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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-02 19:01:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Charlotte Hornets
phoenixnba Vegas Total 205.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 13 13 22 24 15 Opp. Season 29 29 27 16 7
Last 3 Weeks 2 3 26 9 14 Last 3 Weeks 30 30 7 26 20

Phoenix Suns

Record: 15-44 — Road: 4-23 — Last 10: 1-9

The Suns continue to lose by wide margins. They are 1-9 in their last ten games and have a paltry 4-23 record on the road. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. The Suns are listed as 13-point underdogs and are only projected to score 96.3 points. Phoenix has the second lowest implied team total and the second lowest projected point differential on the board.

The Hornets have an above-average defense, ranking 11th in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency this season. Brandon Knight is hoping to return in the next few weeks, but has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest. The Suns waived Kris Humphries, which should help solidify minutes for Alex Len and Mirza Teletovic.

Elite Plays

Alex Len
alex-len-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.0 22.4 2.4 26.6 6.6
FPPG (FD) 18.1 25.8 7.7 32.3 14.3
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 20.9 5.8 24.2 9.1

This pick hinges on Len being in the starting lineup. With Kris Humphries gone, it’s hard to see the Suns moving him back to the bench, but we have seen crazier things happen with this team. In his last three games where he has played at least 24 minutes, Len has scored 35, 28, and 46 fantasy points. Assuming he draws the start tonight, we can project him to play 28+ minutes against a beatable Hornets’ frontcourt.

Secondary Plays

Mirza Teletovic
mirza-teletovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.2 24.6 5.4 28.6 9.4
FPPG (FD) 16.7 23.7 7.0 29.5 12.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.6 21.6 2.0 21.0 1.4

Teletovic is still coming off the bench, but his minutes are solidified with Kris Humphries gone. Mirza has played at least 27 minutes in four of his last five games averaging 29.5 fantasy points during that stretch. There is some concern that this could turn into a blowout, but Teletovic should see big minutes regardless of the game’s outcome.

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 30-28 — Home: 19-9 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have been playing some good ball recently, winning seven of their last ten games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings. The Hornets should be able to add another win to their resume tonight, as they host the visiting Suns. Charlotte is projected to score 109.3 points, which is the third highest team total on the board and 7.8 points above their scoring average.

The Suns have one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA, ranking 29th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Phoenix has actually done a decent job against frontcourts, but are ranked 27th or worse in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards. Spencer Hawes has missed the last five games and is listed as doubtful to play tonight.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$7,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 38.0 1.9 38.8 2.7
FPPG (FD) 35.9 38.2 2.2 34.4 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.9 23.3 0.4 20.9 -2.0

Home/road splits are often noise, but they should always be in the back of your mind when it comes to Walker. In his career, he averages five more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. Given the large spread, Walker is more a price play for me tonight. He is more of a secondary play on FanDuel ($8,200), but an elite play on DraftKings ($7,700). He draws a dream matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 29th against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 37.3 1.9 35.5 0.1
FPPG (FD) 30.0 30.3 0.3 22.9 -7.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 14.4 -2.7 11.8 -5.3

Batum’s production has been down over his last few games. While I’m not too concerned about the recent slide, I am concerned about his decrease in usage. Over his last ten games his usage has dropped nearly three percentage points and over his last five games it has dropped over five percentage points. However, given his matchup against the Suns, he is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Chicago Bulls Miami Heat
chicagonba Vegas Total 199.0 miaminba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 98.70 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter E’Twaun Moore Tony Snell Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 3 17 4 6 Opp. Season 28 14 23 21 25
Last 3 Weeks 3 13 25 22 3 Last 3 Weeks 28 7 18 30 10

Chicago Bulls

Record: 30-28 — Road: 11-17 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bulls have lost seven of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a tough matchup tonight against a slow-paced Heat team that prides itself on defense. The Bulls are listed as 6.5-point underdogs with their team total set at only 96.3 points. Chicago has the lowest projected point differential on the board tonight at -5.3.

The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Derrick Rose went through most of practice on Monday, but is expected to be a game-time decision against Miami. If Rose is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Pau Gasol, E’Twaun Moore, and Mike Dunleavy.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,300 Salary:$8,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.21 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 33.2 1.1 34.2 2.1
FPPG (FD) 38.9 45.1 6.2 47.4 8.5
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 22.8 1.5 23.0 1.7

Gasol is coming off of one of his best games of the season. While I’m not going to use him in cash games, I will try to get some exposure to him in tournaments, especially if Derrick Rose is ruled out. Gasol has been pretty matchup-proof this season and he comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 47.4 fantasy points in 34.2 minutes in his last five outings.

Mike Dunleavy
mike-dunleavy-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.8 20.8 0.0 25.7 4.9
FPPG (FD) 13.8 13.8 0.0 19.8 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.0 0.0 14.3 -0.8

Dunleavy looks like he is back to 100% and he is currently seeing a full complement of minutes. His price has yet to reflect his recent level of production, which gives us at least one more opportunity to target him at this price. He has played at least 25 minutes and has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his last four games.

Miami Heat

Record: 33-26 — Home: 18-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and currently own a one game lead over the Hawks for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Heat draw a favorable matchup tonight against the reeling Bulls. Chicago is projected to score 102.8 points, which is 5.8 points above their scoring average. It’s always to look at team’s totals compared to their scoring average, because if you just rank the team totals, you will overlook favorable matchups for slow-paced teams.

The Bulls have really fallen apart defensively since losing Jimmy Butler. They have allowed the fifth most fantasy points of any team in the NBA. Chris Bosh will miss another game for the Heat, as he is out indefinitely. Joe Johnson will make his second start as a member of the Heat. His presence hurts the fantasy appeal of both Luol Deng and Justise Winslow moving forward.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$8,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.6 27.5 -1.1 32.2 3.6
FPPG (FD) 34.3 39.4 5.1 46.9 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 17.8 2.8 19.1 4.1

Whiteside may be the only bench player in daily fantasy basketball that I’m willing to pay $8,000+ for. He has been on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging 46.9 fantasy points in 32.2 minutes per contest. It’s also nice to see that his usage is way up, as he has taken on a bigger role in the offense with Chris Bosh out.

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 32.3 1.8 34.4 3.9
FPPG (FD) 31.5 33.3 1.8 36.4 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 27.2 29.8 2.6 30.8 3.6

The major knock on Wade this season has been that we can never project him for more than 30-31 minutes. That’s no longer an issue though, as Wade is averaging 32.3 minutes over his last ten games and 34.4 minutes over his last five. Wade has an elite usage rate when Bosh is out (34.5 this season) and he draws a nice matchup against the Bulls, who are without their best on-ball defender in Jimmy Butler.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 33.7 1.2 34.4 1.9
FPPG (FD) 25.2 31.8 6.6 34.1 8.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.7 21.1 3.4 24.0 6.4

I’ve been a little late to the Dragon party. While I do have him listed as a secondary play, I’m still a little wary about paying a premium for him when I can do down to D’Angelo Russell at a cheaper price point. Dragic has been on fire over his last ten games though, averaging 31.8 fantasy points in 33.7 minutes per contest.

Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers New York Knicks
portlandnba Vegas Total 208.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 95.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Langston Galloway Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 18 17 11 6 17 Opp. Season 17 19 5 19 26
Last 3 Weeks 24 28 11 2 23 Last 3 Weeks 8 27 5 17 29

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 32-28 — Road: 13-16 — Last 10: 8-2

The Blazers are doing what most thought was improbable. They are rebuilding while still competing for a spot in the playoffs. They have won eight of their last ten games and are five games above .500 on the season. The Blazers are listed as 5.5-point favorites tonight against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. They are projected to score 106.8 points, which is 3.2 points above their scoring average.

The Knicks have been an average defensive team this season, ranking between 11th and 20th in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. The Blazers come into this game completely healthy. The issue with Portland is that outside of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, we can’t project any player for more than 28 minutes or so.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,300 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 36.1 0.1 36.0 0.0
FPPG (FD) 40.3 46.1 5.9 40.6 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 31.1 3.3 30.0 2.2

Lillard has been playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 46.1 fantasy points in 36.1 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Jose Calderon and we often see superstar players get up for their visit to Madison Square Garden. Lillard is probably more of a secondary cash game play tonight, but is one of my top GPP targets on the board.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$7,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 34.7 -0.3 35.3 0.3
FPPG (FD) 32.2 31.3 -0.9 31.8 -0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 24.0 23.6 -0.4 24.2 0.3

McCollum is an elite scorer with an elite usage rate. His price is a little more than I’d like to pay for him, but he deserves a look tonight against the Knicks in what should be a competitive game throughout. McCollum would also see a small boost if Arron Afflalo is ruled out, as he is an excellent perimeter defender.

New York Knicks

Record: 25-36 — Home: 15-17 — Last 10: 2-8

The Knicks looked like a borderline playoff team earlier in the season, but are now lottery bound. They have lost eight of their last ten games and are now 11 games below .500. Tonight they host the Blazers, who have been on fire coming into this game. The Knicks are projected to score 101.3 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Blazers are another average matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked between 13th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The one injury to monitor here is Arron Afflalo. He missed Sunday’s game with a knee injury. Langston Galloway would become an elite value play in his absence. Galloway scored 27 fantasy points in 35 minutes in his spot start against the Heat on Sunday.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony
carmelo-anthony-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 37.9 2.8 38.1 3.0
FPPG (FD) 37.7 41.1 3.4 38.9 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 25.6 27.0 1.3 27.6 2.0

Small forward is ugly tonight. It’s basically Anthony and then everybody else. We have seen a major spike in Anthony’s minutes since Kurt Rambis took over as the interim coach and we can project him for around 38 minutes tonight against the Blazers. His matchup against Al-Farouq Aminu is less than appealing, but given the lack of small forward plays, Anthony is an elite option in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis
kristaps-porzingis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 28.8 0.7 25.5 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 28.5 28.5 0.0 25.5 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 21.2 1.1 22.5 2.4

How frustrating is Porzingis? Sure, he has been inconsistent this season, but it’s hard to be confident when your minutes have such huge swings night to night. In his last five games, his playing time has ranged from 12 to 36 minutes. There are better plays for cash games (see: Thaddeus Young and Aaron Gordon), but Porzingis does have a high ceiling. He makes a nice tournament play tonight against the Blazers.

Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Orlando Magic Dallas Mavericks
orlandonba Vegas Total 214.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 97.30 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Mario Hezonja Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 12 7 10 26 11 Opp. Season 20 4 20 18 10
Last 3 Weeks 5 19 17 13 25 Last 3 Weeks 17 1 23 20 21

Orlando Magic

Record: 26-32 — Road: 10-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Magic have won five of their last ten games, but will need a strong push to make the playoffs. They are listed as 5-point underdogs tonight against the Mavericks in Dallas. The spread seems a bit low, but when in doubt, trust Vegas. The Magic are projected to score 104.5 points, which is 3.7 points above their scoring average.

The Mavericks’ defense has been the definition of mediocre this season, ranking between 14th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Evan Fournier missed Sunday’s game with a wrist injury. If he is unable to suit up tonight, give a small boost to Victor Oladipo, Mario Henzonja, and Elfrid Payton.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 38.3 6.2 38.3 6.2
FPPG (FD) 28.7 32.3 3.7 36.6 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 18.8 -0.9 20.5 0.8

Oladipo is playing as many minutes as he can handle right now. Even if Evan Fournier is able to suit up, Oladipo could see upwards of 40 minutes again tonight. Over his last ten games, the Home Dipo is averaging 36.6 fantasy points in 38.3 minutes per contest. While Wesley Matthews is a capable defender, Oladipo can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.

Aaron Gordon
aaron-gordon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 31.0 8.2 32.0 9.2
FPPG (FD) 20.6 32.3 11.7 34.0 13.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 15.5 0.9 17.7 3.2

Gordon is FINALLY starting to play more than 30 minutes per game. Over his last five outings, he is averaging 34 fantasy points in 32 minutes per game. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Mavericks and he could see a few extra minutes, as the Magic will want to use his athleticism against Dirk Nowitzki.

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic
nikola-vucevic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 33.9 1.9 31.9 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 34.7 38.8 4.2 36.4 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 24.7 2.3 25.5 3.0

Everyone knows that I love to target Vucevic as much as the next guy, but I will likely be looking elsewhere tonight in cash games. There are a number of good plays at center and Vucevic draws a difficult matchup against Zaza Pachulia. I do like Vucevic as a GPP play though, as his ownership will be down. He makes a nice pivot from Hassan Whiteside in tournaments.

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 32-28 — Home: 18-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have not been playing their best basketball recently, losing six of their last ten games. They are sizable favorites tonight against the Magic in a game that features a high total of 214 points. Dallas is projected to score 109.5 points, which is the second highest team total on the board and 7.3 points above their scoring average.

The Magic have been a mediocre team defensively this season, but are certainly an exploitable matchup. They are very efficient against shooting guards, but are ranked 18th or worse against point guards, small forwards, and power forwards. The main issue with the Mavericks is that they are a well-balanced offense that is tough to predict on an individual level.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chandler Parsons
chandler-parsons-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 32.3 3.8 30.9 2.4
FPPG (FD) 23.1 30.4 7.2 33.0 9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 19.3 2.0 19.9 2.6

Parsons has quietly put together a strong ten game stretch, averaging 30.4 fantasy points in 32.3 minutes per contest. His usage rate is up during that stretch and he draws a decent matchup tonight at home against the Magic. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his price tag.

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$4,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.61 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 33.0 -0.1 32.5 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 20.2 18.5 -1.8 21.4 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 14.1 -1.1 15.9 0.8

Deron Williams grades out as a decent value play for me tonight, but there are too many other options at his position for me to really consider using him. The only other Mavericks’ player on my radar here is Matthews. He does draw a tough matchup against the Magic, but his minutes and production are both up over his last five games, while his price is still very affordable.

Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks Golden State Warriors
atlantanba Vegas Total 220.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 114.5
Team Pace 99.20 Team Pace 102.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 27 10 14 14 24 Opp. Season 6 18 16 17 23
Last 3 Weeks 27 26 4 21 27 Last 3 Weeks 15 5 22 10 19

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 33-27 — Road: 14-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks have won five of their last ten games and are six games above .500 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Warriors and they have to face them on their home floor. The Hawks are listed as 9-point underdogs in this matchup, but they do have an implied team total of 105.5 points.

The Warriors are always a tough team to peg when analyzing players facing them. They are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency, but with their pace, they have allowed the ninth most points per game. My general rule of thumb is to target players against the Warriors when the spread is lower (preferably ten points and under) and avoid players against them when we are expecting a blowout. I likely will be avoiding the Hawks in cash games, but they make excellent GPP targets in an uptempo game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 34.6 2.6 37.4 5.4
FPPG (FD) 32.3 37.9 5.6 42.7 10.4
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 17.9 -0.4 17.5 -0.7

Horford was the one Hawks’ player that had a big game against the Warriors in their first meeting this season. He finishes with 66 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. More importantly, Horford’s minutes are way up over his last ten games. During that stretch, he is averaging 37.9 fantasy points in 34.6 minutes per contest. I will probably find a way to get up to Hassan Whiteside or Brook Lopez in cash games, but Horford makes a strong tournament play against the Warriors.

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 29.1 0.6 28.2 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 27.1 28.9 1.8 28.0 0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 22.4 0.6 21.3 -0.5

Teague is a player that I never want to use in cash games. Dennis Schroder is arguably the best backup point guard in the NBA and can steal minutes from Teague any given night. Teague makes a nice tournament play though, as he can earn more minutes with his play. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to point guards this season.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 53-5 — Home: 24-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors will look to keep their perfect home record intact tonight, as they take on the Hawks. They are listed as 9-point favorites in a game that has the highest team total on the board. The Warriors are projected to score 114.5 points, which is the highest team total on the board. Given the spread, it seems like Vegas is expecting Stephen Curry to sit this one out.

The Hawks have been surprisingly good defensively over the last few weeks. They are now ranked seventh in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. They are, however, one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. As mentioned above, Stephen Curry status is up in the air for this game. He was able to return to the game after rolling his ankle against the Thunder, but ankles are tough. Not only do they tend to swell up overnight, but Curry has a long history of ankle injuries.

Since Curry is responsible for such a large portion of the Warriors’ offense, his status will change the fantasy landscape tonight. If he is active, he is the top overall play on the board. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green would be secondary plays. However, if Curry sits, Thompson and Green would become elite plays. Shaun Livingston would also become a great value.

Elite Plays / Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,200 Salary:$10,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.57
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 34.6 0.7 35.7 1.8
FPPG (FD) 48.1 55.2 7.1 57.6 9.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.7 31.0 3.3 30.8 3.1

If Curry is cleared to play, we have to assume that he is close to 100%. The Warriors will not risk losing the MVP for one win against the Hawks, unless he is feeling good enough to play. Curry has been on absolute fire over his last five games, averaging 57.6 fantasy points. He is matchup proof and as I mentioned earlier, the Warriors have the highest team total on the board.

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$8,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.24
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.3 34.9 0.6 37.6 3.3
FPPG (FD) 38.6 36.0 -2.6 40.0 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 13.4 -2.7 14.0 -2.0

Green and Steve Kerr have gotten into some heated arguments recently. It’s not anything that can’t be fixed, but it’s worth noting that his production has been down since Kerr came back. For me, this all depends on the availability of Stephen Curry. If he is unable to suit up, Green would become an elite play in all league formats.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 34.3 1.3 35.8 2.8
FPPG (FD) 30.2 32.4 2.2 37.9 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 23.6 1.6 24.3 2.3

Thompson can be considered either way, but the difference between him being an elite play and him being a secondary play hinges on the availability of Stephen Curry. In the two games that Curry has missed this season, Thompson had a usage rate of 30. He also comes into this game red-hot, averaging 37.9 fantasy points over his last five games.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious