NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 18th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-18 22:30:07

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Orlando at Milwaukee

• Vegas Line – Orlando -2.5, 194 Over/Under
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harris-Davis-Vucevic
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

Orlando

The Magic and Bucks game may have a fairly low total (194), but considering the two teams involved, it actually is a lot higher than I expected it to be. This game could be fantasy gold or fantasy bust. I’m slightly leaning toward the fantasy gold route though. Both of these team are giving up at least 101 points per game to their opponents and neither have been great defensively this season.

The Bucks are ranked 14th or worse against every position on the floor over the last 15 days. While I love the matchup for the Magic, it’s tough to find reliable fantasy options here. Jameer Nelson and Victor Oladipo both hurt each other’s fantasy value, especially with Oladipo coming off the bench. Glen Davis has not been in the fantasy picture for quite a while now. There aren’t enough shots for Tobias Harris for him to be the solid fantasy option that he was a few weeks ago. However, the two players that I will be targeting are Arron Afflalo and Nikola Vucevic.

• Arron Afflalo – Afflalo makes a nice play tonight at SG which can often be a very tough position to fill, especially on FD. The Bucks are expected to have Mayo and Butler back tonight, but I think Afflalo should play well regardless of who ends up defending him.

• Nikola Vucevic – I like Vucevic for a few reasons tonight. First, he is back to playing a full compliment of minutes. He has played 37 minutes in each of the last 2 games and has topped 30 FP’s in each of those outings. Second, he has a terrific matchup against the Bucks who have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing Centers this season. Finally, I like Vucey because he is cheap, his price is depressed across the industry.

Milwaukee

The Bucks will be without Larry Sanders tonight, but they are expected to have both O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler back. Having Mayo and Butler back really doesn’t help clear anything up in terms of playing time for guys like Nate Wolters, Khris Middleton, and the Alphabet. I will likely be staying away from all of the wing players on the Bucks. Inconsistent play and Larry Drew’s spur of the moment rotations are more than enough for me to avoid them.

The bigs of the Bucks are a different story though. With Larry Sanders out, guys like John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, and Zaza Pachulia should all see big minutes going forward. Henson was dealing with an injury, but he managed to practice yesterday and should be able to suit up tonight. I think Ilysaova makes a nice GPP play and I like whoever starts at the Center position for cash games, whether it be Henson or Pachulia.

• Brandon Knight – Knight is basically the only consistent Bucks player on their roster and to say that he has been consistent is a stretch. That said, his price is very affordable and Knight has topped 28 FP’s in each of his last 6 games. He should be able to crack the 30 FP mark tonight against Jameer and the Magic.

Miami at Dallas

• Vegas Line – Miami -2.5, 207.5 Over/Under
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
• Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Miami

This game has one of the higher totals of the night at 207.5 points. This is a rematch of the finals a few years ago and if things go as expected, it should be a highly contested game tonight. The Heat are expected to be at full-strength tonight after the All-Star break, but you can never be truly sure about Dwyane Wade status. Assume that he will play, but keep your eye out for any news suggesting otherwise. As far as the matchup goes, Mario Chalmers, Chris Bosh, and Wade all have decent matchups, but LeBron James is the player to target tonight.

• LeBron James – We all know that LeBron is LeBron. He has the 4th highest usage rate (30.2%) of any player and the 2nd highest PIE (19.7%). These are stats that basically tell us how involved a player is on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. LeBron had a great performance in the All-Star game and should put on an encore performance tonight against the Mavericks who stole a title out from under-neath him. He will have a little added motivation for this one.

Dallas

The Mavericks host the two-time defending champs tonight in what is expected to be a high scoring game. While the Heat have been known for their great defense, they have dropped in the DvP rankings lately. Over the last 15 days, the Heat are ranked 15th or worse against SG’s SF’s, and PF’s. I think there are a few Mavericks in play tonight, but they are all site specific plays. Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis, and Shawn Marion all have vastly different prices across the industry. They all have good matchups though so if you can find any of them at a discount, don’t hesitate to take them tonight against the Heat.

Phoenix at Denver

• Vegas Line – Phoenix -2.5, 209 Over/Under
• Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
• Denver Proj. Starters – Foye-Miller-Chandler-Faried-Hickson

Phoenix

This game features the highest total of the night. While the total opened at 209 points, it has gone all the way up to 213 points. Both of these teams average at least 98 possessions per game and both of these teams give up an average of at least 102 points per game. This one should be all about offense. The Nuggets have not defended any position well this season and will be without Ty Lawson who was seemingly their best defender. I don’t mind using the bigs of the Suns tonight (Plumlee, Morris, Frye), but they aren’t my favorite plays here.

• Goran Dragic – Dragic could be in for a monster fantasy outing tonight. He is priced in the same range as Chris Paul and Kyrie Irving and my best guess is that he will likely be under-owned because of it. I think Dragic has an extremely high floor in this game. I have a hard time seeing him score under 35 FP’s as Randy Foye will be much to slow to stay in front of him. Not only that, but Foye has been turnover prone when he plays the PG position and Dragic should be able to get a few steals that will lead to some easy bucks.

• Gerald Green – Green has that boom or bust nature to him. He can explode for 40 FP’s or disappear offensively and end up putting up 10 FP’s. I’m hoping that tonight is the former. He has a great matchup against the combination of Quincy Miller, Evan Fournier, and Jordan Hamilton, all of which appear to be excellent matchups.

Denver

The Nuggets will be without Ty Lawson tonight which means Randy Foye will likely get another start at PG. That’s not confirmed yet though, the Nuggets could opt to start Evan Fournier at the point and leave Foye at his more natural SG position. Either way, I think Foye gets the biggest fantasy boost with Lawson out. Fournier, Miller, and Hamilton should all see a small boost as well.

The Suns have actually been pretty decent defensively this season. They are ranked 17th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried are both in play because the game is at home, but it’s hard to rely on them in cash games.

• Randy Foye – With Lawson out, Foye will likely get the start at PG. If he does, his value goes up tremendously. He has really played well over the last couple of weeks and even has a couple of games where he has cracked double-digit assists.

San Antonio at L.A.Clippers

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -4.5, 211 Over/Under
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

San Antonio

The Spurs will be without Tony Parker tonight. While they are expected to have Manu Ginobili back, it is going to be tough to knock off the Clippers in LA without their PG. The line for this game has moved up to 6.5 after the Tony Parker news. With Parker and possibly Kawhi Leonard out, we can expect big minutes from the usual cast of characters: Cory Joseph, Patty Mills, Danny Green, and Marco Belinelli. I suggest waiting a game or two on Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard if they play, the Spurs are all about the long-term and I doubt they push their limits tonight.

• Tim Duncan – Duncan has faced the Clippers twice this season and has played well in both of those games. He’s averaged 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists in those meetings and I expect him to play well here tonight. With Parker out, he may have to pick up some of the slack offensively. The only concern with Duncan is that he probably won’t see a ton of minutes, especially considering the fact that they play again tomorrow.

L.A.Clippers

Last but not least we have the Clippers. The Clippers are expected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the schedule tonight. J.J. Redick is not expected to be back for tonight’s game which means Jamal Crawford will get another start at SG. His price has really gone up though which makes him a tough player to target tonight. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are both in play down low. The Spurs are ranked 16th and 22nd against opposing PF’s and Centers over the last 15 days.

• Chris Paul – The Clippers wasted no time giving Paul starter’s minutes. After only playing 23 in his first game back, the Clippers gave him 39 minutes in his last game. Paul also played big minutes in the All-Star game so we can assume that he is full over his injury. Paul’s price is very cheap tonight for what he brings to the table. He’s in the $8-9k range on FD and DK and in the $18k range on DS. All of which are too cheap in my eyes. He will be a popular play tonight and for good reason.