NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Dejounte Murray | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 19 | DvP | 12 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 28 | |
| DRPM | -0.74 | 2.10 | 2.92 | 1.25 | 1.43 | DRPM | 0.24 | -0.91 | 1.35 | 5.08 | 3.61 | |
We only have two games on the schedule tonight, which makes it a bit tricky to build lineups. In cash games, we aren’t too worried about ownership, but keep in mind that there will be a lot of overlap tonight. I generally like to reduce my cash game play in these smaller slates because I don’t love having my whole night come down to a 1v1 or a 2v2. In tournaments, we need to roster the highest scoring players, but we also need to create a unique lineup, which is tricky. When there are only two games, it’s hard to go completely contrarian because there are only so many options to choose from. My advice is to eat the chalk that you like and look to pivot away from a popular play or two that you could see having a bad game.
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
None
The Warriors have already lost three games this season, despite having one of the best point differentials (+6.9) in the Western Conference. They have continued to play at a fast pace, but have struggled on the defensive end of floor. They are typically a top ten team in defensive efficiency, but are currently ranked 25th. If that trend continues, we’ll be able to target their opponents more often this season. As for tonight’s matchup, it’s not exactly ideal. The Spurs are ranked 25th in pace of play and fifth in defensive efficiency. We shouldn’t rely too heavily on last season, but in their three meetings, the Warriors scored 100, 85, and 110 points. Golden State’s implied total of 111.8 points is the highest on the board, but it is nearly ten points below their season average.
Stephen Curry is basically matchup-proof, but he’s not immune to the slow pace of play from the Spurs. The Warriors should see fewer possessions tonight, which is never ideal for fantasy production. In two games against the Spurs last season, Curry scored 35 and 55 fantasy points. Curry is not a bad play by any means, but it’s hard not to side with Damian Lillard in a home matchup against the Lakers. Klay Thompson draws a difficult matchup against Danny Green, who is an underrated defender (2.10 DRPM last season). Seeing as how he relies on points for such a large portion of his fantasy production, he’s a tough sell even at his discounted price point.
Kevin Durant should benefit the most from Kawhi Leonard being out. While Kyle Anderson and Rudy Gay are both solid defenders, they are no match for Durant. In his one outing against San Antonio last season, Durant finished with 55 fantasy points. The one plus to the Warriors tonight is that their superstars should all see a full complement of minutes with the spread set at 7.5 points. Draymond Green peripheral statistics are off the charts, but he has a 14.6% true usage and a difficult matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge. There’s a chance I end up going with two stud power forwards tonight, but of the two, I prefer Aldridge.
As for the role players on Golden State, there isn’t a lot to love. Zaza Pachulia is only averaging 15 minutes per game and we know that these teams don’t mind playing small ball with Green and Aldridge as their centers. Andre Iguodala should see plenty of minutes, but he has not shot the ball well (50% true shooting) and he has been anything but aggressive (10% true usage). If the peripheral stats aren’t there for Iggy, he’ll likely have another poor fantasy outing.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 121.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -9.3 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,500 | $9,000 | $17,800 | 46.0 | 33.1 | 1.39 | 28.2% | 68.8% | 3 | -0.74 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,800 | $6,700 | $13,800 | 33.1 | 34.2 | 0.97 | 20.9% | 62.4% | 15 | 2.10 |
| Kevin Durant | $9,900 | $9,700 | $19,900 | 46.6 | 36.4 | 1.28 | 23.9% | 65.7% | 6 | 2.92 |
| Draymond Green | $7,700 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 31.4 | 30.6 | 1.03 | 14.6% | 53.5% | 11 | 1.25 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,000 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 12.4 | 14.6 | 0.85 | 11.5% | 50.6% | 19 | 1.43 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 16.3 | 26.6 | 0.61 | 9.6% | 49.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Shaun Livingston | $3,200 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 10.7 | 15.8 | 0.68 | 14.4% | 53.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry (DK)
Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (GPP), Stephen Curry (FD & FDRFT), Draymond Green
San Antonio Spurs
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
The Spurs have managed to keep their head above water while they wait for their MVP candidate to return from injury. San Antonio is not a team that is looking to push the pace, as evidenced by their points per game (98.1) and points allowed per game (98.9). Greg Popovich knows that this team has no chance at beating the Warriors in a track meet. Even though San Antonio will try to slow the game down, this is still a pace-up spot against Golden State, which leads to more possessions and ultimately to more fantasy points. The Spurs have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is six points above their season average.
Between these two teams, I will have more exposure to the Spurs than I will to the Warriors. They have the better matchup and their players are cheaper. Dejounte Murray is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute this season with a true usage rate over 20%. His playing time has been erratic, but I’m expecting 28-30 minutes tonight. He is their best shot of slowing Stephen Curry down, as Patty Mills is more of a one-dimensional player. Murray is an excellent value on FanDuel ($4,600) and he makes an appealing tournament play on DraftKings ($5,500). As for Mills, it’s only a matter of time before he heats up. He currently has a 39% true shooting, which is nearly 20 percentage points lower than last season. At his price point, I’m willing to take a shot on him in tournaments in a pace-up game against the Warriors.
Danny Green is only averaging 30 minutes per game on the season, but the Spurs have been on the wrong end of a couple blowouts. In close games, we’ve seen Green play between 32-34 minutes. He’s not exactly a creator on offense, but he should get some open looks in transition tonight. Kyle Anderson provides decent value at small forward, although if Al-Farouq Aminu ends up being out, it makes more sense to play Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner at similar price points. The same argument can be applied to Rudy Gay, who has played well, but is only averaging 23 minutes per game this season.
Even though Draymond Green is one of the best individual defenders in basketball, LaMarcus Aldridge had some success against him last year, scoring 36 and 51 fantasy points in their two meetings. The best part is that Kawhi Leonard played in both of those games. With Leonard out, we’ve seen Aldridge’s usage go through the roof (27% this season). He’s far and away my favorite play on the Spurs and my favorite play at power forward. Pau Gasol is always productive while on the floor (1.18 FP/min) and the Warriors have really struggled against opposing centers this season (28th in fantasy points allowed). The question is whether or not Popovich can afford to keep him on the floor when Golden State plays small. Gasol had mixed results against the Warriors last season, scoring 8, 23, and 40 fantasy points.
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 98.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 6.2 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.1 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.7 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | $4,600 | $5,500 | $11,500 | 23.6 | 24.9 | 0.95 | 20.5% | 43.5% | 12 | 0.24 |
| Danny Green | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 24.3 | 29.7 | 0.82 | 15.9% | 54.1% | 25 | -0.91 |
| Kyle Anderson | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 21.3 | 26.6 | 0.80 | 15.0% | 47.3% | 16 | 1.35 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,100 | $8,300 | $15,000 | 40.9 | 34.0 | 1.20 | 27.1% | 55.9% | 21 | 5.08 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,100 | $5,400 | $9,800 | 28.7 | 24.3 | 1.18 | 18.8% | 54.0% | 28 | 3.61 |
| Rudy Gay | $5,300 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 25.1 | 23.3 | 1.08 | 20.8% | 57.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Patty Mills | $3,400 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 12.0 | 22.4 | 0.53 | 18.7% | 38.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Manu Ginobili | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.6 | 20.3 | 0.77 | 21.3% | 41.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray (FD), Danny Green (FD)
Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray (DK & FDRFT), Danny Green (DK & FDRFT), Kyle Anderson, Pau Gasol (GPP), Patty Mills
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Maurice Harkless | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | DvP | 21 | 26 | 5 | 28 | 8 | |
| DRPM | -1.39 | -1.93 | -0.28 | 0.33 | 2.56 | DRPM | N/A | -1.01 | -2.88 | 1.84 | 0.37 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
None
Both of the games on the schedule tonight have shootout potential. The difference between the two is the expected pace. While the other game has a higher total, it has more to do with the efficiency of both offenses than it does the pace of play. The Lakers are currently ranked fourth in pace and we know the Blazers don’t mind getting into a track meet at home. I was happy to see the spread at only seven points, as it suggests that the game will stay competitive throughout. In terms of the Lakers’ matchup, this isn’t the same Blazers’ team that we’ve seen in year’s past. They have really stepped up their play on defense this season, ranking sixth in points allowed per game and first in rebounding differential.
The way to attack Portland is with a good backcourt. Even without Al-Farouq Aminu in the lineup, the Blazers still have a good defensive frontcourt. They struggle to defend point guards and shooting guards, which bodes well for Lonzo Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Ball has not shot the ball well this season (40% true shooting), yet he is still averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. His ability to fill up the stat sheet puts him on my radar nearly every time out. My preferred point guard combination tonight is to pair Lillard with either Ball (DK) or Dejounte Murray (FD) and then use Stephen Curry more in tournaments.
Caldwell-Pope is about as inconsistent of a player as you’ll find. In five games this season, he’s had two good ones, two bad ones, and an average one. Tonight’s matchup against C.J. McCollum bodes well for him, especially if the Blazers decide to start Evan Turner at the three. I mention this because that would force Maurice Harkless (who is a good defender) to guard Larry Nance. I hate to say it, but I’m down with KCP (yeah, you know me). Brandon Ingram is a sneaky tournament play tonight. Everyone will look to the Kevin Durant and the value Blazers’ forwards, which will lead to lower ownership for Ingram. He’s a bit too volatile to trust in cash games, though.
The Lakers’ frontcourt is an absolute mess right now. Larry Nance, Brook Lopez, and Julius Randle are all averaging less than 24 minutes a game. Nance is my favorite of the three, but I hate relying on him to score 25+ fantasy points in such limited playing time. Oddly enough, Kyle Kuzma is averaging more minutes than anyone in this frontcourt at 26.5 per game. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in six of his first seven NBA games. He’s my favorite play from the Lakers’ frontcourt, even though this is not an ideal matchup.
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,000 | $7,100 | $14,500 | 31.8 | 34.0 | 0.93 | 19.8% | 40.1% | 9 | -1.39 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,000 | $5,100 | $9,400 | 23.3 | 31.3 | 0.74 | 16.1% | 49.9% | 13 | -1.93 |
| Brandon Ingram | $5,900 | $5,800 | $12,300 | 26.7 | 31.7 | 0.84 | 19.5% | 50.3% | 9 | -0.28 |
| Larry Nance | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 26.5 | 23.7 | 1.12 | 15.4% | 63.6% | 4 | 0.33 |
| Brook Lopez | $5,300 | $5,600 | $10,300 | 24.8 | 23.4 | 1.06 | 21.0% | 48.9% | 13 | 2.56 |
| Julius Randle | $4,700 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 22.6 | 19.1 | 1.18 | 19.4% | 66.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Kuzma | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.1 | 26.5 | 0.87 | 18.0% | 61.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 20.1 | 19.6 | 1.03 | 28.1% | 56.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lonzo Ball (DK), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (FD & FDRFT), Brandon Ingram (GPP), Kyle Kuzma
Portland Trail Blazers
Notable Injuries
Al-Farouq Aminu (Doubtful)
The Blazers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Jazz in overtime last night. This would typically be a tough spot for a team (especially with travel late last night), but Portland is lucky enough to be facing the Lakers. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked fourth in pace of play. The Blazers come into the game as 7-point favorites with an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the second highest of the slate and two points higher than their season average.
Damian Lillard is going to be the chalk of all chalk. If you want to pivot off of him in tournaments and load up on the rest of the Blazers, I don’t hate that strategy in large-field tournaments that are top-heavy in payouts. Personally, I will be eating the chalk and will look to differentiate elsewhere. He gets to face a rookie point guard in Lonzo Ball and so far the Lakers have struggling against the position, allowing the tenth most fantasy points. C.J. McCollum draws a fairly difficult matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While his DRPM was negative last season, KCP has to defend the opponent’s best wing player every night, so points are going to be scored against him. If I only have the money for one, I’d rather play Lillard over McCollum.
Al-Farouq Aminu sprained his wrist and his ankle last night against the Jazz and didn’t return to the game. There hasn’t been an official update from the Blazers on his status, but I’m going to list him as doubtful. If he ends up playing, you can scrap everything that I say here. Assuming he’s out, Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner will both see a significant boost in playing time. Their minute projections would both be above 30, making them elite value plays in this small slate. We would also see a few extra minutes for the likes of Pat Connaughton, Noah Vonleh, and Ed Davis.
The downside with targeting a center against the Lakers is that Brook Lopez tends to pull his defender away from the rim, which leads to less rebounding opportunities. The upside is that the Lakers don’t defend the paint all that well. In a bigger slate, I wouldn’t use Jusuf Nurkic as a core play, but do we really trust Pau Gasol or Lopez over him? He deserves to be considered the top center on the board and he’s coming off of his best start of the season, scoring 45 fantasy points against the Jazz last night.
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.1 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,800 | $9,300 | $18,900 | 44.5 | 36.3 | 1.23 | 30.3% | 55.2% | 21 | N/A |
| C.J. McCollum | $8,000 | $7,700 | $15,900 | 34.1 | 36.1 | 0.94 | 24.9% | 56.1% | 26 | -1.01 |
| Evan Turner | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 23.9 | 28.7 | 0.83 | 15.4% | 53.9% | 5 | -2.88 |
| Maurice Harkless | $4,800 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 19.4 | 28.9 | 0.67 | 12.8% | 49.2% | 28 | 1.84 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,400 | $5,900 | $12,800 | 27.6 | 27.1 | 1.02 | 23.3% | 47.0% | 8 | 0.37 |
| Pat Connaughton | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 12.0 | 21.5 | 0.56 | 14.5% | 63.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Noah Vonleh | $3,100 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 5.2 | 13.0 | 0.40 | 15.5% | 57.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Ed Davis | $4,600 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 1.14 | 15.3% | 53.0% | N/A | N/A |