NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 1st - Page Two
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -2, 210.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Nets Proj. Starters – Sloan-Brown-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
- Los Angeles Lakers Proj. Starters – Russell-Clarkson-Brown-Randle-Hibbert
| Brooklyn Nets | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.90 | Team Pace | 98.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Donald Sloan | Markel Brown | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj. Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Jordan Clarkson | Anthony Brown | Julius Randle | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 28 | 29 | 23 | 28 | Opp. Season | 25 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 21 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 29 | 17 | 30 | 28 | 16 | Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 23 | 16 | 12 | 7 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 17-43 — Road: 6-21 — Last 10: 5-5
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.0 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 7.3 (4 of 12)
The Nets have been in pretty good form recently, winning five of their last ten games. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they won’t have to travel, as they took on the Clippers last night. The Nets are listed as 2-point underdogs in a game that should be filled with fantasy goodness. I always love targeting players in games that feature two terrible teams. The nets are projected to score 104.3 points, which is 7.3 points above their scoring average.
- Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 214.6 (30 of 30)
The Lakers are in the running with the Kings for the honors as worst defensive team in the NBA this season. They are ranked 28th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. The Nets are already playing short-handed and it sounds like they could be without Wayne Ellington tonight. He left last night’s game with a possible concussion. If he is unable to suit up, Markel Brown would likely draw a start at shooting guard. I don’t mind employing a mini-Nets stack in this one.
- Injury Watch:
Wayne Ellington (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Brook Lopez | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,400 | Salary:$7,500 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.07 | FP/Min:1.13 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.7 | 34.3 | 0.6 | 34.1 | 0.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 36.1 | 36.9 | 0.8 | 39.8 | 3.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 22.5 | -0.3 | 22.5 | -0.3 |
Are the Nets playing in the tail end of a back-to-back? Yes. Should we be concerned? No. Lopez has played in the second half of a back-to-back ten times this season, averaging 18.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 3.5 blocks/steals per game. He also draws the top matchup of any center, as the Lakers have allowed the third most fantasy points to the position.
| Thaddeus Young | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,000 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.93 | FP/Min:0.99 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.0 | 36.1 | 3.1 | 36.6 | 3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.6 | 34.3 | 3.6 | 33.4 | 2.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.0 | 16.3 | -1.7 | 15.0 | -3.1 |
Young’s usage rate is down over his last five games, but his minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the right direction. He is my favorite target at power forward tonight and he should be the chalk play at the position. On the season, the Lakers are ranked 23rd against power forwards.
| Bojan Bogdanovic | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,500 | Salary:$4,200 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.57 | FP/Min:0.61 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 26.3 | 25.2 | -1.1 | 27.8 | 1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.0 | 16.5 | 1.5 | 16.1 | 1.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.6 | 17.4 | 2.9 | 18.7 | 4.1 |
Bogdanovic and consistency don’t exactly go hand in hand, but he could see 30+ minutes tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. This is the perfect matchup for Bogdanovic, as he should get plenty of open looks from deep. Even though he is inconsistent, he is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Secondary Plays
| Donald Sloan | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,800 | Salary:$5,100 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.80 | FP/Min:0.84 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 21.1 | 27.0 | 5.9 | 27.6 | 6.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.9 | 22.5 | 5.6 | 23.6 | 6.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.4 | 15.0 | 0.6 | 17.1 | 2.7 |
Sloan has played well over his last five games, averaging 23.6 fantasy points in 27.6 minutes per game. While I think he is a fine play, he is a little too expensive for me to consider him an elite point guard option. The matchup is certainly in his favor though, as the Lakers are ranked dead last against point guards this season.
Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 11-49 — Home: 6-20 — Last 10: 2-8
- Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.5 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.3 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8 (1 of 12)
The Lakers have no incentive to win right now. They need to secure a top-three pick in the draft, or else it will go to the Suns. Tonight they host the Nets in what should be a close, high-scoring game. The Lakers are projected to score 106.3 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board. They also have the highest projected point differential at +8.8.
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.2 (23 of 30)
The Nets have been a good team to pick on this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Kobe Bryant says that he hopes to play tonight, but don’t be surprised if he ends up being a late scratch. His farewell tour continues tomorrow in Denver and he wants to make sure to play in all of his final stops in the different cities across the country.
- Injury Watch:
Kobe Bryant (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Jordan Clarkson | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,000 | Salary:$6,000 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.77 | FP/Min:0.82 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.4 | 33.9 | 1.5 | 33.0 | 0.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.9 | 29.3 | 4.4 | 29.9 | 5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.3 | 18.9 | -0.4 | 20.1 | 0.8 |
Everyone, and I mean everyone is going to be on D’Angelo Russell tonight. Most people will overlook Clarkson though, as he is often the forgotten man in the Lakers’ backcourt. He has played well over his last ten games and he draws a very nice matchup against the Nets. The best part is that he is listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel.
| D’Angelo Russell | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,300 | Salary:$5,600 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.81 | FP/Min:0.89 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.3 | 29.2 | 1.9 | 30.3 | 3.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.1 | 25.0 | 2.9 | 25.2 | 3.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.5 | 19.4 | -0.1 | 18.1 | -1.4 |
If you want to fade Russell in tournaments due to the high ownership, I understand. However, sometimes you just have to ride the chalk and look to differentiate your lineups elsewhere. Russell has really played well since entering the starting lineup and he is still too cheap across the industry.
Secondary Plays
| Julius Randle | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,000 | Salary:$6,200 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.95 | FP/Min:1.01 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.5 | 30.4 | 2.9 | 29.6 | 2.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.0 | 27.9 | 1.9 | 25.9 | -0.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.1 | 17.2 | -0.9 | 17.8 | -0.3 |
Randle is a borderline elite play tonight, but I slightly prefer Thaddeus Young and Aaron Gordon if you can find the extra cap space. Randle’s production has been up over his last ten games, but we still can’t project him to play more than 30-32 minutes per game.