NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 18th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-19 02:29:53

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		193.0					Vegas Total		193.0
			Vegas Spread		7.5					Vegas Spread		-7.5
			Team Total		92.8					Team Total		100.3
			Pace +/-		-1.6					Pace +/-		-2.0
Proj. Starter	Malcolm Brogdon	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Thon Maker		Proj. Starter	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	DeMarre Carroll	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	11	3	3	5	10		Adj. DvP	16	7	10	7	15
DRPM	0.62	-2.21	1.09	0.84	0.71		DRPM	-0.73	-0.79	0.54	1.49	-0.53

Milwaukee Bucks

• Notable Injuries: None

• Milwaukee Bucks Offense
  Points Per Game: 103.6 (20 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 92.8 (6 of 6)
  Projected Point Differential: -10.9 (6 of 6)
  Pace of Play: 96.7 (26 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -1.6 (4 of 6)

• Toronto Raptors Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (8 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (8 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (8 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.5 (6 of 30)

Milwaukee took Game 1 on the road with their defense. Coach Jason Kidd has notoriously weird rotations that change frequently, but we got a sense of what he plans to do in this series. For one, only Matthew Dellavedova (32 minutes) and Greg Monroe (26 minutes) played more than ten minutes off the bench. Kidd really liked what he got from running Malcolm Brogdon (34 minutes) and Delly together to stop the Raptors’ guards while he deployed Monroe at center as a response to Toronto’s small ball lineup with Ibaka at center. Kidd also kept Khris Middleton out there for 41 minutes. In two separate stretches, these four played a combined 12 minutes together – five with Tony Snell and seven with Giannis Antetokounmpo – and they had a defensive rating under 50 in each segment of time. Based on this success we should expect a similar approach going forward.

Kidd’s strategy makes Middleton an appealing target; for a guy playing 40 minutes a night, who commanded a 24.4% usage rate this season and used it to return 0.84 FD ppm, $6k seems like a sweet deal. As highlighted in the series preview in Saturday’s Grind Down, Middleton is a balanced shooter, most frequently launching from 15-19 feet from the hoop. That happens to be Toronto’s softest area, as they allowed the eighth-highest field goal percentage from there after the break (42.0%). In Game 1, Middleton found his way there, taking eight of his 15 shots from that range. He only connected on two of them though and shot 26.7% overall. He should continue to take plenty of shots and will have more success over the course of the series. With some great passing, he made up for his lack of scoring with nine assists. That rate seems unsustainable as he assisted 31.8% of their field goals, well above his normal rate of 17.5%, but it’s an indication that we may be able to expect his assist rate to rise in the postseason. He should at least improve upon his 3.4-assist average, as he’s getting a ten-minute boost during the playoffs.

Antetokounmpo contributed three assist in Game 1, 2.4 below his average. By way of his 29.4% usage rate, the Alphabet had an assist rate of 26.5% during the season; we should see better in the category. He did well rebounding, snagging eight, using his length against the Raptors’ small lineup. While his team was out-rebounded overall, he still found success individually because of Toronto’s lineup strategy. Jonas Valanciunas is a major rebounding threat, but they aren’t giving him a ton of minutes. Antetokounmpo was able to successfully attack the basket as well, taking 12 of his 18 shots from within five feet of the hoop, making nine of them. After the break, Toronto allowed the eighth-fewest shot attempts from that close and held opponents to the 11th-lowest field goal percentage (59.1%). The Greek Freak is a unique player though and they could continue to have trouble slowing him down with the small lineup. While we can’t expect him to make 72.2% of his shots every night, we can safely assume he’ll keep up his shooting pace; it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take over 20 shots in a game or two. Similar to DeRozan, he shoots a ton of free throws, the eighth-most in the league (7.7 per game) and he earned 25.8% of his points from the line. Fortunately for him, the Raptors had a poor opponent free throw rate this season of 28.6%, which was the seventh-highest in the league.

Malcolm Brogdon was another guy with a nice shooting night, making 4-of-7 threes on his way to 16 points. Over the past four weeks, things have been coming together for Brogdon, his FD ppm has increased 0.09 above his average to 0.89. With Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Monroe soaking up usage, his own usage rate barely budged, but it was up slightly; 0.6% to 19.8%. He managed a 24.4% assist rate on the year and he’s been a relatively effective rebounder for a guard. These peripherals give him a nice floor and he’s posted at least 20 FD points in 15 of his last 20 games. With Delly on the floor, he ended up seeing a lot of DeRozan instead of Lowry in Game 1, which worked in his favor. He’s not a huge ceiling guy, but he’s going to get plenty of minutes, making him a viable option that may be better suited for cash games.

Tony Snell scored 20 FD points in 24 minutes, which seems like an unsustainable rate, given his average return was 0.52 FD ppm and his usage was 12.9% during the regular season. There are too many guys above him for Snell to become a reliable fantasy target. Greg Monroe, on the other hand, has been a great per-minute player this season, producing 1.09 FD ppm. It looks like Kidd will use him in this series for 26-28 minutes a night, which is a bit frustrating. However, if Valanciunas doesn’t get more time, Monroe will get some run against an exploitable lineup. He pulled down 15 boards in Game 1. That rate isn’t sustainable inside his allotted minutes, but he could certainly get up into the double-digits. In terms of scoring, he averaged 11.7 points per game in 22.5 mpg this season, so his 14 points in Game 1 seems like a reasonable pace. Essentially, Monroe has upside, but it’s hard for him to be a great fantasy option when he’s playing less than 30 a night. He’s $700 cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel, so it may be better to get exposure on him there. Fellow bench player, Matthew Dellavedova played 30 minutes and produced 11.2 FD points. This is something we can expect, he isn’t a strong fantasy player.

Although there are three or four players that look like solid fantasy targets, it may not be the best game to stack. Vegas has the game total at 193.0, the lowest on the night, and Milwaukee has an implied total of 92.8, also the lowest on the night, which is 10.9 points below their average. One of the other three games has a 195.5 total and the other is at 205.5. Plus, four teams have implied totals at least 6.5-points below their average, so there isn’t a huge opportunity cost from taking players from this game, but it’s something to keep in mind with roster construction.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon, Greg Monroe

Toronto Raptors

• Notable Injuries: Serge Ibaka (ankle, probable)

• Toronto Raptors Offense
  Points Per Game: 106.9 (10 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 100.3 (3 of 6)
  Projected Point Differential: -6.7 (4 of 6)
  Pace of Play: 97.1 (22 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -2.0 (5 of 6)

• Milwaukee Bucks Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.6 (11 of 30)

Toronto’s offense struggled in Game 1. They posted an offensive rating of 89.7 and an effective field goal percentage of 39.3%. While they outrebounded the Bucks, grabbing 52.2% of the available boards, and didn’t turn the ball over too much (11.9% of possessions), they couldn’t force turnovers (5.7%). In the end, it came down to shooting or lack of it. Kyle Lowry continued to struggle in the playoffs, he was 0-for-6 from deep and 2-for-11 overall. Lowry has the second-lowest field goal percentage in the playoffs of any active player with at least 500 attempts (37.9%). Across 20 games in the postseason last year, Lowry’s per-game averages were worse as compared to his regular season numbers in every box score stat besides rebounds and total made field goals – his points were still down as he made fewer threes and free throws – despite an uptick in minutes. This year feels different. He had his best shooting season of his career, connecting on 46.4% of his field goals, an improvement of 3.7% year-over-year, and he hit 41.2% of his threes, a 2.4% bump over his previous best and good for 13th in the NBA. For good measure, he produced career-highs in assists and rebounds per game. And also, let’s not forget, let’s NOT forget, Dude, that Lowry won his first gold medal this summer and received heaps of praise from the coaching staff. He may have looked out of his element in Game 1, but he and Coach Dwane Casey have both said he’s going to come out more aggressive in Game 2. I’m not sure who’s in charge of scheduling down at the league office, but the extra day of rest should only do good things for Lowry’s production. Over 12 games this season played after two days of rest, Lowry’s field goal percentage climbed to 53.8% and his three-point percentage was 51.1%, whereas, on one day of rest, those numbers were 43.8% and 37.9%, respectively. A final note on Lowry: assists account for 26.7% of his FD production, he assists on 29.9% of his team’s shots, and the Bucks gave up the fifth-most assists this season (24.1 apg). His price fell substantially after last game, which provides a great spot to buy low on Lowry.

Toronto’s co-leader, DeMar DeRozan, also suffered from the yips in the 2016 postseason. He shot 15.4% from three and 39.4% overall. His box score stats all declined except for total field goals made, but with fewer threes and free throws, his points decreased from 23.5 to 20.9 per game. He’s off to a rough start this time around, going for 0-2 from three and 7-for-21 overall. He’s been bad from beyond the arc all season, making 26.6% of his attempts and he’s a career 28.1% shooter from deep. He takes less than two per game, instead focusing his efforts from mid-range and attacking the basket. Milwaukee allowed the highest field goal percentage from mid-range after the break (44.7%) and they allowed opponents to get inside all season, permitting the fifth-most attempts from within five feet (31.3). Although they were 15th in field goal percentage from that close (59.4%), DeRozan is often successful when he gets to the basket, completing 62.3% of his attempts. The Bucks had a below average opponent free throw attempt rate of 27.9% this year (18th) while DeRozan’s style of play provided him the sixth-most free throws of any individual this season (8.7 per game). Free throws accounted for 27.1% of his points, and he should be successful getting to the line in this series. In Game 1 he got there 14 times and he ended up scoring 13 of his 27 points from the charity stripe. We have to love that he shot the ball 21 times on Saturday; we should expect him to maintain that rate, if not increase it in some games, and be more successful from the field moving forward. He’s not as cheap as Lowry, but his price is still appealing.

Serge Ibaka took advantage of Milwaukee’s lackluster rim protection, making six of his eight shots from within five feet. He also exploited their poor rebounding – they had the second-worst rate after the break (47.3%) – racking up a season-high 14 boards. It’s only the fifth time he’s had double-digit rebounds in 24 games with Toronto. While he has a good matchup with the Bucks, he’ll be competing with teammate Jonas Valanciunas on the glass, who boasts a 20.8% rebounding rate (sixth-best in NBA). Ibaka had a great performance, but maintaining that level of production doesn’t seem feasible considering the number of shots DeRozan and Lowry will take and the rebounds Valanciunas will pull down when he’s on the floor. The good news is he could push towards 36 minutes per night as Toronto likes using him as a small-ball center and his average per-36 pace results in 29.73 FD points. Plus, there aren’t many options at power forward tonight. His time at center will continue to limit JV’s workload. A reliable per-minute guy (1.0 FD ppm), Valanciunas received just 24 minutes on Saturday. He still managed to snag nine boards and contribute nine points, but that’s not a good return on his salary. Although this is a bit frustrating from a fantasy perspective, he’s demonstrated an ability to produce nice games with limited time. For example, he had ten double-doubles after March 1st, even though he exceeded 30 minutes just once. Since that date, he’s eclipsed 25 FD points 11 times, and topped 40 on three occasions. Hopefully, he’ll see his minutes get towards the upper-20s, but that may not happen, making him a risky guy in fantasy. On FanDuel he’s one of five of centers worth rostering, but on DraftKings he has much more competition.

The final guy to look at on this team is P.J. Tucker. He came off the bench and played 29 minutes, five more than starter DeMarre Carroll. He had some nice games while Lowry was out, but he averages 0.63 FD ppm overall and that number drops to 0.60 when Lowry is on the floor while his usage drops into the single digits (9.8%). There are a bunch of viable small forwards on this slate, so he isn’t a great play there. On DraftKings he has PF eligibility, which makes him slightly more interesting given the dearth of options at the position. Even so, he doesn’t look like a great choice. Since it looks like he’ll be getting close to 30 minutes a night, an argument could be made that he’s worth a look as a tournament flier on DK, but the risk may not be worth the reward.

Like the Bucks, Toronto has an implied team total pretty far below average (-6.7), but they’re still expected to score 100.3 points, which is third on the slate and only 6.0 points behind Boston at the top. The Vegas lines, while not great, aren’t as concerning as normal, since most teams and players are in similar situations.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas, P.J. Tucker

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Team Total		99.3					Team Total		106.3
			Pace +/-		0.6					Pace +/-		-1.0
Proj. Starter	Rajon Rondo	Dwyane Wade	Jimmy Butler	Nikola Mirotic	Robin Lopez		Proj. Starter	Isaiah Thomas	Avery Bradley	Jae Crowder	Amir Johnson	Al Horford
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	18	11	13	24	21		Adj. DvP	22	13	15	19	4
DRPM	-4.21	-1.13	1.37	3.79	1.59		DRPM	-0.67	-0.63	1.86	1.19	0.24

Chicago Bulls

• Notable Injuries: None

• Chicago Bulls Offense
  Points Per Game: 102.9 (23 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 99.3 (4 of 6)
  Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (2 of 6)
  Pace of Play: 97.7 (20 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (1 of 6)

• Boston Celtics Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (27 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.4 (15 of 30)

Chicago dominated the glass in Game 1, grabbing 59.6% of the available rebounds and posted a ridiculous 45.5% offensive rebounding rate. Robin Lopez had 11, Jimmy Butler and Bobby Portis had nine, Rajon Rondo had seven, and Dwyane Wade had five. Everyone got in on the action, but that’s an unsustainable rate, especially on the offensive glass, where Lopez nabbed eight of his boards. That said, Chicago has been a good rebounding team all season with a 51.7% rebounding rate, good for fourth in the league, while Boston has struggled to a 48.5% rate, which is the fourth-worst. While we can’t reasonably expect games like this each night, we can anticipate the Bulls winning the rebounding battle overall, which is good for the players mentioned above.

The other storyline of the night was Portis’ big outing off the bench. He received 29 minutes, ten more than Nikola Mirotic, and made the most of them. He made 3-of-4 three-pointers and 8-of-10 shots overall. It was the best game of his career, but it doesn’t mean he can’t produce a nice return again tonight on his $4.6k salary on DraftKings. He’s progressed quite a bit this year. On the season as a whole, he has a 20.6% usage rate and scored 0.92 DK ppm, which is already a solid number. Over the past three months, he turned it up a bit: 22.0% usage, 0.98 DK ppm. And in the last four weeks, he pushed above 1 DK ppm (1.01) while maintaining a 21.6% usage rate. He’s scored 34.5 or more DK points in three of his past seven games and at least 23 in five. Portis is a good rebounder, so Boston is one of the better matchups he could have in that respect. He also likes to shoot from mid-range (31.5% of his attempts) where he connects on 44.1% of his shots; Boston allowed the eighth-highest field goal percentage from mid-range this season (41.4%). While he’s expected to come off the bench again and his minutes aren’t secure, if his recent level of play doesn’t earn him more time on the court it would be surprising. Still, it could be a hot hand approach between him and Mirotic, so he can’t really be trusted in cash games.Part of the reason he earned so much time was due to Nikola Mirotic going 1-of-9 from the field and 0-for-5 from three in 19 minutes. His production is simply erratic, mainly because 60.1% of his shots are from three. Boston has been great defending three-pointers this season, allowing the second-lowest three-point percentage after the break (31.2%). Mirotic’s price dropped substantially, but he’s a risky tournament play at best, especially considering he may lose minutes to Portis.

Coach Fred Hoiberg gave the biggest allotment of minutes to Jimmy Butler, who pushed into the 40s, as expected. With Wade playing into the mid-30s, and Rondo starting (27 minutes), his ceiling and per-minute production will take big hits. Fortunately for Butler, Boston’s soft spot is mid-range, as mentioned, and that’s his favorite area to attack. They also gave up the fourth-most free throws per game this season (25.8) and Butler shot the third-most in the league – he had 12 attempts from the line in Game 1. Butler will have a high floor, but his $10k asking price may be too much given his limited ceiling. Rondo and Wade each scored over 30 FD points and as a result, their prices jumped. Rondo only played 27 minutes even though he was without a minutes restriction, which is a bit concerning. Chicago seems content to run Jerian Grant at point, he earned the other 21 minutes at the position. When Rondo is on the floor with Butler and Wade his usage drops 1.7% to 17.6% and his per-minute production falls 0.12 DK ppm to 0.88. He had some big games when Wade was sidelined, but it’ll be much hard for him to reach that type of ceiling with Wade back, especially if he’s going to be held under 30 minutes. He’s not a safe option tonight and may be a little too expensive. With these three on the floor, Wade takes a 4.4% usage hit and loses 0.15 DK ppm off his average, dropping it to 0.96. However, he still leads them in usage (27.5%) and he’s tied with Butler in per-minute production. He remains thousands less than Butler and he’s a few hundred less than Rondo on DK (same price on FanDuel). When Grant is on instead of Rondo, his per-minute production climbs to 1.08 DK ppm, 0.06 above Butler. He seems like the best target of the trio from a points-per-dollar perspective.

Robin Lopez is also worth consideration as he picks up an extra 0.07 DK ppm with Butler/Wade/Rondo (0.88 total) and another 0.03 DK ppm with Butler/Wade/Grant (0.84 total). Plus, he has a favorable matchup for rebounding – he had 11 in Game 1 – and he received 34 minutes, six more than average. While he doesn’t offer a huge ceiling, he’s a viable cash option at $5.1k.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Bobby Portis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Bobby Portis (cash), Robin Lopez (cash), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Boston Celtics

• Notable Injuries: None

• Boston Celtics Offense
  Points Per Game: 108.0 (7 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 106.3 (1 of 6)
  Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (1 of 6)
  Pace of Play: 99.3 (12 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -1.0 (3 of 6)

• Chicago Bulls Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (6 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (6 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (3 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.7 (12 of 30)

Boston’s strategy seems pretty clear, they’re going to run Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas for a ton of minutes – both will push 40 – while Avery Bradley will head towards 36 nightly, and Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart should see a little over 30 minutes each. On the season, Horford has produced 1.05 DK ppm, so his $6,400 salary on the site is too low for the minutes he’s getting. He has a nice floor due to solid peripheral stats; he averaged 6.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. He’s a balanced shooter, which is essential when facing a team like Chicago, who’s allowed a very low field goal percentage across nearly all areas of the floor this season – after all-star weekend they were fourth in overall opponent FG% (44.4%) and first in opponent 3P% (30.7%). However, they were 27th defending mid-range shots (42.3%); not only is that Horford’s most frequented zone, but he shoots 43.8% from there. In Game 1, he had success attacking the rim, going 5-for-6 from within five feet. Chicago allowed the fourth-most attempts in that part of the court in the second half of the year (31.1), so he will continue to look inside as well. Horford is a great bargain on FanDuel as well at $7.1k.

Boston’s top-scorer, Isaiah Thomas, dropped 33 on the Bulls. On the season, he has a per-36 pace of 46.39 DK points and he’s going to surpass the 36-minute mark each night. By way of his elite 35.7% usage rate, he assists on 32.5% of his team’s field goals and averaged 28.5 ppg in 33.8 mpg. Chicago has a solid defense, but Thomas’ can still beat his salary, he’s an elite option on this slate. Fellow guard Avery Bradley hasn’t broken out for a big game in a while. He looked sharp at the beginning of Game 1, but his shooting tapered off. He ended up 4-of-10 from three and 5-of-13 overall. He also struggled to rebound – he had three – which could continue in this series. However, despite Chicago’s elite rebounding rate, opponents grabbed the seventh-most total rebounds per game against them. That’s likely due to their poor shooting, which was in the bottom third of the league, leading to more available rebounds in each contest. Boston has held opponents to low FG%, so Bradley and others could still collect boards even if their team gets out-rebounded on the whole. Another positive takeaway is he should get around 36+ minutes nightly, which is a nice little boost above his 33.4-minute average this season. Although he hasn’t been his best lately, he should turn it around soon and he has a favorable price because of his recent performance. He’s $200 cheaper than Marcus Smart on FanDuel, which makes him a better play on the site. On DraftKings, Smart is $5k, $900 less than Bradley, which makes the decision a bit more challenging. Smart has been more consistent, delivering at least 25 DK points in eight of his last ten regular season games. He picked up 23 DK points in Game 1 of the postseason across 30 minutes. He shot 33.3% from the floor though, and he can certainly do better. He’s more of a cash game play tonight, given Chicago’s stingy defense and the number of minutes he’s expected to play. Jae Crowder has a lower usage rate than these two (18.2%) and he produces the same DK ppm as Smart (0.85). He’s $100 less than Smart on FD, but $100 more than Bradley, making Bradley the more appealing target there. On DK, he’s $700 more than Smart and $200 less than Bradley. It still seems like Bradley is the better option as he’ll play more minutes and has a better per-minute production rate. Plus, Bradley tends to be a more balance shooter, while Crowder likes to shoot a ton of threes. As mentioned, Chicago has been a really tough team to beat with the three-ball. Crowder finished the season strong with four consecutive performances with at least 30 DK points, but it seems like Bradley has the edge in this specific matchup.

There isn’t much left to look at on the Boston side, Kelly Olynyk is the only player besides Smart getting significant minutes off the bench. He had a nice performance against the Bulls, posting 27 DK points, but he was aided by three blocks and two steals, unsustainable numbers. He’s likely going to be held in the low-20s on a nightly basis, which means he isn’t a reliable fantasy target. Starter Amir Johnson may play less than him, removing him from consideration as well.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Los Angeles Clippers
			Vegas Total		195.5					Vegas Total		195.5
			Vegas Spread		9.0					Vegas Spread		-9.0
			Team Total		93.3					Team Total		102.3
			Pace +/-		-0.5					Pace +/-		-5.1
Proj. Starter	George Hill	Joe Ingles	Gordon Hayward	Boris Diaw	Derrick Favors		Proj. Starter	Chris Paul	J.J. Redick	Luc Richard Mbah a Moute	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	7	5	22	20	9		Adj. DvP	1	2	1	1	3
DRPM	2.71	-1.80	2.19	0.41	3.57		DRPM	0.60	0.04	0.13	-1.03	2.41

Utah Jazz

• Notable Injuries: Rudy Gobert (knee, out), Raul Neto (ankle, questionable)

• Utah Jazz Offense
  Points Per Game: 100.7 (28 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 93.3 (5 of 6)
  Projected Point Differential: -7.5 (5 of 6)
  Pace of Play: 93.6 (30 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -0.5 (2 of 6)

• Los Angeles Clippers Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (12 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (13 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.8 (9 of 30)

It was a bummer to see Rudy Gobert go down within 17 seconds of Game 1. He’s not going to be back for Game 2, which is a good thing for “(player-popup)Gordon Hayward”:/players/gordon-hayward-1239’s fantasy production. His usage increases 3.8% to 33.3% and he scores an extra 0.17 FD ppm, bringing his average pace to 1.16. Considering he played 40 minutes on Saturday and figures to do the same tonight, he’s a great deal at $7,300 on FanDuel and $7,800 on DraftKings. Of course, we need to be aware of Utah’s implied total of 93.3, which is 7.5 points below their average, and the 9.0-point spread, indicating a blowout is possible. As mentioned with Milwaukee and Toronto, four teams have implied totals of at least 6.5-points below their averages, and the highest total of the night is set at 205.5. While the Jazz aren’t necessarily going to make the best team to stack, they’re in similar situations as plenty of other players. Given the way Hayward has played with Gobert off the court this season, he’s a great deal relative to Jimmy Butler, who’s much more expensive and in an unfavorable situation with Wade and Rondo playing a bunch of minutes alongside him. Plus, the Clippers aren’t a terribly imposing defense. In the second half of the season, they were 17th in defensive rating (107.5), 19th in opponent field goal percentage (46.2%), and were 21st in assists allowed. They were 18th in rebounding percentage as well (49.5%), but had the best offensive shooting percentage, leading to fewer total rebounds available. All of this is good for Hayward, who double-doubled in the first game of the series (19 points and ten rebounds). He went 38.9% from the field, and we should see him do better than that going forward.

Rodney Hood experiences the second largest bump in usage without Gobert on the floor, but he is battling a knee injury and he isn’t getting the minutes needed to be useful. Hopefully, he can start getting more playing time, but it doesn’t look good at the moment; until we see his workload increase, he’s probably too risky to target. Derrick Favors had been in a similar situation, also due to a knee injury, but Gobert’s injury forced him into 32 minutes of action on Saturday. Although he’s fatigued as it’s the most he’s played in a long time, he’s expected to start and receive heavy minutes again tonight. Fortunately, they’re playing on two days rest, which definitely works to his advantage. He scored 15 points and added six rebounds after he was thrust into a big role in Game 1. On the season, he’s set a pace for 32.27 FD points per 36 minutes. That’s a great rate of return for a guy that’s $5,200 on the site. Although he’s hobbled up, we should keep in mind he averaged 16.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals in 32 minutes per game last season. The Clippers have a top-ten DvP ranking against centers, but he can still produce. LA has a negative rebounding rate and they allowed the sixth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket this season (62.5%), where 54.2% of Favors’ made buckets come from.

With Gobert out, Joe Johnson will play some stretch 4. He was straight up awesome in Game 1, scoring 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting over 31 minutes of action. While we can’t expect him to score 36.1 FD points every night, he should get plenty of playing time and his usage rate ticks up 1.0% with Gobert off the floor. On the season, he returns 0.68 FD ppm without Rudy, but over the past four weeks, that number has shot up to 0.94 with a usage rate of 26.4%, 5.9% above his average. This is playoff mode Joe Johnson. His price may have crept up a little too high on DraftKings, but he’s still worth considering as a value play. He costs $500 less on FanDuel, so it might be better to get exposure there. There aren’t a ton of small forward options today, so Johnson is firmly in play, especially considering the talent available at guard for a premium. Joel Ingles is a potential value option as well, but he’s not nearly as enticing. His numbers have gone down the past four weeks with Gobert out; his usage is down 1.0% to 13.7% and his FD ppm dropped 0.04 to 0.60. Ingles has topped 20 FD points twice in the past seven games. With the way Johnson is playing lately, Joe Cool aka Joe Johnson seems like the better option of the two.

George Hill played more minutes than both of those guys (37), but he only returned 23.8 FD points. He’s played worse without Gobert this year; his usage drops 2.2% to 22.7% and his per-36 fantasy production drops 3.21 FD points to 28.75. Still, it was good to see him get such a big workload after being limited by injury towards the end of the season. He can definitely contribute peripherals and he has upside, more so than Malcolm Brogdon, who only provides a savings of $100 on FanDuel (he’s $1,100 cheaper on DK). He has to worry about “(player-popup)Chris Paul”:/players/chris-paul-1087’s defense though, while Brogdon may end up matched with DeRozan. Either way, Hill is a better tournament option than the rookie, but he might be too risky for cash.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors (cash), George Hill, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers

• Notable Injuries: None

• Los Angeles Clippers Offense
  Points Per Game: 108.7 (6 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 102.3 (2 of 6)
  Projected Point Differential: -6.5 (3 of 6)
  Pace of Play: 98.2 (17 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -5.1 (6 of 6)

• Utah Jazz Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (1 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (3 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 182.2 (1 of 30)

The Clippers suffered a tough defeat on Saturday, losing to the Jazz at the buzzer. They’re 9.0-point favorites tonight though as Utah will be without Gobert. While Favors is a good defender, he isn’t on the level of Gobert. DeAndre Jordan took advantage of his absence by racking up 15 rebounds and making it a double-double with ten points. Griffin worked his way inside on the offensive side, taking ten shots within five feet of the hoop, scoring on five of them. He should continue to be aggressive tonight. He was able to add seven rebounds as well – as a team Los Angeles hauled in 54.1% of all available rebounds. Gobert’s absence is huge. Both players received over 36 minutes of action and Griffin was on the court for 43 minutes. They should both be in store for another heavy workload and they should be successful. The pace of the game is a concern, but all three games are going to be relatively slow tonight. In terms of raw points, both Griffin and Jordan are at the top of their positions on tonight’s slate.

Similarly, Chris Paul is the top point guard in terms of raw projected points, although fellow elites, Isaiah Thomas and Kyle Lowry offer better points-per-dollar projections. Paul also has the highest ceiling of the group and he has a beatable salary of $9.2k on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In Game 1, Paul scored 25 points while contributing 11 assists and seven rebounds for a total of 54.9 FD points. He’s assisted on a ridiculous 46.8% of his team’s field goals this season and he assisted on 62.0% of them in Game 1. He assisted on seven of Griffin’s nine field goals on Saturday, a pattern that could continue. He’s going to put the team on his back as he has for the past few weeks. Over the last two, his per-36 pace has increased by 4.45 FD points, bringing it to 50.03. Not bad for a guy just over $9k.

Los Angeles offers a few value tournament options in J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, and Marreese Speights. Redick was smothered by Ingles’ defense all night, only getting off six shots and going 1-for-3 from beyond the arc. He’s been pretty horrid against the Jazz all season. Across 135.7 against them, his usage dropped 2.1% and his per-minute production fell 28.2% to 0.51 FD ppm. This doesn’t seem like the right matchup to target him. Jamal Crawford has the worst field goal percentage in the playoffs of any active player with more than 500 attempts. That said, he actually improved his fantasy production in the 113.2 minutes he faced Utah this season; his usage went up 4.6% while his per-minute production rose 0.13 FD ppm to 0.82. He managed to get off 12 shots against the Jazz last game, although he was 4-of-12 overall and 0-for-4 from three. He also played 29 minutes to Redick’s 27. Between the two, he’s the better option in this series, but he’s not particularly exciting. Mo Buckets aka Marreese Speights, can pop off at any time even in limited minutes. He’s a total wild card, but he brings a ton of energy to the court. It’s definitely helpful that he won’t be going against Gobert down low, but in the end, he’s probably going to get fewer than 20 minutes. On the positive side, he commands a 24.7% usage rate when he gets on the floor, and he can do a lot of work in a hurry. If interested in the gamble, he’s only $2,600 on DraftKings, which makes him a viable tournament option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – Jamal Crawford, Marreese Speights