NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 19th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 7:00 PM

Boston Celtics Atlanta Hawks
bostonnba Vegas Total 206.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 8 19 14 12 22 Opp. Season 3 10 23 27 24
Last 3 Weeks 24 13 13 12 23 Last 3 Weeks 17 17 23 27 12


Boston Celtics

Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics just missed out on stealing homecourt advantage in Game 1. We haven’t had a lot of great games thus far, but this series should be close throughout. Boston is listed as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 2 with their team total set at 99.8 points. Given the fact that the Spurs game will likely be a blowout, this is the better game to target of the two. Avery Bradley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and it sounds like he may not be back again this season. Marcus Smart and Evan Turner will both see a boost in his absence, with the starter seeing the biggest boost.

Player Minutes Points Rebounds Assists Blks/Stls FP FP/Min
A. JohnsonPF 22.0 4.0 8.0 1.0 2.0 18.1 0.82
J. CrowderSF 33.0 14.0 10.0 4.0 0.0 30.0 0.91
J. SullingerC 19.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 22.7 1.19
A. BradleyPG 33.0 18.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 26.1 0.79
I. ThomasPG 37.0 27.0 3.0 8.0 2.0 43.6 1.18
J. JerebkoPF 17.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 11.0 0.65
K. OlynykC 12.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.7 0.31
M. SmartPG 29.0 15.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 29.0 1.00
E. TurnerSG 34.0 10.0 8.0 5.0 2.0 30.1 0.89
R.J. HunterSG 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.40

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$7,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 30.3 -1.9 29.1 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 34.8 31.8 -3.0 32.5 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 28.2 1.9 27.1 0.7

Thomas played 37 minutes in Game 1 of this series and now that Avery Bradley is out, he could see even more playing time. The matchup against Jeff Teague isn’t all that appealing, but the increased playing time more than makes up for it. He is the top point guard in this small two-game slate.

Jae Crowder
jae-crowder-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.6 29.3 -2.3 28.0 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 26.3 23.7 -2.6 18.7 -7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 17.6 1.5 15.7 -0.4

Crowder would have been an elite play even if Avery Bradley was active. With Bradley out, that only solidifies his minutes and could potentially give him a small usage boost as well. Look for the Celtics to employ a lot of small ball lineups tonight like they did in Game 1.

Evan Turner
evan-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 31.9 3.9 29.1 1.1
FPPG (FD) 23.4 25.6 2.2 23.9 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 16.6 0.4 17.9 1.7

I’m secretly hoping that Evan Turner comes off the bench. While he will be highly owned regardless, his ownership will be lower if he doesn’t start. Turner played 34 minutes in Game 1 and that was with Avery Bradley playing.

Secondary Plays

Amir Johnson
amir-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$4,600
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 23.4 0.6 22.0 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 20.0 20.7 0.6 20.8 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 11.3 10.1 -1.1 10.8 -0.5

With the Celtics employing the small ball approach in Game 1, there weren’t very minutes to go around in the frontcourt. Johnson saw more than any other big at 22 minutes, finishing with 18 fantasy points. The upside is there in this matchup, but I’m concerned about his playing time.

Marcus Smart
marcus-smart-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$4,500
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.3 28.8 1.5 29.6 2.3
FPPG (FD) 20.9 21.4 0.4 20.1 -0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 13.4 -2.0 12.8 -2.6

Smart is a viable punt play tonight at PG/SG. He should see north of 30 minutes tonight and even though the matchup isn’t great, it’s not like we have a bunch of value plays to pivot to. I slightly prefer him on DraftKings, as he is considerably cheaper than he is on FanDuel.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 48-34 — Home: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks almost blew a 19-point lead in Game 1, but managed to escape with a victory. They are looking to increase their lead tonight, as they are listed as 6.5-point favorites at home. The Hawks are projected to score 106.3 points, which gives them the highest team total of the four teams in action. Once again, with the Spurs game likely being a blowout, we should load up on the players in this game. Kent Bazemore is listed on the injury report, but is fully expected to play tonight.

Player Minutes Points Rebounds Assists Blks/Stls FP FP/Min
P. MillsapPF 37.0 14.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 34.9 0.94
K. BazemoreSF 34.0 23.0 8.0 0.0 3.0 38.6 1.14
A. HorfordC 37.0 24.0 12.0 2.0 2.0 43.4 1.17
J. TeaguePG 36.0 23.0 4.0 12.0 1.0 45.8 1.27
K. KorverSG 32.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 0.0 12.3 0.38
M. ScottPF 18.0 14.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 1.06
M. MuscalaPF 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.68
T. SefoloshaSF 22.0 2.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 14.4 0.65
D. SchroderPG 11.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.18
T. Hardaway Jr.SG 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.25

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$8,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.15 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.7 1.0 34.7 2.0
FPPG (FD) 37.5 44.0 6.6 44.7 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 19.4 -0.5 19.5 -0.4

Millsap didn’t have the best game in their first meeting, but he still finished with 35 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. We can expect a similar minute allotment for him tonight against a very beatable Celtics’ frontcourt. Look for Millsap to get back on track offensively.

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$6,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 30.4 1.9 29.4 0.9
FPPG (FD) 28.0 33.3 5.3 30.2 2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 25.3 2.9 23.5 1.1

Teague had a solid first game in this series, finishing with 46 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. While his matchup against the Celtics doesn’t look great on paper, the increase in playing time more than makes up for it.

Kent Bazemore
kent-bazemore-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.8 28.3 0.5 27.6 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 23.1 28.3 5.3 34.6 11.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 16.9 0.8 20.5 4.4

In Saturday’s Grind Down, I mentioned that Bazemore was arguably my favorite tournament play on the board. He came through with a big outing in Game 1, finishing with 39 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action. I’m not sure we can expect a repeat production wise, but the minutes will be there.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.3 0.2 32.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 32.3 32.3 0.0 34.1 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 18.4 0.5 18.7 0.7

Horford would be an elite play tonight if it weren’t for his expensive price tag. I have a hard time paying up for him, when we can take a huge discount and use Tim Duncan against the Grizzlies. However, if you want to play him, taking bigs against the Celtics is never a bad strategy.


Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs – 9:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs
memphisnba Vegas Total 187.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 187.5
Vegas Sprd 18.0 Vegas Sprd -18.0
Team Proj. 84.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Tony Allen Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Chris Andersen Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 4 3 Opp. Season 12 5 11 18 5
Last 3 Weeks 19 2 9 4 3 Last 3 Weeks 22 11 5 30 21


Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 42-40 — Road: 16-25 — Last 10: 1-9

The Grizzlies are simply outmatched in this series. The Spurs are clearly the better team and Memphis is playing without their two best players. They are listed as 18-point underdogs tonight in a game that would shock me if it stayed competitive. Not only do we have to worry about a blowout, but the Spurs have the best defense in the entire NBA. Even in a two-game slate, I have a hard time targeting any Grizzlies’ players against the Spurs.

Player Minutes Points Rebounds Assists Blks/Stls FP FP/Min
Z. RandolphPF 28.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 13.5 0.48
C. AndersenPF 17.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 2.0 17.3 1.02
M. BarnesSF 23.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 5.3 0.23
J. FarmarPG 22.0 6.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 13.9 0.63
V. CarterSG 19.0 16.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 23.6 1.24
J. GreenPF 19.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.49
J. MartinPF 23.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 10.8 0.47
L. StephensonSF 29.0 14.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 20.4 0.70
P.J. HairstonSF 12.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 0.50
X. MunfordPG 28.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 17.2 0.61
T. AllenSG 21.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 12.1 0.58

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jordan Farmar
jordan-farmar-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.3 23.8 -0.5 24.7 0.4
FPPG (FD) 17.8 17.5 -0.3 16.6 -1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.3 16.5 0.2 15.4 -0.9

The Grizzlies are going to need to get production from somewhere and even though the Spurs’ defense is stout all around, Tony Parker is the worst defender of the bunch. If you need to punt point guard, Farmar should play around 25 minutes tonight.

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 67-15 — Home: 40-1 — Last 10: 6-4

The Spurs are going to be one of my favorite teams to target once they face a better team in the postseason. We can finally count on their starters and veterans to see a full complement of minutes. That may not happen tonight though, as they are 18-point favorites at home against a banged-up Grizzlies squad. If you look at the box score from Game 1, not a single Spurs’ player saw more than 29 minutes of action.

Player Minutes Points Rebounds Assists Blks/Stls FP FP/Min
L. AldridgePF 27.0 17.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 24.8 0.92
K. LeonardSF 29.0 20.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 35.4 1.22
T. DuncanC 22.0 7.0 11.0 0.0 3.0 24.2 1.10
T. ParkerPG 21.0 15.0 1.0 6.0 0.0 22.2 1.06
D. GreenSG 20.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 12.6 0.63
D. WestPF 17.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 11.0 0.65
K. AndersonSF 15.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 7.9 0.53
B. MarjanovicC 10.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 0.77
B. DiawC 21.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 13.9 0.66
P. MillsPG 19.0 15.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 26.8 1.41
J. SimmonsSG 8.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.7 0.84
M. GinobiliSG 21.0 2.0 7.0 3.0 2.0 18.9 0.90
K. MartinSG 12.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 11.7 0.98

Elite Plays

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$4,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.2 27.8 2.6 29.2 4.0
FPPG (FD) 24.0 21.8 -2.2 22.6 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 16.1 1.4 19.4 4.7

Duncan is my top center play tonight, as he should see 22-25 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Grizzlies. He played well in the first game of the series, scoring 24 fantasy points in 22 minutes of action. I’m expecting a similar outing tonight.

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,600 Salary:$8,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 35.5 2.4 37.5 4.4
FPPG (FD) 37.5 42.4 4.9 42.4 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 23.8 1.5 24.8 2.6

If we knew that Leonard would play 32 minutes, I would label him as an elite play. However, the blowout potential in this game is high and small forward is actually a pretty deep position tonight. For that reason, I would only use Leonard in GPPs.

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$7,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 31.4 0.8 27.3 -3.3
FPPG (FD) 32.3 32.5 0.3 24.5 -7.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 21.1 -0.9 22.0 0.0

Dollar for dollar, I would much rather take Paul Millsap over Aldridge. However, if you have to take two power forwards on a site like FanDuel, you can certainly give Aldridge a look tonight. The production should be there, I’m just not sure we can count on more than 28-30 minutes.

Tony Parker
tony-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$4,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 29.3 1.8 31.3 3.8
FPPG (FD) 23.0 17.2 -5.8 19.7 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 16.8 -2.1 16.6 -2.3

If you are looking to fade either Isaiah Thomas or Jeff Teague, Parker is your next best option at point guard. He played very well in the first game of the series and his price is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious