series. He has played at least 35 in each of the last four games and he has scored at least 27 fantasy points in three of those outings. He is a strong pivot off of Bismack Biyombo in tournaments and you can even look to pair both on sites that allow you to roster two centers.
| Enes Kanter | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,900 | Salary: | $4,800 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.03 | FP/Min: | 1.13 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 21.0 | 21.7 | 0.7 | 25.7 | 4.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.8 | 22.3 | -0.5 | 21.3 | -1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.4 | 16.4 | -3.0 | 11.5 | -7.9 |
The Spurs didn’t have an answer for the Westbrook-Waiters-Durant-Kanter-Adams lineup in Game 5. It will be interesting to see if the Thunder go that route early, or if they wait until the second half again. Either way, it could mean more minutes for Kanter. I prefer to target Bismack Biyombo or Steven Adams in cash games, but Kanter is an interesting pivot in GPPs.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -4.5, 190 Over/Under
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Patterson-Biyombo
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Stoudemire
| Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190.0 |  | Vegas Total | 190.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.30 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Patrick Patterson | Bismack Biyombo | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Amar’e Stoudemire | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 8 | Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 26 | Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | |
Toronto Raptors
Series Record: 3-2
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 92.8 (4 of 4)
The Raptors almost blew another fourth quarter lead, but Kyle Lowry came up with some huge buckets down the stretch in Game 5. They now head back to Miami up 3-2 and are a single win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. DeMarre Carroll went down with a wrist injury in Game 5, but x-rays were negative and he is fully expected to play in Game 6. Jonas Valanciunas remains out with his ankle injury. The Raptors have the lowest team total on the board, but this game should be close throughout. Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross are both viable punt plays at their respective positions.
- Injury Watch:
Jonas Valanciunas (Out)
DeMarre Carroll (Probable)
Elite Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $8,000 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.83 | FP/Min: | 1.04 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37.0 | 39.5 | 2.5 | 38.3 | 1.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 32.9 | -5.6 | 41.7 | 3.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 21.1 | -1.8 | 24.4 | 1.5 |
Lowry seems to be over his elbow injury. Over his last three games, he is averaging 41.7 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. His playing time would be even higher if he didn’t get into foul trouble in Game 4. Look for him to play 40+ minutes in a potential closeout Game 6 in Miami. Even though his price has come up, he is still an elite play in this two game slate.
| Bismack Biyombo | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,600 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.84 | FP/Min: | 0.95 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 22.0 | 20.3 | -1.7 | 27.1 | 5.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.4 | 17.1 | -1.4 | 23.1 | 4.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.1 | 8.6 | -0.5 | 8.6 | -0.5 |
Biyombo has made the most of his starts all season and that has continued in the playoffs. In his last two starts, he has scored 35 and 25 fantasy points. His effectiveness was diminished in the second half of Game 5 (thanks to a smaller lineup from Miami), but he is still the safest cash game target on the board.
Secondary Plays
| DeMarre Carroll | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $4,600 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.56 | FP/Min: | 0.68 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.2 | 31.5 | 1.3 | 33.9 | 3.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.8 | 17.6 | -3.3 | 15.8 | -5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 12.2 | -3.6 | 12.5 | -3.2 |
If you feel like Carroll is 100% healthy and will be able to play a full complement of minutes, then don’t hesitate to play him in Game 6. He has played well in this series and the Raptors have leaned on him to play some power forward with Jonas Valanciunas out.
| Patrick Patterson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,700 | Salary: | $4,000 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.49 | FP/Min: | 0.57 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.6 | 28.3 | 2.7 | 38.9 | 13.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.3 | 13.8 | -1.5 | 14.4 | -0.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.9 | 10.8 | -0.1 | 9.2 | -1.7 |
Do you like targeting players that play 40 minutes and score 13 fantasy points? If so, Patterson is the guy for you. He has not been very productive in this series, but he offers good value at a position that doesn’t have many choices. Patterson is worth a look in all league formats, but temper your expectations.
Miami Heat
Series Record: 2-3
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.3 (2 of 4)
The Heat were unable to pick up a win in Toronto in Game 5. They now have to win each of the next two games in order to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. As I am writing this, it is early Thursday and there has yet to be an update on the status of Hassan Whiteside. For the Thursday/Friday slate, we should assume that he is going to sit and then adjust tomorrow if needed. Luol Deng hurt his wrist in Game 5 and is currently listed as questionable for Game 6. The Heat are listed as 4.5-point favorites with the second highest team total on the board.
- Injury Watch:
Hassan Whiteside (Doubtful)
Luol Deng (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Dwyane Wade | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,200 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.07 | FP/Min: | 1.01 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.5 | 33.5 | 3.0 | 36.3 | 5.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 35.8 | 4.2 | 41.6 | 10.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.8 | 26.6 | -0.2 | 28.8 | 2.0 |
Wade has really played well in the last three games in this series, averaging 41.6 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. The last time the Heat were in this situation (against Charlotte), Wade took over and willed his team to two straight victories. Look for the Heat to lean on him early and often in a win or stay home Game 6.
| Joe Johnson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,700 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.63 | FP/Min: | 0.67 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.4 | 35.9 | 2.5 | 37.0 | 3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.2 | 22.7 | 0.6 | 24.5 | 2.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.6 | 15.2 | -0.4 | 15.5 | -0.1 |
With Hassan Whiteside and Luol Deng statuses both up in the air, Johnson could end up playing 40+ minutes. In fact, even if they both play, Johnson could still see 40+ minutes. He has been productive so far in this series and he is a safer mid-range small forward option than DeMarre Carroll.
Secondary Plays
| Goran Dragic | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,200 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.77 | FP/Min: | 0.88 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.8 | 33.0 | 0.2 | 37.0 | 4.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.3 | 25.4 | -1.8 | 19.7 | -7.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 20.4 | 1.5 | 18.2 | -0.7 |
Dragic has struggled to stay out of foul trouble, but he has played well while on the floor. I wish his price was a bit cheaper though, as it makes sense to just go down to Tony Parker at point guard. Dragic is an interesting GPP play though, as the Heat may need to lean on him a bit more offensively.
| Justise Winslow | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,500 | Salary: | $3,500 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.53 | FP/Min: | 0.69 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 28.6 | 24.2 | -4.4 | 31.9 | 3.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.1 | 12.9 | -3.2 | 15.4 | -0.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.1 | 10.3 | 0.2 | 10.0 | -0.1 |
In the two games that Hassan Whiteside has missed, Winslow has averaged 32 minutes and 15 fantasy points per game. He was looking for his own shot in Game 5, which was a nice sight to see. He is a viable punt option on both FanDuel and DraftKings.