NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-18 22:30:49

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Atlanta at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -10, 192 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Atlanta

After a 5-day All-Star break, I am ready to get back at it and I’m sure that most of you Grinders feel the same way! The first game of the night is a tough one. The Hawks travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers in a matchup that does not bode well for the Hawks. In case you forgot, the Pacers have the league’s best defense and are one of the best teams in the league at home.

The Pacers are only giving up 90.3 points per game to their opponents which is a full 2 points lower than the next best team. The Pacers are also ranked 7th or better in terms of fantasy points given up to all five positions on the floor. This is a situation that is easy to avoid. We have 8 other games on the schedule and I’m just not seeing any great fantasy options on the Hawks tonight.

Indiana

The Pacers come into this game after losing two of their last three before the All-Star break. They should be well rested and ready to get back at it tonight against the Hawks. This game does have some blowout potential as the Pacers are double-digit favorites and playing at home where they have been tough to beat all season long.

The Hawks are giving up 101 points per game this season and have not been great in terms of Defense vs. Position rankings. If you are going to target this game at all, the Pacers are in a much better position than the Hawks. Lance Stephenson and Paul George both have depressed prices across the industry. This could be a great time to buy low on either one or both of them. However, neither player has played great over the last couple of weeks. With some of the other favorable matchups on the board tonight, I’m likely going to be avoiding this one altogether for my cash games.

Cleveland at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Cleveland -3.5, 209.5 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Zeller
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes

Cleveland

The Cavaliers will be without Anderson Varejao again tonight as he did not travel with the team to Philadelphia. That opens up big minutes for Tristan Thompson, Tyler Zeller, and Anthony Bennett. The Cavs have a terrific matchup against the Sixers who not only play at the league’s fastest pace (102), but also give up the most points per game to their opponents (110). In terms of fantasy points allowed, this equates to the Sixers being ranked dead last or second to last against all five positions on the floor.

There are plenty of viable fantasy plays from the Cavs tonight. Dion Waiters has been playing great off the bench, he has topped 22 FP’s in 6 of his last 9 games. Tyler Zeller should get some decent run and is close to minimum salary on most sites. Jarrett Jack isn’t playing huge minutes, but is extremely cheap and makes a nice punt option.

Kyrie Irving – Irving will likely be one of the most popular plays tonight. Not only does he have the most favorable matchup of all PG’s, but he is coming off of an All-Star MVP performance. The Sixers have been historically bad defensively this season. Even though Kyrie has had his struggles on the road this season, he should be in for a monster fantasy performance tonight. Irving has a 22.8% usage rate which should really translate to fantasy success considering the matchup.

Tristan Thompson – In Thompson’s last two games with Varejao out, he has posted 36 and 45 FP’s. His price has come up on most fantasy sites, but I think he is still very much in play against the Sixers. The Sixers do not rebound or defend well and Thompson could be on the receiving end of quite a few Irving assists tonight.

Luol Deng – Deng hasn’t looked very engaged since coming over from Chicago. He’s not happy with the situation in Cleveland and I can’t really blame him. His offensive game has still been there, but he has not been the great defender that he has been in the past. Luckily for us, we only need him to be good on the offensive end of the floor. He makes a solid option at SF tonight.

Philadelphia

The Sixers will look to get back on track after the All-Star break. They are only 3.5 point underdogs and have a good chance of picking up their first win in 8 games. This is expected to be one of the fastest-paced games tonight and the matchup bodes well for the Sixers. The Cavaliers play at an average pace (95) and are in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of points allowed per game (102).

Looking at the DvP rankings for the Cavs, there aren’t any positions that we need to avoid on the Sixers tonight, however there are a few that we should be targeting. The Cavs have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season and it may be a nice time to take Michael Carter-Williams and his very cheap price tag. Evan Turner is another Sixer that you can take that has a depressed salary, the Cavs have not defended SF’s well and Turner may get it going again after a nice break.

Spencer Hawes – Hawes is one of my favorite plays at the Center position tonight and I may be in the minority here. He has been very inconsistent lately, but his minutes have been up and down because the Sixers continue to get blown out. That shouldn’t be a problem tonight against the Cavs. With Varejao out of the lineup, opposing Centers have had huge games against the Cavs and I’m expecting that to be the case again tonight.

Toronto at Washington

Vegas Line – Washington -3, 195.5 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat

Toronto

The Raptors will look to continue their playoff push tonight against the Wizards. The total for this game is set at 195 points which isn’t very high and isn’t very low. Both of these teams play at a fairly average pace and both have been fairly average defensively this season (Toronto giving up 97 points per game, Washington giving up 99 points per game).

As far as individual matchups, the Wizards have been very stingy down low this season. Their big front-court of Gortat and Nene have managed to give the Wizards top 10 rankings against both PF’s and Centers. With a tough matchup and a rotation of 4 players, I will be avoiding all Raptors’ big men tonight. DeMar DeRozan has a decent matchup against Beal, but you are going to have to pay up for DeRozan tonight and I like other options at his price point.

Kyle Lowry – Lowry has faced the Wizards twice this season and has posted very Lowry-esque type of numbers. In those meetings he has averaged 15 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds. I think we can expect a similar performance out of him tonight. Lowry’s usage rate has really gone up over the last month and he should be able to fill the stat sheet once again tonight.

Washington

The Wizards face a Raptors team that has made an effort to push the tempo recently. The Raptors have scored at least 100 points in 6 of their last 7 games. This does give a small fantasy boost to the Wizards, but the game should still be played at a fairly average pace. Looking at the DvP rankings for the Raptors, the SG position is really the only one to target. Trevor Ariza, Nene Hilario, and Marcin Gortat all have less than favorable matchups.

I am a bit mixed on John Wall tonight. He is averaging 24, 4, and 4 against the Raptors this season which isn’t great However, he does have great home splits as he is averaging over 40 FP’s per game at home this season. At the end of the day, it comes down to his matchup and with Lowry being one of the best on ball defenders this season, I think it’s safe to fade John Wall tonight.

Bradley Beal – Beal really turned it on before the All-Star break. He has topped 28 FP’s in 8 of his last 11 games and his price still has yet to match that recent level of production. The Raptors have not defended SG’s well and I think Beal could be in for another big game tonight. Now that his minutes cap has been lifted, he has really started to come into his own.

Charlotte at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -4.5, 204 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Charlotte

The Bobcats could be a very sneaky team to target tonight. This game features a high total (204.5) and the Pistons have really struggled defensively this season. They are giving up an average of 102.6 points per game which is the 6th most in the NBA. With the Pistons coaching situation still not resolved, they should continue to struggle on both ends of the floor.

If you look at the DvP rankings of the Pistons, you will see that they are ranked 14th or worse in terms of fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. With Singler starting at SG, the Pistons have really dropped in the rankings against SG’s (28th over the last 15 days). Gerald Henderson makes a terrific play tonight. His price is very cheap on a few sites.

Al Jefferson – Jefferson has been on fire over the last month or so and has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA. Jefferson has a usage rate of 29% which is 2nd only to DeMarcus Cousins as far as Centers go. Jefferson has a favorable matchup against Drummond and the Pistons and should be able to top 40 FP’s once again.

Kemba Walker – Walker is one of my sneaky picks tonight. Most experts like to avoid Walker when he is on the road because of his glaring home/road splits. However, he has recently closed the gap between his numbers on the road vs. those at home and I love Walker’s matchup tonight against Jennings.

Detroit

The Pistons probably have the weaker matchup of the two teams in this game. The Bobcats play at a slower pace than the Pistons and have had better success defensively. The Bobcats are only giving up 97 points per game which is actually the 5th fewest in the NBA. While the Vegas line may suggest that the Pistons are a great team to target, I am a bit more skeptical.

That said, I still think there are a couple of decent fantasy plays here. While the Bobcats have been stingy to opposing SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s, they have not been great against opposing PG’s and Centers. The Bobcats are ranked 18th and 26th in terms of fantasy points given up to those two positions.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings can be a very frustrating fantasy player to take because he can have those dud performances that kill your entire lineup. However, he can also have those spectacular fantasy performances that make the difference in your leagues. While I typically like to use him more as a GPP play, he has a favorable matchup against Walker and posted 26 points and 5 assists in their first matchup this season.

Andre Drummond – Drummond may be a bit overpriced on a couple of sites tonight (DS especially), but is in play on both FD and DK. Drummond is coming off of his best month of his career and has a great matchup against Jefferson who only cares about his offensive game. Drummond should be a beast on the glass and post another monster double-double.

New York at Memphis

Vegas Line – Memphis -6, 182 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Shumpert-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

New York

Two of the slower paced teams in the league face off tonight in Memphis. The Knicks are only averaging 92 possessions per game while only giving up 99 points per game. If that weren’t bad enough, the Grizzlies play at an even slower pace, averaging only 91 possessions per game and give up an even lower amount of points per game: 94.

A slow paced game between two solid defenses usually doesn’t bode well for high fantasy output and there isn’t anything in my analysis that makes me think otherwise about this game. There are not going to be enough possessions or points to go around to make the Knicks viable fantasy options tonight.

Memphis

The Grizzlies are in a similar position as the Knicks, but this slow pace of play is what they are used to. Grizzlies games typically have a total that is close to the 182 that is set for this game so I don’t think we necessarily need to downgrade their fantasy value tonight. That said, I’m not sure that any of the matchups are good enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

Mike Conley is expected to be back for tonight’s game. This essentially ends the run for Nick Calathes as a value play. It also may hurt the value of Courtney Lee as I expect Calathes to take away some of his minutes. There are better options at better price points tonight.