NBA Grind Down: Thursday, May 3rd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Kyle Korver | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 20 | DvP | 21 | 26 | 26 | 13 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 5 | 27 | 21 | 15 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
As I mentioned before Game 1, I’m not going to believe in LeBron James losing in the second round until it actually happens. Somehow, some way, he forced overtime in Game 1 and at that point, you knew the Cavaliers were going to pull off the upset. With home-court advantage in hand, it will be interesting to see how Cleveland plays tonight. They come into the game as 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 103 points. I sense a slight letdown for Cleveland, but my spidey sense hasn’t exactly been humming this postseason.
The Cavaliers played their bigger lineup for most of the fourth quarter and overtime. I don’t see a reason to start George Hill over Tristan Thompson at this point. Cleveland has won their last two games with Thompson playing big minutes. If Hill remains in the starting lineup, he becomes an intriguing play on FanDuel ($3,800) where we have to roster two point guards. If he’s coming off the bench, we can avoid him in all formats. J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver should both see minutes in the low 30s again. LeBron seems to trust them more than the likes of Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood. Both are viable once again, but not core plays for me on the road.
LeBron James is a great play anytime he steps on the floor in the playoffs. With that said, his price is finally getting to a point where a fade should at least be in consideration. LeBron is extremely expensive on both sites and we’ve seen the prices of Tristan Thompson and Fred VanVleet come up, which tightens the cap even more. I’m not saying to fade LeBron, but I do prefer Joel Embiid when you factor in salaries. Kevin Love is only averaging 0.74 fantasy points per minute in the playoffs. At this point, we have to start considering other options. I’m tempted by the price point, but not sure I can play Love given his form. With Larry Nance out of the rotation in Game 1, Jeff Green logged 27 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points. He’s viable in tournaments and should come in at low ownership. Thompson has scored 31 and 28 fantasy points in the last two games. It reminds me of the run he went on when Cleveland won the championship. I’ll keep playing him until his price matches his production.
Notable Injuries
None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -7.9 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 20.0 | -5.7 | 27.0 | -5.1 | 0.74 | 15.6% | 7 | 10 | 2 |
| Kyle Korver | $4,200 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 15.4 | 0.3 | 21.6 | 3.2 | 0.71 | 14.2% | 5 | 3 | 22 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,500 | $4,500 | $9,400 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 28.1 | 5.1 | 0.59 | 12.5% | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| LeBron James | $13,500 | $12,100 | $23,100 | 54.2 | 8.0 | 36.9 | 5.0 | 1.47 | 30.1% | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Kevin Love | $6,500 | $6,000 | $11,600 | 33.1 | -8.7 | 28.0 | 4.9 | 1.18 | 21.9% | 10 | 20 | 21 |
| Jeff Green | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 23.4 | -1.8 | 0.78 | 16.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,500 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 15.7 | -1.5 | 20.2 | -3.3 | 0.78 | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Tristan Thompson, George Hill (FD – if starting), Jeff Green (GPP)
Secondary Plays – George Hill (DK – if starting), Jeff Green (Cash), J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, Kevin Love
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors can’t seem to get over that mental hurdle against LeBron James. He has had their number in the postseason and that continued in Game 1. From a talent standpoint, Toronto is far above Cleveland, but they don’t have the closer that is LeBron. I still like their chances in this series, but a win in Game 2 is absolutely necessary. They come into the game with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the highest on the board. They also have the best projected point differential on the board.
Kyle Lowry needs to limit his mistakes, but he did score 36 fantasy points in Game 1. He doesn’t grade out as an elite point-per-dollar option, but he’s basically the only reliable point guard in the entire slate. For that reason alone, he’s viable in all formats. DeMar DeRozan had a hot start, but couldn’t get anything to drop in the second half. In a must win game at home, he’s worth a look in all formats and once again, you can pair him with Lowry. Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, and C.J. Miles should all see around 18-22 minutes tonight. If I had to rank them, I’d go Miles, VanVleet, and then Wright. At least one of them is going to have a big game, we just have to figure out which one it’s going to be.
OG Anunoby played well in Game 1, but his price has come up across the industry. He’s fine if you need a punt at small forward, but I’d rather play C.J. Miles. Serge Ibaka is on the same island as Kevin Love. Nobody can seem to find them. In the playoffs, he is averaging 0.72 fantasy points per minute. I like the matchup and his price is considerably cheap than Love’s, so I may give him another shot. Pascal Siakam is a decent pivot in tournaments, but it’s hard to rely on a bench player that we can’t rely on to play more than 16-18 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas was a beast in Game 1, scoring 49 fantasy points. He has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and has a great track record against the Cavaliers. The only issue is that we can only roster one center on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
Fred VanVleet (Probable)
Serge Ibaka (Probable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $7,800 | $15,800 | 34.9 | 3.5 | 32.2 | 4.4 | 1.08 | 21.8% | 21 | 21 | 22 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,700 | $8,400 | $15,900 | 37.5 | 1.2 | 33.9 | 3.0 | 1.11 | 28.5% | 20 | 26 | 5 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 12.1 | 2.1 | 20.0 | 3.1 | 0.60 | 10.9% | 28 | 26 | 27 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,600 | $4,900 | $10,300 | 25.3 | -4.7 | 27.5 | 1.2 | 0.92 | 16.9% | 23 | 13 | 21 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $7,000 | $6,900 | $12,800 | 27.1 | 6.2 | 22.4 | 3.6 | 1.21 | 19.2% | 9 | 10 | 15 |
| Delon Wright | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 20.8 | 2.8 | 0.92 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 18.9 | -9.1 | 20.0 | -7.8 | 0.94 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| C.J. Miles | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 15.6 | -1.4 | 19.1 | 2.3 | 0.82 | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, C.J. Miles, Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (DK)
Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (FD), Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 8:30 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Marcus Smart | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 2 | DvP | 15 | 15 | 20 | 9 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 25 | 1 | 19 | 2 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers were -400 to win this series before it began. While we shouldn’t be alarmed by them losing Game 1, many were expecting them to dominate right from the start. I’ll still take Philadelphia in this series, as they only need to steal one game in Boston to take home-court advantage. They are the favorites again tonight and have an implied total of 105 points. While it’s considerably lower than their season average, that’s to be expected this deep into the playoffs.
Ben Simmons finally appeared to be human in Game 1. He committed seven turnovers and failed to reach double-digits in terms of points, rebounds, or assists. The Celtics have a very good defense, but I’m not overly concerned. All I see is a discounted player that does everything on the floor well. If you are going to roll out the LeBron James fade, it makes sense to pay up for Simmons. J.J. Redick is regularly playing minutes in the low 30s and his price is reasonable across the industry. He’s an elite play in all formats. Marco Belinelli is also viable on FanDuel at a price of only $4,200. There will be a time to play Robert Covington in this series, but I’m going to wait until the series shifts back to Philadelphia.
Dario Saric is going to fly under the radar tonight. While power forward is loaded, he’s a natural pivot off of Kevin Love, who projects to carry more ownership. Personally, I will have so much exposure to Simmons and Joel Embiid that I don’t really want to play all three. Speaking of Embiid, he has averaged 49 fantasy points against the Celtics this season. He played 35 minutes and scored 58 fantasy points in Game 1. I’m going right back to the well in both cash games and tournaments. As I alluded to earlier, he’s my favorite superstar to pay up for tonight.
Notable Injuries
None
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,900 | $9,400 | $17,800 | 42.2 | 5.2 | 33.7 | 4.5 | 1.25 | 22.8% | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,400 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 24.9 | 2.3 | 30.2 | 2.2 | 0.82 | 20.2% | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Robert Covington | $6,000 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 28.3 | -4.7 | 31.6 | -2.2 | 0.89 | 15.2% | 5 | 24 | 3 |
| Dario Saric | $6,300 | $6,500 | $13,500 | 27.6 | 2.9 | 29.6 | 0.7 | 0.93 | 18.6% | 17 | 2 | 2 |
| Joel Embiid | $9,400 | $9,300 | $17,100 | 44.4 | 1.1 | 30.3 | 1.2 | 1.47 | 28.2% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,200 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 19.0 | 5.5 | 24.3 | 6.0 | 0.78 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 22.8 | 2.1 | 25.1 | 0.9 | 0.91 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, J.J. Redick
Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli (FD), Dario Saric (GPP)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics picked up a huge win in Game 1 without Jaylen Brown. He is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but they are also saying that he’s a game-time decision. By all accounts, he appears more likely to play in Game 3. Even though it’s a tall task, the Celtics need to win here to maintain home-court advantage. They come into the game as 4.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 100.5 points.
To quote the great Michael Scott, “It takes a big man to admit his mistakes, and I am that big man.” I was dead wrong on Terry Rozier in Game 1. He showed up and he showed out, scoring 56 fantasy points. While that was an amazing performance, the Sixers were one of the best teams in the NBA against point guards this season. Rozier is now more expensive and he’s likely going to garner high ownership. It could cost me again, but I will be fading Rozier in all formats. As long as Jaylen Brown is ruled out, Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum are viable plays in all formats. Smart is incredibly inconsistent, but provides upside with his ability to rack up blocks and steals. Tatum is more consistent and could push for 38-40 minutes.
Al Horford has been a bright spot for the Celtics in the playoffs, averaging 35 minutes and 38 fantasy points. While he does benefit from not having to cover Joel Embiid, there are too many options at center for me to consider him a core play. I prefer both Embiid and Jonas Valanciunas. Marcus Morris is a more reliable option at power forward than Serge Ibaka and he’s played very well at home throughout the playoffs. If Brown is out again, I will consider Morris an elite play in all formats. Aron Baynes is an intriguing value play here. He logged 29 minutes in Game 1. Anything close to that and he should be able to return value at his cheap price point.
Notable Injuries
Jaylen Brown (Doubtful)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $8,400 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 23.9 | 14.9 | 25.9 | 9.9 | 0.92 | 20.0% | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Marcus Smart | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 24.3 | -0.9 | 29.9 | -1.1 | 0.81 | 18.3% | 15 | 15 | 25 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,800 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 26.0 | 5.6 | 30.5 | 3.6 | 0.85 | 17.0% | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Al Horford | $7,700 | $7,300 | $13,400 | 32.1 | 5.6 | 31.6 | 3.1 | 1.02 | 17.8% | 7 | 9 | 19 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 15.8 | -0.8 | 18.3 | 0.6 | 0.87 | 14.8% | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,500 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.2 | -2.6 | 26.7 | 0.9 | 0.87 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Semi Ojeleye | $2,000 | $2,800 | $6,000 | 6.7 | -1.1 | 15.8 | 2.8 | 0.42 | 8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |