NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-26 20:43:33

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Orlando at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Orlando -4, 214 Over/Under
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Vucevic
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Anderson-Young-Moultrie

Orlando

If you had to construct a lineup of players from only one game tonight, I think you could make a pretty competitive team out of only Magic and Sixers players. The Sixers are in complete tank mode and their defense has reached the level of all-time terrible status. They are giving up over 110 points per game to their opponents this season and are ranked 29th or 30th against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

The Magic were without Arron Afflalo last night and he didn’t even travel with the team so I have a hard time seeing him playing tonight. If he does have to sit, look for Maurice Harkless to get another start at SF. He’s played pretty well when given big minutes and had arguably his best game of the season last night. Jameer Nelson also looks like a solid play tonight. While he struggled last night, I will take 30 minutes from a cheap starting PG against the Sixers any day.

Victor Oladipo – Oladipo is the first recommended play of the night and he also happens to be my favorite play of the night. His price is very cheap on DK and affordable on both FD and DS. Tonight’s game fits his style of play perfectly and he is one of those players that can put up fantasy points in a number of different ways. Don’t be surprised to see him get a few blocks and a few steals to add to his already impressive stat line. I’m predicting a 40 FP performance from the talented rookie.

Nikola Vucevic – Vucevic will likely be one of the most popular fantasy plays at Center tonight and for good reason. The Sixers are a bad rebounding team and own the league’s worst defense. Vucevic should have no problems posting a monster double-double in this one.

Tobias Harris – Harris is in a great spot tonight and I expect him to be a little under-owned after his subpar performance the other night against the Wizards. Harris is at his best when he is in the open floor and typically games against the Sixers are only played in the open court. I’m expecting a huge bounce back game from Tobias.

Philadelphia

The Sixers have all but given up on the season and at this points are just trying to develop their players. That means that we will continue to see major minutes from their core of young players. The Sixers have a very favorable matchup tonight against the Magic who are giving up 102 points per game to their opponents. The Magic have defended the Center position well, but have struggled against the other 4 positions.

There are quite a few options on the Sixers tonight. With Tony Wroten in the starting lineup, his value really takes a spike upwards. He’s also a player that is at his best in the open floor and he offers great value on most sites. He may be a little too expensive on FD though. James Anderson is also a nice punt option across the industry, I’m expecting him to have a breakout game soon and it could very well come tonight against the Magic.

Thaddeus Young – Young’s price has shot up across the industry, but it’s better to have him at a high salary than to have him be 90% owned in leagues. He has been a monster with Turner and Hawes out of the lineup as he has posted at least 55 FP’s in back to back games. The most promising thing is that he was getting garbage time even when they were down 30 points. He should see close to 40 minutes regardless of the score tonight.

Michael Carter-Williams – MCW still has a lot of work that needs to be done on his game, but he’s going to get all the chances in the world to improve. He’s going to be the motor of this offense for the rest of the season and that’s a great place to be in considering the fact that the Sixers are averaging a league-leading 102 possessions per game. MCW’s price is about to go up and I think tonight is the night to buy low on MCW.

Atlanta at Boston

Vegas Line – Boston -3, 203 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Scott-Brand
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass

Atlanta

The Hawks will be playing on tired legs tonight. Not only are they going to be without Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon, and Pero Antic, but they are playing on the second half of a back to back that required the starters to all play huge minutes. While Elton Brand has been phenomenal considering his age, you have to think that these heavy minutes are going to catch up with him soon. I still think he offers value as a punt at PF tonight, but Mike Scott is much younger and is by far the better play in my eyes. Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver are in play as well, but are more site specific plays.

Shelvin Mack – Mack will likely get another start at SG tonight as the Hawks have opted to go with a smaller lineup in order to keep Mike Scott in his 6th man role off the bench. Mack is close to minimum salary across the industry and is coming off of a nice game last night. He should be a nice value play against the Celtics who are missing their best defender in Avery Bradley.

DeMarre Carroll – Carroll makes a very nice play tonight for the Hawks. With Millsap out, he has been starting at PF and he has played 34 minutes in each of his last 2 games. With Brand likely very tired, I expect Carroll to see an even bigger share of minutes tonight. I really like his value across the industry.

Boston

The Celtics have a very nice matchup tonight. Not only do the Hawks give up 101.6 points per game, not only are they ranked 16th or worse against all five positions this season, but they will also be playing on tired legs which often leads to bad defense. The Celtics are projected to score well over 100 points tonight which is much higher than their season average of only 95 points scored per game.

Jared Sullinger is still dealing with symptoms from a concussion. While there hasn’t been an update on his status yet today, players that have concussions are typically out for a while and I’d be surprised to see him back on the floor tonight. His absence would mean another start for Kris Humphries and a small fantasy boost to Brandon Bass. Jeff Green makes his typical appearance in the Grind Down. While I like the matchup, I think he is better served as a GPP option.

Rajon Rondo – Rondo is one of my favorite players to take, especially on efficiency sites because Rondo doesn’t take a whole lot of shots and he tends to keep his turnovers pretty low. I love his matchup tonight against this tired defense and think that he will have another all around solid game. Rondo has a great track record against the Hawks and he’s really played well at home this season. All signs point to a big game from Rondo.

Golden State at Chicago

Vegas Line – Golden State -3, 186 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-O’Neal
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Snell-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Golden State

If you ever see the Warriors in a game with a total of only 186 points, something should register in your mind that something isn’t right. The low total says a lot more about the Bulls defense and slow pace of play than anything else. Let me throw a few stats out there. The Bulls are only averaging 93 possessions per game, they are only giving up 92.5 points per game, and they are ranked 8th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.

The Warriors are hoping to have David Lee back tonight, but I’m likely going to be avoiding all of the Warriors’ players tonight regardless. If Lee has to sit, Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green would see a small fantasy boost, but it won’t be enough for me to roster them tonight.

Chicago

It’s funny how everything is relative. While a total of 186 points is extremely low for a Warriors game, it’s actually pretty high for a Bulls game. The Bulls actually have a pretty decent matchup tonight against the uptempo Warriors. Jimmy Butler is questionable for tonight’s game, if he has to sit out again, Tony Snell would draw the start and Mike Dunleavy would also see a small fantasy boost. There aren’t any matchups that really stand out to me in this one, I don’t mind Joakim Noah, but I think Nikola Vucevic is a much better option tonight.

New Orleans at Dallas

Vegas Line – Dallas -7.5, 204.5 Over/Under
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

New Orleans

The Pelicans face a Mavericks team that is giving up 102.3 points per game to their opponents this season. This is a pretty solid matchup for the Pelicans, but as usual, there is really only one player that I want to target here. Eric Gordon does make an interesting play at SG though. He has a nice matchup against Monta Ellis and he offers nice upside. His price on DS and SS is very cheap and he could pay off his value and more tonight in an uptempo game. The rest of the starters should be avoided except for the one and only BROW.

Anthony Davis – Davis has faced this Mavericks team two times this season and he has played well in both matchups. In those two games, he is averaging 24 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks, an assist, and a steal. That equates to an average of around 47 FP’s. He has been very consistent over his past few games and I think he continues that solid play tonight. I have Griffin ranked slightly ahead of Davis tonight, but he is a close 2nd.

Dallas

The Mavericks have a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Pelicans. The Pelicans are giving up 101 points per game this season and have not been great defensively in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Pelicans have defended SG’s and SF’s well though so I suggest avoiding both Monta Ellis and Shawn Marion. Gordon and Aminu have held their opponents in check this season. Samuel Dalmebert is an average punt option at best, I think you are better served saving some money and taking a chance on Steven Adams from the Thunder.

Dirk Nowitzki – It’s not typical with veterans, but Dirk is actually averaging a full 5 fantasy points more at home this season than he is on the road. He has the home splits in his favor as well as some great numbers in the two first meetings against the Pelicans. Dirk has averaged 28 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in those two games. Dirk makes a solid cash game play tonight.

Jose Calderon – Calderon seems to be out of his mini-slump. He’s averaged 25 FP’s per game over his last 3 and has a solid matchup tonight against Roberts and the Pelicans who are ranked 20th against PG’s this season. The good news is that his slump caused his price to come down on most fantasy sites so it’s a nice time to buy low on the veteran.

L.A.Lakers at Memphis

Vegas Line – Memphis -11.5, 198 Over/Under
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Bazemore-Kaman
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers are a dumpster fire right now. While they might not be as bad as the Sixers, they are doing their best to compete with them. I’m actually a little surprised to that they are only 11.5 point underdogs tonight. If I were a betting man, I would be very tempted to take the Grizzlies in this one. The Lakers have been one of the worst road teams in the league and are playing the second half of a back to back after getting crushed by the Pacers last night.

The Lakers rotation is pretty tough to predict at this point. They not only have injured players that are constantly making appearances, but they also have a couple of new pieces that D’Antoni is giving big minutes to. At this point, the only Lakers’ player worth rostering is Kent Bazemore. He’s averaging over 30 minutes per game over his last 3 and has averaged 25 FP’s per game during that stretch.

Memphis

The Grizzlies are in a very similar position to the one that the Pacers were in last night. This game has blowout written all over it, but if the starter’s can cover their value in 3 quarters of play, they may be worth a look tonight. The Lakers are giving up 106.2 points per game this season and are ranked 27th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Marc Gasol makes a nice play tonight as he will battle his older brother. Of the two, Marc is by far the better defender and he should get the best of his brother in this one. Mike Conley is also in play, but there are a lot of good PG options out there tonight and I haven’t found Conley on any of my cash game lineups.

Zach Randolph – It’s been a while since I’ve recommended taking Randolph. With Gasol back in the lineup, he isn’t asked to do as much offensively and Gasol also seems to affect his rebounding totals. That said, tonight Z-Bo is in a terrific spot. The Lakers have given up more FP’s than any other team to opposing PF’s and he will be matched up against the likes of Bazemore, Johnson, and Hill.