NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 26th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-27 03:20:15

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 6:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Team Total		103.5					Team Total		109.0
			Pace +/-		1.0					Pace +/-		1.1
Proj. Starter	Dennis Schroder	Tim Hardaway	Taurean Prince	Paul Millsap	Dwight Howard		Proj. Starter	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	9	16	17	22	20		Adj. DvP	24	25	28	8	7
DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	0.03	1.54	1.33		DRPM	-2.53	-1.35	2.66	3.29	2.92

Atlanta Hawks

• Notable Injuries: None

• Atlanta Hawks Offense
  Points Per Game: 103.2 (21 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 103.5 (3 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (1 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 99.8 (10 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: 1.0 (2 of 4)

• Washington Wizards Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (21 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.0 (14 of 30)

This series has been a fun one, not only is it tied 2-2, but we have an actual beef that is playing out during and in between games! Paul Millsap thinks the Wizards are more of an MMA syndicate than basketball team and Markieff Morris thinks Millsap is a crybaby… and, well, that’s about it. Alright, it’s not the most exciting beef ever, but it’s better than them all being bros and hugging it out every game while they discuss summer vacation plans. Millsap keeps getting the better of Morris too, putting him in foul trouble essentially every game while he’s put up solid numbers. Over the last three, he’s averaged 25.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 48.2 FD points. His last outing was a “down game” relative to the previous two, but he still managed to put up 41.3 FD points.

Schroder has also gotten in on the fun, although early foul trouble in Game 4 destroyed his fantasy performance. Disregarding Game 1, when Millsap was abnormally poor, Schroder and Millsap have usage rates of 31.6% and 30.8%, respectively, while the next closest player is Tim Hardaway Jr. at 22.6%. They’ve taken over the team in the postseason. Based on how this series has progressed, we’ve seen Schroder’s salary rise. While Isaiah Thomas may have a higher ceiling than Schroder, the Hawks point guard provides a savings of $600 on FanDuel and $1,100 on DraftKings and he’s demonstrated a level of consistency this postseason, outside of Game 4, that Thomas hasn’t. Schroder’s improvements aren’t as overt in his bottom line, his usage is up 2.2% and is production has increased by 0.08 FD ppm. However, the change in Millsap’s play have been downright impressive: his usage increased 5.4% and his fantasy numbers are up 0.36 FD ppm to 1.39. The issue now is whether he can keep putting up nice stat lines and the answer seems to be ‘yes.’ He hasn’t been shooting out of his mind; on the series he’s converted 50.9% of his attempts, which is just slightly above his ability – he’s a career 49.3% shooter and he was 44.2% from the field this season. Keep in mind Washington allowed the second-highest field goal percentage to opponents after the break (48.4%). Plus, he’s become more a facilitator on offense, leading to a rise in his assist rate; over the past three games, his rate has roughly been 26.6%, an 8.7% increase above the regular season. He may have trouble rebounding if Dwight Howard keeps earning more playing time though. In Games 2 and 3, when Howard played 27 or fewer minutes, he averaged 12 boards and double-doubled each time out. Howard received 30 minutes in Game 4, grabbed 15 rebounds, and Millsap pulled down nine. Howard perhaps motivated to prove himself, took an abnormal number of shots in Game 4 as well. After averaging 5.0 FGAs through three games, he took 14 on Monday, possibly cutting into Millsap’s offensive output a bit. Howard has maintained a 23.4% rebounding rate this series, the best on either team, and he may have earned some playing time with his performance last time out. While we can’t project him for more than 30 minutes or so, it could have a slightly negative impact on Millsap’s production. As for Howard, he may have hit his ceiling game for this series in Game 4. His usage is down 4.5% to 15.7% and his production has slipped 0.07 FD ppm to 1.03. He’s not going to be able to do much better than 16 points and 15 rebounds in 30 minutes with the way Millsap and Schroder are playing.

Due to Schroder’s three first-quarter fouls, Kent Bazemore became a big part of the Hawks’ offense. He finished the game with a 48.0% assist rate during his 24 minutes of action, leading to seven assists. He managed to take 12 shots, a series-high for him and scored 16. This was a tournament winning performance, but it’ll be very difficult for him to repeat it as he played plenty of minutes without the starting point guard. He can certainly get hot off the bench and score points, as he’s done on several occasions since being moved out of the starting five, it’s his peripheral stats that are a concern. He’ll undoubtedly come with high ownership today on this two-gamer. Likewise, Jose Caulderon was summoned into action with Schroder limited, he earned 20 minutes and returned 18.9 FD points. He was held below 10 minutes in the first two games and only made it to 13 in Game 3 due to the blowout. It’s very unlikely he sees many minutes tonight. We also saw Tim Hardaway Jr. and Taurean Prince score in the double-figures. Both of their workloads seem secure around 30 minutes. Hardaway has been struggling this series, producing 0.55 FD ppm, a decline of 0.22. He’s been plagued by poor shooting, going 34.8% from the field. While he can do better, as a scoring-dependent player, he’s not a great prospect with Schroder and Millsap taking on more of that burden, as it severely limits his upside. Hardaway has averaged 11.5 FGAs, which is on par with his season average despite an increase in playing time – he averaged 21.81 FD ppg this season and 66.5% of his fantasy production came through points. Prince’s ceiling is also capped, but the rookie has produced 0.65 FD ppm and he’s scored at least 17.3 FD points in each game though, so at least he’s consistent.

After Bazemore, Ersan Ilyasova is the next guy off the bench, but he’s only receiving around 20 minutes a night, so he’s not a strong target at this point. His price is more favorable on DK at $3k; he’s averaged 13.25 DK points in this series.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ersan Ilyasova (DK)

Washington Wizards

• Notable Injuries: Ian Mahinmi (calf, out)

• Washington Wizards Offense
  Points Per Game: 109.2 (5 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 109.0 (1 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (2 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 99.7 (11 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: 1.1 (1 of 4)

• Atlanta Hawks Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (10 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (4 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.0 (17 of 30)

Poor Markieff Morris. If Millsap wasn’t such a baby, he wouldn’t have accrued five fouls for three straight games now. Morris has played 24 or fewer minutes in two of the past three games and has been held under 30 in all three. He’s struggled to find a rhythm as a result, he’s now shooting 29.6% over the last three matchups. At this point, it has to factor into the decision-making process, because he’s had issues every game – in Game 1 he had four fouls, although he did manage to play 38 minutes and score 40.4 FD points. At the same time, he still has a usage rate of 23.0%, 1.1% above the regular season, and his per-minute production has remained steady, only dropping 0.02 FD ppm to 0.81. If, and this is apparently a big if, he can prevent himself from fouling, he could be a great tournament play. His ownership will likely be below Nikola Mirotic’s, but he could play 36+ minutes and his per-36 pace in this series is a solid 29.06 FD points. It’s certainly a gamble, but playing the ownership game is essential to differentiate lineups on small slates like this.

A side effect of Morris’ reduced workload has been an increase in Gortat’s. In each game Morris was held to 24 or fewer minutes, Gortat earned 35. In the two games when Morris played at least 29, Gortat received 31 and 29. The latter game was lower due to the blowout. So, we can expect Gortat to play around 30-32 minutes if Morris has a normal game. He was an absolute beast on the glass on Monday, hauling in 18 boards. He couldn’t score though, he put up two points on four shots. Overall, his usage is down 4.4% in this series, but his production has ticked up 0.05 FD ppm to 0.90 as his rebounding production is up and it helps that he’s accumulated 11 blocks in four games. His rebounding as been aided by Howard’s limited workload and he could potentially keep blocking fools if Atlanta keeps driving to the hoop 34.0 times per game, which is the third-highest rate in the playoffs. Schroder alone has been blocked eight times in this series; 28.6% of his attempts inside of eight feet have been stuffed and he’ll keep driving.

It’s possible Otto Porter;s minutes shot up to 39 due to Morris’ issues, although Washington only played Bojan Bogdanovic and Kelly Oubre a combined 27 minutes. Porter may continue to push towards 36 minutes regardless of Morris’ status. Porter hasn’t done much this series, his usage rate has fallen 2.7% and his production has dropped by 0.20 FD ppm to 0.63, but he is capable of putting up big games when he has the time. He topped 30 FD points in 27 of the 44 games he earned at least 33 minutes this season and he was pretty consistent, exceeding 25 FD points in 35. Although we have to temper expectations due to the increased usage rates of John Wall and Bradley Beal, he’s a solid target at $5k or less on DK and FD.

Beal and Wall are both over 30% in usage, the most notable difference lies with Beal, as his rate has increased by 3.4%. It hasn’t translated to more fantasy points on average, as he’s produced 0.88 FD ppm as opposed to 0.94 during the season, but that can be attributed to poor shooting. He’s connected on 26.8% of his three-pointers this series after hitting 40.4% over the course of the year. He was a little better last game, hitting 5-of-14, and there’s no doubt he’ll continue to fire away. Wall double-doubled last game, although his 22 points weren’t enough to pay off his salary. He took 19 shots though, which is closer to what we want – he only took 12 in Game 3 in his limited action – and he continued his success of driving to the basket, going 4-for-6 within five feet. He just couldn’t hit from 8-24 feet (1-for-8). He should be fine from that perspective going forward and he’s maintained a 47.6% assist rate throughout this series, so he’ll continue racking up assists.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 8:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		202.0					Vegas Total		202.0
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Team Total		97.0					Team Total		105.0
			Pace +/-		0.6					Pace +/-		-1.0
Proj. Starter	Isaiah Canaan	Dwyane Wade	Jimmy Butler	Nikola Mirotic	Robin Lopez		Proj. Starter	Isaiah Thomas	Avery Bradley	Gerald Green	Jae Crowder	Al Horford
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	18	11	13	24	21		Adj. DvP	22	13	15	19	4
DRPM	-4.21	-1.13	-1.56	1.37	1.59		DRPM	-1.11	-0.63	1.86	1.19	0.24

Chicago Bulls

• Notable Injuries: Rajon Rondo (thumb, out)

• Chicago Bulls Offense
  Points Per Game: 102.9 (23 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 97.0 (4 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -5.9 (4 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 97.7 (20 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (3 of 4)

• Boston Celtics Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (27 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.4 (15 of 30)

Rajon Rondo thought about playing tonight, but then everyone was like, “wait, you’re not a doctor.” So they gave him another X-Ray last night and as it turns out, fractured thumbs don’t heal in a week and the “bone is still the same.” Who would’ve guessed that?

That means Isaiah Canaan will get another start after producing a stat line of 13 points, three assists, two rebounds, and two steals in Game 4. Chicago got absolutely nothing out of Michael Carter-Williams and even less from Jerian Grant, so we could see The Canaan shoot past 30 minutes again tonight. His price on FanDuel seems off at $1,800. He’s not a great fantasy player by any stretch of the imagination, but he did set a per-36 pace of 19.84 FD points this season and he managed at least 9.0 FD points nine of ten games with at least 24 minutes (his peak was 31) and he eclipsed 15 FD points in five. He won’t be afraid to shoot, he’s taken at least nine field goal attempts and four three-pointers in six of those ten games. He’s not nearly as good a deal on DraftKings at $3,800 and his per-36 pace is 21.78 DK points and he crossed 20 DK points just twice in those ten games between 24-31 minutes.

Without Rondo available, Butler almost played the entire game. He received 46 minutes and should continue rolling past 40 every night. His usage rate was just 27.7% though and he only took 16 shots. We’ll definitely want to see more out of him and we should tonight. When Rondo was off the court this season he scored an extra 1.92 actual points every 36 minutes, on average. His assist rate was the most dramatic change, he had nine total after assisting on 38.3% of his teammates’ field goals. That’s quite an improvement from the game before when he blanked in the category. It makes total sense for him to be a bigger facilitator when their starting point guard goes from a 37.0% assist rate (Rondo) to 9.0% (Canaan). Dwyane Wade should also step up in that regard as he boasted a 22.4% assist rate this season, but he’s only averaged 2.5 per game over the past two matchups while the Bulls, as a team, averaged 16.2. Even without Rondo, they should bring that number up and the improvement should primarily come through Butler and Wade. The veteran shooting guard received 38 minutes last night and he should keep pushing 36 without Rondo. Surprisingly, he only took 12 shots and he’s averaging just 14.5 FGAs this series after averaging 15.9 in 29.9 minutes per game during the season. That may be a result of pace as this series has averaged 95.24 in the metric, but we should still expect him to be more active on the offensive end.

Mirotic took 11 shots in Game 4, eight from three, and he’ll keep shooting. He’s going to go as his three-ball goes for the most part (he was 2-for-8 in Game 4), but he has managed to pull down 6.0 rebounds per game. With Boston going small, Bobby Portis has earned more time – he received 23 minutes in Game 4 – but it’s come at the expense of Robin Lopez, not Mirotic, who ended up earning 34 minutes last time out. Mirotic should have a reliable workload going forward as long as Boston maintains their small ball strategy. It’s also good for Portis, who turned 23 minutes into 21 DK points. Over the course of the series, he’s produced 1.01 DK ppm and we saw some great upside out of him in Game 1 when he nearly double-doubled with 19 points and nine rebounds.

Of course, this all means Lopez isn’t a reliable fantasy target; he’s been held to 22 or fewer minutes the last two games. He was looking great in the first two, which is part of the reason Boston has countered they way they have, and since they’ve won two straight, there’s no doubt they’ll continue on in this manner.

Paul Zipser is a potential dart throw as he’s been able to score 16 points off the bench, but his minutes declined last game to 14 in favor of Portis, so he’s not a strong option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Isaiah Canaan (FD, based on salary)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Canaan (DK), Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic

Boston Celtics

• Notable Injuries: None

• Boston Celtics Offense
  Points Per Game: 108.0 (7 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 105.0 (2 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (3 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 99.3 (12 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -1.0 (4 of 4)

• Chicago Bulls Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (6 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (6 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (3 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.7 (12 of 30)

Boston is starting Gerald Green and it’s working. They’ve won two straight and Green popped off for 18 points and seven rebounds in Game 4. His salary has come up and he only played 23 minutes last game, but his salary isn’t prohibitive considering the selection at shooting guard. He’s going to have to get hot and shoot a bunch in his limited time again to pay it off though. That’s because Marcus Smart is going to play ahead of him most of the game. Smart earned 33 minutes in Game 4 and turned them into 28.75 DK points. His usage is down 2.3% to 17.2% in the postseason, but he’s earning an extra 0.06 DK ppm, bring his pace to 0.85. With Boston playing smaller, he’s been able to grab more rebounds. He’s averaging 6.3 per game, 2.4 above his regular season performance. That’s helped make up for his reduction in scoring, he’s taking 8.3 FGAs per game, 1.0 fewer than normal. More than likely that’s also a side effect of putting more shooters on the floor.

Isaiah Thomas is also down in scoring, he’s averaging 25.5 per game after dropping 28.9 during the season and he’s taking 18 FGAs per game as opposed to 19.4. Of course, he’s been dealing with outside issues since the beginning of this series. Fortunately, he was driving to the basket a ton and even smiling throughout Game 4 – which is nice to see on a human level. He finished with 21 FGAs and 33 points after getting to the line for 13 FTAs. His assist rate has been down in this series (29.1% vs 32.5%), but he dished seven last game on a 38.2% rate. He finished with a usage rate of 44.2% and we should expect him to control the offense in this manner going forward. That makes him a nice deal around the industry tonight, although, as mentioned, Schroder is a nice $1,100 discount on DK.

With less Lopez, Al Horford has averaged 10.0 rebounds in the past two games. He should continue to pull boards down. He’s also averaged 16.5 points, which is a nice little bump above his season average of 14.0. His assist rate in the series is 26.5%, but that will could decline a bit with Thomas’ on the rise. In Game 4 it was 17.8%. The great thing about Horford is that he does contribute in all three of these categories each game, which provides him a nice fantasy floor. So far this postseason, he’s earned an extra 0.07 DK ppm for an average pace of 1.12 and he should keep pushing towards 36 each night. He’ll maintain an advantage when Lopez is off the floor as well, so he has a solid outlook tonight.

Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both seeing plenty of action, but they tend to cut into each other’s production along with Marcus Smart. Crowder shot up to 40 minutes in Game 4, but he only scored 19 DK points. Bradley stumbled to 13.25 across 33 minutes. It didn’t help that Gerald Green grabbed seven boards and shot 13 times. Plus, Smart grabbed nine rebounds and contributed six assists off the bench. Boston has a deep team, which is good in real life, but it makes it difficult for any one player of the Bradley/Crowder/Smart trio to pop off for a big fantasy score. Bradley usually plays more minutes and had the best per-minute fantasy production this season (0.91 DK ppm), but he’s struggled lately outside of one game. Smart has been playing the best out of the three from a per-minute perspective in the playoffs (0.91 DK ppm; 0.71 for Bradley; 0.69 for Crowder), but he normally gets less time on the court. Overall, Bradley and Smart seem more appealing than Crowder as they have more upside. While they’re in play on a two-game slate, it’s tough to trust them with Boston’s current strategy.

Also of interest is Jonas Jerebko, he’s earned 10 minutes in consecutive games and he’s averaged 9.6 FD points and 10.0 DK points. He’s $1,600 on FD and $2,000 on DK. While he’s not the most exciting option, he’s a potential value tournament play as he fits in with Boston’s approach and it looks like he’ll keep getting on the court. It’s a risky proposition with limited upside as he averaged just 0.64 FD ppm during the season, but he’s up to 0.85 this postseason and he’s a potential way to differentiate lineups on the two-game slate.

Kelly Olynyk is producing an impressive 1.04 FD ppm this postseason on a 20.4% usage rate, but he’s still not getting time even with Amir Johnson moving out of the lineup. He’s actually earned less since the change, failing to exceed 16 minutes the past two games. Lastly, Terry Rozier dropped from 23 minutes in Game 3 to 11 in Game 4. It’s likely he stays near the 10-minute mark as Boston will lean on the other guys mentioned above – some of the extra time in the third game was due to game flow.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Gerald Green, Jonas Jerebko, Kelly Olynyk