NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-19 21:55:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Detroit at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Charlotte -2.5, 201 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Detroit

These two teams squared off last night in Detroit and the Bobcats got the better of the Pistons. Last night’s game was very fast-paced and we saw big fantasy performances from quite a few players. Tonight’s game is expected to be the same type of game, although I expect it to be closer this time around. The Bobcats have really struggled to defend two positions this season; in terms of fantasy points allowed, they are ranked 18th against PG’s and 26th against Centers.

Andre Drummond – Drummond was all over the place in last night’s game. It seemed like every shot that went up was either going to go in or Drummond was going to get the rebound. He finished with 16 points and 22 rebounds which ended up totaling around 50 FP’s. He has the same matchup tonight and I don’t see any reason why he won’t have another big game unless he gets into early foul trouble. His price has gone up on most sites, but he makes a tremendous play tonight.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings got off to a slow start last night, but he had a big second half and ended up finishing with 38 FP’s. His price has gone up across the industry and it seems like most people are ignoring him due to that high price tag. He’s very much in play tonight though. There are few players in his price range that are capable of producing 40 FP outings.

Charlotte

The Bobcats really played well last night in Detroit and will try to beat the Pistons two nights in a row as they take them on at home. The Pistons are allowing the 6th most PPG to their opponents at 102.7 per game. They have been one of the worst defensive teams all season long and with their head coaching situation still in flux, that’s not going to change anytime soon. Last night, we saw big games from Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker, and Gerald Henderson. They are all in play again tonight against the Pistons who are ranked 14th or worse against every position in terms of FP’s allowed.

Al Jefferson – Even though Drummond had a monster game last night, Jefferson was not to be outdone. Jefferson posted an incredible stat line of 32 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists which equated to a ridiculous 58 FP performance. While Drummond is a big body and a great rebounder, he still has a lot of work to do defensively. Jefferson should be able to take advantage of his mis-match in the post again tonight.

Kemba Walker – The Pistons have really struggled to defend opposing PG’s all season long and last night was no different. Kemba silently posted 34 FP’s in last night’s game and I actually think he should be able to top those numbers tonight. Kemba has been great at home all season long and is one of my favorite cash game plays tonight.

Orlando at Cleveland

Vegas Line – Cleveland -6.5, 196 Over/Under
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harris-Davis-Vucevic
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Zeller

Orlando

The Magic almost picked up a rare road win last night in Milwaukee as they just fell short right at the end. Tonight they travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavs who have actually been playing some pretty decent basketball of late. This game is expected to be fairly close and fairly high scoring. Looking at the DvP rankings, the Cavs have really struggled against PG’s this season. Arron Afflalo is also worth mentioning here, his price has dropped on most sites and he should be able to exploit his height advantage over Jack in the post.

Jameer Nelson – Now is the time to buy low on Jameer. He is less than $9k on DS, only $5.5k on FD, and $9k on SS. His price will surely go up here soon. Jameer finally broke out of his slump last night against the Bucks and he should be able to keep it going tonight against the Cavs who have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season.

Nikola Vucevic – Vucey was one of my favorite plays last night. While he didn’t have a huge game, he did manage to top 30 FP’s. I think he can provide a similar effort tonight against the Cavs who will be without their best interior defender. Vucevic is starting to hit his stride and is one of the more consistent options at Center tonight.

Cleveland

There are going to be quite a few people upset at Kyrie and the Cavs today. The Cavs got off to an extremely hot start in Philly last night and never turned back. This hurt the fantasy value of Kyrie Irving, Luol Deng, and Dion Waiters. Hopefully tonight’s contest will be a little different.

The Magic are giving up 101 PPG to their opponents this season and even gave up over 100 points to the Bucks last night which is hard to do. The Cavs offense should keep rolling tonight. The Magic have not defended any position particularly well this season, but look for their DvP ranking against Centers to improve now that Vucevic is back in the lineup. Luol Deng is still under-priced on most sites, but his recent production suggests that you may want to look in another direction. Tyler Zeller is another player that I am mixed on. He could easily fall back down to Earth tonight, but is still worth consideration on sites where he is close to minimum salary.

Kyrie Irving – Even though he burned a lot of us last night, we have to move on. Kyrie has another terrific matchup tonight against Jameer and the Magic who are below average at defending the PG position. The biggest stat to note here is that Kyrie is averaging over 36 FP’s per game at home this season. He should be in for a nice bounce back game.

Tristan Thompson – Thompson has really played well in Varejao’s absence. In the last 3 games, Thompson is averaging over 35 FP’s. It doesn’t look promising for Varejao tonight, so if he has to sit out again, don’t be afraid to continue using Thompson. DS is really the only site where he may be too expensive.

Chicago at Toronto

Vegas Line – Toronto -2.5, 183 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas

Chicago

It’s never a great sign when you see the total for the game in the low 180’s. The Bulls play at an extremely slow pace averaging only 92 possessions per game. The Raptors have picked up their pace of late, but still average less than 95 possessions per game on the season. While anything can happen in the NBA, we have to use what’s in front of us and make the best decisions with the information available. This game should be a defensive battle and that does not bode well for high fantasy production. Joakim Noah would be the one player to target, but both Jefferson and Drummond look like better options at similar price points.

Toronto

The Raptors have a very tough matchup tonight against the Bulls who are only giving up 92 points per game. That is second only to the Grizzlies. The Bulls are ranked in the top 10 defensively against every position in terms of fantasy points allowed. You could make a case for Kyle Lowry here, but he has a tough matchup and will have less possessions than usual to work with. With 10 other games on the schedule, this game is probably best to avoid altogether.

Washington at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Atlanta -1.5, 200 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon

Washington

The Wizards have a nice matchup tonight against the Hawks. The Hawks play at a pace just above the league average and are giving up 101 PPG to their opponents this season. The total of 200 points suggests that this should be a fairly high scoring game. Looking at the DvP rankings of the Hawks, basically everyone from the Wizards is in play. The Hawks are ranked 12th or worse against all five positions on the floor.

This is a case where all five starters from the Wizards are in play. John Wall probably has the toughest matchup of the group though and has terrible road splits this season. I like his price on DS, but think that there are better options in his price range on other sites. Marcin Gortat makes a nice cash game play. Trevor Ariza makes a nice upside play.

Nene Hilario – Millsap has had a very solid season. While Millsap does manage to get a lot of blocks and steals, he is under-sized for a PF and it often shows in the defensive rankings. The Hawks have given up the 2nd most FP’s to opposing PF’s over the last 15 days and I’m expecting Nene to have a great outing tonight.

Bradley Beal – Beal has really turned into a productive fantasy player and sites have been very slow to adjust his salary. He is still very affordable on both FD and DK. I like the matchup tonight against what will likely be Lou Williams. Beal has been much more involved offensively as well as he has had at least 15 shot attempts in 4 of his last 6 games.

Atlanta

The Hawks will likely be without DeMarre Carroll again tonight which means Lou Williams would draw another start at SG. He has given us some mixed results in his starts this season and is probably best served as a GPP-only play tonight. There aren’t any great matchups on the Hawks tonight, the Wizards are ranked between 11th and 15th against all positions over the last 15 days.

I’m not going to highlight any plays here because I think their matchups are average at best, but Kyle Korver is under-priced on a few sites, Jeff Teague could get things going in an uptempo game, and Millsap always provides nice upside down low.

Indiana at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Indiana -3, Over/Under 197
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Budinger-Brewer-Love-Turiaf

Indiana

The Pacers have an excellent matchup tonight. It’s rare that we have a game that is expected to be close and to have it be a great matchup for one team and a terrible matchup for the other. That’s the case tonight though. The Wolves play at a very fast pace averaging 99 possessions per game and have not been great defensively as they have given up an average of 102 PPG to their opponents.

Looking at the DvP rankings, it’s hard to find a bad matchup for the Pacers tonight. The only position that the Wolves have not defended well is the Center position. That coupled with an uptempo game should be enough to avoid Roy Hibbert tonight. George Hill may be a bit over-priced too as his salary is finally catching up to that hot streak that he went on before the All-Star break. The other three starters are all in play though.

Lance Stepehenson – Stephenson has really underwhelmed us over the last 5 games, but the good news is that he has such a high floor that he never kills your lineup even when he doesn’t have a great game. It’s been a while since he has had a breakout game and I think tonight could be the night for it. He is at his best when he is controlling things in the open court and to put it nicely, the Wolves transition defense is lacking.

Paul George – It has been extremely tough to decide between Stephenson and George this season. While you may have that dilemma again tonight, you could easily solve it by taking them both. The Wolves have really struggled to contain talented wing players this season and an uptempo game is where both of these players excel. George snapped out of his slump with a big game last night and should back it up with another one tonight.

Minnesota

There are two opponents that I almost always avoid for daily fantasy purposes. They are the Pacers and the Grizzlies. While this game is expected to be fairly high scoring, I hate taking players against the best defense in the NBA. The Pacers are holding their opponents to a league-leading 90 PPG and are ranked 7th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. Don’t get tempted by the high total of 197 points, just avoid the Wolves and move on.