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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-18 01:22:40

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – Tuesday, 8:30 PM

Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers
torontonba Vegas Total 202.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1 Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7
Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11 Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4

Toronto Raptors

Series Record: 0-0

Is it just me, or is all that we hear about the Raptors negative these days? All anyone seems to be talking about is the struggles of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but guess what? They beat the Pacers and they beat the Heat. No one seems to be giving them a chance against the Cavaliers, even though they took two of the three games in the regular season. While I don’t expect Toronto to come out of the East, I do expect them to give the Cavaliers their toughest matchup to date. The Raptors have an elite defense that should help keep these games close.

While I do like the Raptors to be competitive in this series, they lack fantasy appeal against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Raptors have by far the lowest team total on the board at only 95.8 points. Jonas Valanciunas is not expected to play in Game 1, which means Bismack Biyombo will draw another start at center. My plan is to fade DeMar DeRozan in the first game or two of this series; I prefer Klay Thompson at a similar price point.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,500
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.90 FP/Min: 1.05
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 37.0 39.5 2.5 40.0 3.0
FPPG (FD) 38.5 35.4 -3.1 52.4 13.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.5 -0.3 30.5 7.7

If the Raptors are going to have any chance at pulling off the upset in Game 1, they will need a monster performance from their point guard. Despite struggling at the start of the playoffs, he finished the last series strong, averaging 52.4 fantasy points in the final three games. He draws a nice matchup against Kyrie Irving, who has given up big fantasy outings to opposing point guards all season. The only reason why Lowry is a secondary play is the other options at his position – namely Westbrook and Curry.

Bismack Biyombo
bismack-biyombo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,200
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.85 FP/Min: 0.87
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 22.0 22.7 0.7 37.3 15.3
FPPG (FD) 18.4 19.4 1.0 30.7 12.3
TO-Adj. Usage 9.1 9.1 0.0 9.9 0.8

Biyombo is a borderline elite play in Game 1, but he is no longer a value. His price is up over $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means he needs 30+ fantasy points to reach value. He is certainly capable of that (30.7 fantasy points per game in his last three), but he draws a difficult matchup against Tristan Thompson and the Cavaliers. Cleveland is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA.

DeMarre Carroll
demarre-carroll-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,600 Salary: $4,400
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.57 FP/Min: 0.69
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.2 31.2 1.0 28.3 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 20.8 17.8 -3.0 16.1 -4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.8 11.8 -4.0 10.3 -5.5

Carroll should see all of the minutes that he can handle in this series. He is going to be tasked with defending LeBron James, who has been an unstoppable force so far in the postseason. Carroll may expend most of his energy on defense, but he should play 35+ minutes per game and he is priced affordably on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Patrick Patterson
patrick-patterson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,200 Salary: $4,600
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.52 FP/Min: 0.56
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.6 29.3 3.7 36.9 11.3
FPPG (FD) 15.3 15.2 -0.1 22.3 7.1
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 10.7 -0.2 11.6 0.7

With Jonas Valanciunas still out, the Raptors are going to ask Patterson to play close to 40 minutes again in Game 1. He finished the last series strong, averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games. The matchup against the Cavaliers isn’t great, but the minutes will be there. He is a viable punt option at power forward.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Series Record: 0-0

The Cavaliers cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. They have yet to lose a game and they had close to ten days of rest. Will rust be an issue in the first half? I can’t imagine so, as this is a veteran team led by LeBron James. They open up Game 1 as 10.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 106.3 points. While the Raptors do boast a top ten defense, the Cavaliers’ offense has been firing on all cylinders in the playoffs.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,800
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.22 FP/Min: 1.25
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.6 38.8 3.2 35.0 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 45.0 47.2 2.2 46.7 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 24.9 -2.4 27.6 0.2

James has made everything look easy so far this postseason. He is averaging 47.2 fantasy points in just over 38 minutes per game. Given the fact that the Cavaliers have been involved in so many blowouts, his potential production in this series is much higher than that. Cleveland isn’t afraid to play him 42-43 minutes per game if necessary. It’s a tough choice between James and Durant at small forward. As I mentioned yesterday, I would like to get at least one superstar, so I would only take James over Durant if you already have Westbrook.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,400
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.08 FP/Min: 1.05
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.2 2.7 31.0 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 32.4 37.1 4.7 39.1 6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 22.8 2.9 26.2 6.2

Love has seen a huge minutes’ boost so far in the playoffs and that number is only going to go up if this series is competitive. He is averaging 34.2 minutes and 37.1 fantasy points per game. His usage rate is much higher as well. While Draymond Green is the better overall play at power forward, I have Love projected as the better play in a points per dollar sense. Going down to Love will also help afford some of the more expensive superstars in the slate.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,900 Salary: $5,100
Position: C Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.64 FP/Min: 0.77
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.7 28.8 1.1 25.5 -2.2
FPPG (FD) 21.3 18.4 -2.9 19.3 -2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 8.3 -1.6 12.2 2.3

Thompson was a key piece for the Cavaliers’ playoff run last season and he has played well again so far this postseason. In the eight games, he is averaging 18.4 fantasy points in just under 30 minutes per game. With Bismack Biyombo starting at center for Toronto, the Cavaliers are going to need Thompson to play big minutes in this series. I see him as an elite play on FanDuel where he is listed as a center and more of a secondary play on DraftKings where he is listed as a power forward.

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $8,200
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.02 FP/Min: 0.93
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 36.3 4.8 35.0 3.5
FPPG (FD) 30.8 36.9 6.2 33.4 2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 25.0 -0.7 21.7 -4.1

Irving has taken on a bigger role offensively so far in the postseason. He is averaging 37 fantasy points in 36.3 minutes per contest. While he can post a big outing at any time, I am not going to be looking his way in cash games. Westbrook and Curry both provide higher floors and they both have better matchups in a fast-paced game environment. Plus, the Raptors were ranked second in fantasy points allowed to point guards during the regular season.

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,900 Salary: $5,200
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.61 FP/Min: 0.63
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.7 35.0 4.3 33.2 2.5
FPPG (FD) 20.3 21.3 0.9 18.0 -2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 11.0 -5.0 9.4 -6.6

Smith is a borderline elite play at shooting guard, especially on FanDuel where you have to roster two of them. His price is cheap and we know that he isn’t afraid to chuck up shots. My one concern with Smith is his usage rate. He had a much higher usage in the Cavaliers’ offense during the regular season. The big three from Cleveland are soaking up a lot more usage now that we are into the postseason.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – Wednesday, 9:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 221.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 114.8
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19 Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6 Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Series Record: 1-0

The Thunder shocked everyone with a win over the Warriors in Game 1. They now have more wins in San Antonio and in Golden State than every other team in the NBA does combined this season. They picked up their split, but they would love nothing more than to head back to Oklahoma City with a two-game lead. The Thunder are sizable underdogs in Game 2 though, as the Warriors are favored by eight points. I do want to point out the fact that the Thunder didn’t give in to the small ball approach of the Warriors in Game 1. Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams, and Enes Kanter all played big minutes, which bodes well for their fantasy value the rest of the series.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $11,100
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.39 FP/Min: 1.46
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.4 36.7 2.3 39.2 4.8
FPPG (FD) 48.8 51.0 2.2 56.2 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 30.6 2.2 30.9 2.6

Despite only scoring three actual points in the first half, Westbrook turned it on late in the game and finished with 63 fantasy points. That outing is a perfect example of the type of upside that he has even when his shot isn’t falling. Westbrook remains an elite play for Game 2, as there doesn’t appear to be anyone on the Warriors that can stop him off the dribble, especially in transition.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.99 FP/Min: 1.23
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.8 40.2 4.4 43.6 7.8
FPPG (FD) 46.4 39.9 -6.6 44.3 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 26.5 0.2 26.9 0.6

Durant was ice cold in the fourth quarter, but he was nails when it mattered most. He hit a huge jump shot to put the Thunder up five with less than a minute to play. He finished Game 1 with 45.5 fantasy points and his price came down a few hundred dollars on FanDuel. If he shoots a little better from the floor in Game 2, he should be able to put together a better fantasy outing than he did in Game 1.

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $5,300
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.72 FP/Min: 0.83
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.3 0.2 33.1 1.0
FPPG (FD) 25.4 23.3 -2.0 21.6 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 11.0 -3.9 10.5 -4.4

I mentioned before Game 1 that I thought this series would help Ibaka get going again, after he really struggled in the six games against the Spurs. Ibaka played well in the first game against the Warriors, scoring 27 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. As long as he is going to continue to see 35 minutes or so, he will remain an elite play at this price point.

Steven Adams
steven-adams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $5,900
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.79 FP/Min: 0.65
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.2 32.5 7.3 37.3 12.1
FPPG (FD) 19.3 25.6 6.3 31.6 12.3
TO-Adj. Usage 10.4 10.0 -0.5 11.2 0.7

The biggest takeaway from Game 1 is that the Thunder stuck to their game plan. They beat the Warriors up on the inside with Ibaka, Kanter, and Adams. The man with the great mustache played 37 minutes and score 33 fantasy points. He is considerably cheaper than Bismack Biyombo and he is playable in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Dion Waiters
dion-waiters-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,800 Salary: $4,000
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.63 FP/Min: 0.72
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.6 25.1 -2.5 24.7 -2.9
FPPG (FD) 16.7 15.8 -1.0 14.4 -2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 13.7 -1.5 11.6 -3.6

Waiters was another player that I mentioned to keep your eye on during this series. The Spurs series was more about plays on the defensive end of the floor, but now the Thunder need all of the scoring that they can get. He played well in Game 1, scoring 17 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. The biggest reason to roster Waiters is for the cap savings that will allow you to spend up on the studs.

Golden State Warriors

Series Record: 0-1

The Warriors took a lot of ill-advised shots in the fourth quarter of Game 1, although if the shots would have went in then we would have praised them for their ability to get shots up quickly. At the end of the day, it was just a rare bad outing from the Warriors offensively. Look for them to bounce back in a big way in Game 2. I fully expect them to even the series up before it shifts to Oklahoma City for Game 3. The Warriors are 8-point favorites in this game with the highest team total on the board. If there was ever a time to load up on Golden State, this would be it.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,700
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.35 FP/Min: 1.73
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.2 30.2 -4.0 37.6 3.4
FPPG (FD) 47.9 40.7 -7.2 52.0 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 28.8 1.0 29.7 1.8

For whatever reason, the Warriors went away from Curry in the fourth quarter until it was too late. I’m not sure if we should credit the Thunder defense or if the Warriors just didn’t do a good enough job of getting him open. Either way, expect that to change in Game 2. The two-time MVP is my favorite play overall in this slate. Even with his relatively quiet fourth quarter, he still finished with 47.5 fantasy points in Game 1.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,800
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.02 FP/Min: 0.94
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.3 36.4 3.1 38.8 5.5
FPPG (FD) 30.9 37.1 6.2 37.2 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.1 1.8 21.4 -0.9

The Warriors went to Thompson early and often in Game 1. While that is promising, I don’t expect him to average more shot attempts than Stephen Curry when the series is all said and done. I still like Thompson as an elite play in this game, but there could be a time or two where we may want to look to fade him in this series.

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,900
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.20 FP/Min: 1.15
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.7 37.8 3.1 40.1 5.4
FPPG (FD) 39.1 45.3 6.2 44.9 5.8
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 18.8 2.8 17.3 1.3

Green is the one superstar that is going to get overlooked in this round of the playoffs. With Curry, Westbrook, James, and Durant all in the mix, it’s tough to pay over $9,000 for Green when you can just spend a bit more to get one of the four other studs. Green is still worth a look in tournaments though, as we know he has 50+ fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,500 Salary: $4,100
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.69 FP/Min: 0.67
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 26.6 29.9 3.3 33.3 6.7
FPPG (FD) 18.5 20.7 2.2 17.7 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 10.9 0.2 7.2 -3.5

Iguodala has been a model of inconsistency so far in the playoffs. In his last five games, he has scored 31, 13, 12, 17, and 23 fantasy points. The good news is that he played 33 minutes in Game 1, including crunch time down the stretch. If he sees 30+ minutes per game, he will have a few big outings in this series that end up being a big difference maker in DFS.

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,300 Salary: $4,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.57 FP/Min: 0.69
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.9 31.7 0.8 32.6 1.7
FPPG (FD) 21.0 18.0 -3.0 17.6 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 12.6 -1.3 11.6 -2.3

Barnes has also struggled with consistency in the postseason. He has struggled with his shot, but he did manage to knock down a couple of threes in Game 1. Barnes isn’t my favorite play ever, but he is cheap and he should see 30+ minutes in what will be the highest scoring game in the slate. I certainly wouldn’t argue against you playing Barnes, especially at his price point.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious