NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-25 19:19:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Toronto at Cleveland

Vegas Line – Toronto -4, 196 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Jack-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes

Toronto

We only have 4 games on the schedule tonight as we take it easy and prepare for a huge night in the industry tomorrow. Not only do we have the $1,000,000 Bank Shot on DraftKings, but we also have the $150,000 Big Score on DraftStreet.

The Raptors continue to fight for playoff seeding as they take on the Cavs in Cleveland tonight. The Cavs are giving up 101.7 points per game which is right around the league average. If you take a look at the DvP rankings, the Cavs have defended the Center position well, but are ranked 18th or worse against the other 4 positions on the floor. Patrick Patterson has resumed basketball activities, but will not play in tonight’s game. Amir Johnson is averaging over 35 FP’s per game over his last 7, but his price is starting to catch up to his recent level of production.

Kyle Lowry – The Cavs have been one of the worst teams against PG’s all season long and that hasn’t changed with Kyrie out of the lineup. The Cavs have surrendered the 6th most FP’s to PG’s over the last 15 days. Lowry has topped 38 FP’s in each of his last 6 games and should have another solid all-around game tonight. Lowry is on triple-double watch tonight.

DeMar DeRozan – DeMar has been extremely consistent this season. He does not fill up the stat sheet as well as Lowry does, but he always finds a way to get his points even if he is having an off night shooting the ball. He has a nice size advantage over Waiters tonight and should be able to use that to his advantage. He is averaging 23 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds in 2 meetings against the Cavs this season.

Cleveland

The Cavs have managed to stay competitive with Irving out of the lineup thanks to the stellar play of both Dion Waiters and Jarrett Jack. Luol Deng was back in the lineup against the Knicks the other night and should be in the lineup tonight as well. You can safely ignore Alonzo Gee and Matthew Dellavedova in all league types with Deng back.

The Raptors have made an effort to push the pace lately, but still own a defense that is ranked in the top 5 in most defensive categories. The Raptors are ranked 10th or better against all five positions on the floor this season in terms of fantasy points allowed. This is a night to target Cavs players in certain spots. Jarrett Jack is only $5k on FD and $5.7k on DK, however he is listed at $12.6k on DS which may be a bit too high. Dion Waiters is also priced well on FD, but may be a bit too expensive on both DK and DS.

Portland at Orlando

Vegas Line – Portland -6, 204 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Wright-Batum-Lopez
Orlando Proj. Starters – Oladipo-Afflalo-Harkless-O’Quinn-Vucevic

Portland

It sounds like the Blazers are going to keep LaMarcus Aldridge out of the lineup until he gets a practice under his belt. That means that he will be sidelined for at least 1 more game. This is a terrific matchup for the Blazers and with only 4 games on the schedule tonight, you may want to think about putting together a mini-Blazers stack against the Magic.

The Magic play at a decent pace (96 possessions per game) and they have been terrible on the defensive end of the floor. The Magic are giving up 102.2 points per game this season and are ranked 14th, 25th, 21st, 22nd, and 16th against the five positions on the floor this season. There aren’t any positions that we need to avoid here. Nicolas Batum makes a terrific play at SF, this is a nice matchup for him and I have a feeling he has another monster double-double in store.

Damian Lillard – When Aldridge is out of the lineup, everyone in the Blazers’ starting lineup sees a huge fantasy boost. Lillard is my favorite of the bunch because he becomes their #1 option offensively and he is the engine of this offense. Lillard has a great matchup tonight against the Magic who are ranked 22nd against PG’s over the last 15 days.

Robin Lopez – ROLO was a little disappointing last night against the Heat, but I will continue to be high on him as long as Aldridge is out of the lineup. He has a nice matchup against the Magic tonight and his price is extremely cheap across the industry. He should see around 35 minutes of playing time against a weak defense that is the 8th worst rebounding team in the league.

Orlando

The Magic have a decent matchup tonight against the Blazers who really like to push the tempo. The Blazers are averaging 98 possessions per game this season and haven’t been the same team defensively with Aldridge out of the lineup. Over the last 15 days, the Blazers are ranked 14th or worse against all five positions on the floor.

Jameer Nelson will miss another game tonight which means Victor Oladipo will draw the start at PG and Maurice Harkless will continue to see major playing time at SF. Nikola Vucevic makes an interesting play at Center, but he’s only topped 22 FP’s 1 time in his last 5 games. I’d rather take the discount with Lopez at Center. Kyle O’Quinn seems to have a floor of around 20 FP’s and a ceiling of about 30 FP’s. He makes a solid cash game play if the price is right.

Victor Oladipo – Oladipo is an easy play everytime Nelson is out of the lineup. He sees such a huge uptick in production when he is playing PG compared to playing SG. With the ball in his hands, he has incredible upside because he can go coast to coast for buckets on numerous occasions during a game. Oladipo has topped 32 FP’s in each of his last 2 starts and should reach that mark again tonight.

Arron Afflalo – Afflalo is not producing at the same rate that he was earlier in the season, but his price has come down across the industry and I like his matchup tonight against the Blazers who are ranked dead last against SG’s over the last 15 days. Afflalo makes a safe cash game play tonight.

Oklahoma City at Dallas

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -3, 211 Over/Under
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Oklahoma City

The Thunder will have Russell Westbrook back for tonight’s game. The Thunder are not using him in back to back situations and decided to rest him last night against the Nuggets (which turned out to be a great decision). Their matchup against the Mavs is a favorable one. Both of these teams like to push the pace and the total is set at 211 points which is the 2nd highest total of the night.

If you look at the DvP rankings of the Mavericks, there aren’t any positions that we need to specifically target or avoid. The Mavs are ranked 12th or worse against all five positions on the floor. Serge Ibaka makes a nice play at PF, the Mavs have recently struggled against PF’s and he should be able to reach 30 FP’s in this one. Kevin Durant is the top overall fantasy option tonight, but the Mavs have kept him in check so far this season. I think I’d rather save on Westbrook and have a more balanced roster tonight.

Russell Westbrook – The fact that Westbrook only plays 30 minutes per game obviously hurts his value, but he’s been seeing that same amount of minutes for weeks now and his price is adjusted based on those minutes. Westbrook has a nice matchup against Calderon and should be able to pull up and shoot over him or finish over him at the rim. I absolutely love the Westbrook play tonight.

Dallas

The Mavericks face a Thunder team that also likes to push the pace, but the Thunder are holding opponents to under 100 points per game which is the 10th best in the league. Dirk Nowitzki price is way down across the industry, but he just doesn’t seem to have that upside that he had earlier in the season. He has only reached value once in his last 5 games. Jose Calderon makes an interesting punt play at PG, the Thunder are ranked 24th against PG’s this season.

Monta Ellis – Ever since Thabo went down with his injury, the Thunder have been one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending SG’s. The Thunder have surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to SG’s over the last 15 days and Ellis gets the bonus of playing at home where he is averaging 34 FP’s per game.

New York at L.A.Lakers

Vegas Line – New York -6, 219 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Kaman

New York

The Knicks disappointed in typical Knick fashion on Sunday as they lost at home to the Cavs. Right when they start getting their fan’s hopes up, they forget to show up and lose a game at home. The Knicks are now 2.5 games behind the Hawks for the 8th seed in the East and can not afford to lose any more games. Luckily, they play the Lakers tonight who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

The Lakers are giving up the 2nd most points per game this season and are also the league’s worst rebounding team. If you look at their DvP rankings, they are ranked 29th or 30th against all five positions on the floor. This may not be a bad night to employ a mini-Knicks stack. J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler are all terrific plays tonight and should be paired up with Melo.

Carmelo Anthony – I mentioned earlier that the Mavericks have kept Durant in check this season. While I don’t think that rules out Durant, why not take Melo at a cheaper price in a better matchup? In his first meeting against the Lakers, Melo posted 35 points, 5 assists, and 4 rebounds. I see Melo having a 45 FP floor with a ceiling that is much, much higher.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers will be without their usual cast of characters and Pau Gasol may join them tonight. He is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game and D’Antoni has said that Chris Kaman may draw the start in his absence. It would be nice if we could get a more definitive answer, but we have to assume that Jordan Hill and Chris Kaman will start and see all of the minutes they can handle. Both make terrific plays tonight even against the Knicks’ tough frontcourt. Jodie Meeks makes a decent mid-range option at SG, Wesley Johnson could see a boost with Pau out, and Kendall Marshall will handle all of the PG duties with Farmar and Nash both out. Hill and Kaman are my top plays here, but the other Lakers make sense in tournaments.