NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 15th - Page 2
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Sacramento at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Sacramento
This is one of those games that has a lot of risk but a lot of reward as well. Both of these teams play at an extremely fast pace, but the Wolves are 10 point favorites and the Kings are coming off of a blowout loss to the Pacers last night. If the game stays close, there will be great fantasy options on both teams. My gut reaction is to avoid the blowout factor here and expect the Kings to stay within striking distance.
- Isaiah Thomas – Thomas had an awful performance last night and he will be glad that they have another game tonight so he can get back at it. I expect him to bounce back nicely tonight against Rubio and the Wolves who have not defended the PG position well this season. I’m calling for a 20 point, 10 assist game from IT2.
- Rudy Gay – Gay is in a nice position tonight. The Wolves have not been great against SF’s this season and he is at his best in uptempo games. I think he will cause some havoc on defense early and that will lead to some easy buckets. Like the value for him tonight at SF.
Minnesota
The Wolves have a great matchup tonight, but I do have to mention that there is the risk of a blowout. The Kings are ranked in the bottom 12 at defending PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. The only play that I will likely be avoiding tonight is Nikola Pekovic. He could get into foul trouble against Cousins. The rest of the Wolves are in play though.
- Ricky Rubio – Love should be considered the top overall option tonight, but that doesn’t mean that you have to pay up for him. Dollar for dollar, I think Rubio makes a better play. The Kings have really strugged to defend PG’s and Rubio can fill up the stat sheet like nobody’s business.
- Kevin Martin – Martin is one of my sleepers tonight that will likely go under-owned across the board. His price is very affordable across the industry and he gets to match up with Thornton who doesn’t seem to know how to play defense. I think he tops 20 actual points tonight.
Houston at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – Houston -5, 205 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Smith
Houston
The Rockets travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in what should be a very fast paced game. Both of these teams average at least 95 possessions per game. The Pelicans have not been great defensively this season and there are a number of ways to go on the Rockets. One interesting thing to see is if the Pelicans will stick Aminu on Harden. I don’t think he will be able to stop Harden, but he should at least slow him down a bit.
- Dwight Howard – Neither Smith nor Ajinca worries me at all in this matchup. Dwight should have a huge advantage over both of them and I expect him to post some big numbers tonight. Dwight has been very streaky this season and he’s coming off of a 32 and 11 game against the Celtics.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are in a favorable position tonight. Tyreke Evans is expected to miss tonight’s game again which means Brian Roberts and Eric Gordon will continue to see major minutes in the backcourt. I like them both as value plays if their prices are cheap on the site that you are playing on. Al-Farouq Aminu also makes an interesting GPP play, he should continue to play big minutes and has had a few monster games this season.
- Anthony Davis – The Rockets haven’t been great defensively this season and they have specifically struggled to defend PF’s. The Rockets are giving up the 4th most FP’s to opposing PF’s this season and Davis should be in for a nice game. He’s the only player that averages close to double-digit FP’s from blocks and steals alone.
Utah at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Ginobili-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan
Utah
The Jazz will be without Gordon Hayward tonight. While that is good for Alec Burks fantasy value, that really hurts their chances of keeping this game close. The Spurs are 13.5 point favorites and have a history of blowing the Jazz out in San Antonio. I think Alec Burks is the only safe play here, his price is low enough that he should still be able to cover his value even in a blowout.
San Antonio
The Spurs are ailing right now, yet they are still 13.5 point favorites. That says a lot about Pop’s system and his ability to get the most out of his bench players. Danny Green will be out again tonight which boosts the fantasy value of Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, and Marco Belinelli. I will likely be using these 3 sparingly tonight, but I will be avoiding the pricey Duncan and Parker.
L.A.Lakers at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Gasol-Sacre
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are coming off of a tough loss against the Cavs last night and now have to get right back at it tonight against the Suns. The good news is that both of these teams are near the top of the league in pace of play. The bad news is that the Lakers have been awful on the road this season and are 11 point underdogs. I feel the same way about this game as I do the T-Wolves game. It’s a high risk, high reward type of game. I like both Jodie Meeks and Wesley Johnson as value plays here.
- Kendall Marshall – Marshall seems to get run regardless of the outcome of games. He is likely going to see 35+ minutes even if the Lakers get down big. That’s something that I like to see in a potential blowout. Marshall has really played well as the starting PG in this offense and I think he can top 30 FP’s again tonight.
Phoenix
The Suns are in a fantastic position tonight, but we do have to worry about a blowout. That said, with a total of 212 points for this game, the upside of these players outweighs the potential blowout. The Lakers are ranked in the bottom 4 against every position this season except for SF’s so we have quite a few choices here. I like Miles Plumlee and Channing Frye as GPP plays, but my favorite two players to target on the Suns are Dragic and Green.
- Goran Dragic – Dragic has incredible upside tonight against the Lakers. He is coming off of a great game against the Knicks and I am willing to pay up for him as long as Bledsoe is sidelined. With full control of this offense, Dragic is either going to score or get the assist on the majority of their possessions.
- Gerald Green – Green will likely be under-owned tonight after his dud offensively against the Knicks, but I think this is a terrific position for him. He’s playing at home, he has no one challenging him for minutes, and the matchup doesn’t get any better.
Cleveland at Portland
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Varejao
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Cleveland
The Cavs are playing in a back to back situation and have to take on a Blazers team that has been money at home all season long. That’s not a great recipe for success. I am a little concerned about a blowout here, but I think Kyrie Irving will bounce back well tonight. He had a huge game against the Blazers the first time these teams met this season. I also like Anderson Varejao, he is playing at an All-Star level and his price has yet to reflect that production.
Portland
As crazy as it sounds, I’m not very high on the Blazers as a team tonight. There is the potential for a blowout and the Cavs actually have a few solid defenders on their team. Deng, Thompson, and Varejao are all very good defenders. The only play that really stands out to me here is Damian Lillard. He played great in their first matchup and the Cavs have struggled to defend the PG position all season long.