NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-05 20:35:17

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

FanDuel has $120,000 on the line tonight in the $25 buy-in NBA Slam. $13,000 to first place so check out our FanDuel Review for more information about FD if you haven’t signed up already.

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Indiana at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 189 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Indiana

The Pacers are playing in the second half of a back to back after losing at home to the Warriors last night. The Pacers are also playing their 4th game in five nights which is why they are only favored by 5 points here. I don’t think fatigue will be a factor for most of the Pacers, but I will definitely be avoiding Roy Hibbert here. He struggles in back to back games and will be playing on very tired legs against a red hot Al Jefferson.

Even though the Bobcats have surrendered two 60 point games this season, they are still one of the most efficient defensive teams in the league. The Bobcats are holding their opponents to only 97.5 points per game which is ranked 5th in the NBA. Looking at their DvP rankings, the only position that they have consistently given up big fantasy performances to is the PG position. George Hill is always a tough player to target though because the offense doesn’t run through him. He is a decent punt, but I think there are better value plays on the board tonight. David West and Paul George are both outpriced for a less than favorable matchup.

Lance Stephenson – You can throw the DvP ranking against SG’s out the window for tonight’s contest because Gerald Henderson will be out of the lineup once again and the Bobcats will start Gary Neal. To say that is a dropoff defensively is a huge understatement. Stephenson is one of the best rebounding guards in the NBA and he should be able to use his height and size advantage over Neal on both ends of the floor.

Charlotte

The Bobcats are looking to snap their 3-game losing streak, but to do it, they have to get by the league’s best defense. The Pacers are holding their opponents to 91.3 points per game this season. If that wasn’t enough, the Pacers are extremely stingy when it comes to fantasy points allowed as they are ranked 6th or better against all five positions on the floor. Maybe the Bobcats can have an edge in rebounding? That doesn’t look promising either as the Pacers are the 2nd best rebounding team in the NBA. Gerald Henderson will miss tonight’s game, but I’m not sure how much upside Gary Neal has against a tough Pacers defense. He makes a decent punt on some sites, but I would avoid him on efficiency based sites.

With a full slate of games, you don’t need to target any of the Bobcats players in cash games tonight. Al Jefferson is probably the only player that I will have any exposure to, but it will likely only be in GPP’s and qualifiers. He should be able to find some success down low against a tired Roy Hibbert. Jefferson is shooting over 60% from the field in his last two games and has averaged over 50 FP’s in those games.

Houston at Orlando

Vegas Line – Houston -6.5, 207 Over/Under
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Harkless-Harris-Vucevic

Houston

The Rockets picked up a huge win against the Heat last night and now travel to Orlando to take on the struggling Magic. The good news in this matchup is that this game is being played in Orlando. The total is set at 207 points and the Rockets are only favored by 7 points so we can expect a high scoring game that remains fairly close throughout. The Magic have picked up their interior defense with Vucevic in the lineup. They are ranked 6th and 7th against PF’s and Centers over the last 15 days.

While Dwight Howard has a tough matchup, you have to love the revenge factor in this one. He will certainly have some added motivation as his departure from Orlando wasn’t exactly friendly on either side. Terrence Jones has picked up his play, he’s scored 37 or more FP’s in back to back games. He makes a great play on DK tonight where he is only $5,100. Chandler Parsons is also worth consideration here, however with Arron Afflalo back in the lineup, it’s not a great matchup for him.

James Harden – Harden has been on an absolute tear since the All-Star Break. In 7 games since the break, he has averaged 26 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, and 2 steals per game. The Magic will likely give Harden a mix of looks tonight defensively, but he can score in so many ways that I don’t see them slowing him down. He is the top SG play tonight.

Orlando

The Magic may be without Jameer Nelson tonight. He missed their last game with an illness and he missed this morning’s shootaround. If he has to sit out, my guess is that they would slide Victor Oladipo over to the PG spot and let Arron Afflalo start at SG as he is making his return to the lineup tonight. This is a favorable matchup for the Magic. The Rockets play at an above average pace (98 possessions per game) and have given up an average of 101.9 points per game this season. The Rockets are also coming off of a big win and this has the feeling of a letdown game for them, at least on the defensive end.

The one player that I will be avoiding tonight is Nikola Vucevic. He has been on fire recently, but has an extremely tough matchup against Dwight who has given up the 3rd fewest FP’s to opposing Centers over the last 15 days. Arron Afflalo makes a nice play here. He shouldn’t have any kind of minutes restriction and should pick up right where he left off.

Victor Oladipo – One of my favorite things to do in DFS is to target players in solid matchups that I think will be under-owned. Oladipo has turned in two subpar performances in a row and will likely be off of most DFS player’s radar tonight. I’m expecting a big game from him tonight though and he would see a huge boost if he ends up getting the start at PG. His value goes way up when he starts at the point.

Utah at Washington

Vegas Line – Washington -7.5, 198.5 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Utah

The Jazz are coming off of an embarrassing blowout loss to the Bucks and now have to face a Wizards team that is trending upwards. The Jazz are a tough team to target from a DFS standpoint because they have a lot of players that contribute offensively and Coach Corbin has very inconsistent rotations. He tends to stick with what is working and that can often lead to limited minutes from his starters. The Jazz have been one of the worst road teams this season and I have a hard time seeing them being competitive tonight.

If you look at the DvP rankings of the Wizards, they have been very solid. Over the last 15 days, they are ranked 10th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. I’m not seeing much fantasy upside for any of the Jazz players tonight.

Washington

The Wizards face a Jazz team that has really struggled defensively over the past month or so. The Jazz are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league as they are ranked in the bottom third in terms of total rebounding percentage. The downside with their matchup is that the Jazz are one of the slowest paced teams in the league as they are only averaging 93 possessions per game.

I look at this as a pretty average matchup for the Wizards. Marcin Gortat is averaging well over 35 FP’s per game with Nene out of the lineup, but his price is starting to come up to an unplayable level. Trevor Ariza and Bradley Beal are pretty average fantasy options tonight as Jefferson and Hayward are both pretty capable defenders.

John Wall – Wall is always in play when he is at home. He is averaging 21 points, 9 assists, and 4 rebounds at home this season which equates to well over 40 FP’s per game. It also doesn’t hurt that Wall has topped 39 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games. He has a nice matchup against the inexperience Burke and should be targeted in all leagues tonight.

Trevor Booker – Booker may not be the best offensive player in the game, but he has a high motor and is a great rebounder. The Jazz are not a great rebounding team and as long as Booker sees close to 30 minutes of playing time, I think he can grab double-digit rebounds. He is still minimum salary on FD and very cheap on both DS and DK. He’s one of the better punt plays tonight.

Golden State at Boston

Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 201 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bayless-Green-Sullinger-Bass

Golden State

The Warriors are one of many teams that are playing in the second half of a back to back tonight. The Warriors picked up a very tough win in Indiana last night on a game winning jumper from Klay Thompson. Tonight’s game against the Celtics is expected to be fairly high scoring, but the total is set at 201 points and that’s fairly low for a Warriors game.

The Celtics have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor. Over the last 15 days, they are ranked 7th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s, PF’s, and Centers. The Celtics play at an average pace and are ranked in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game. This isn’t the best matchup for Stephen Curry, but I do like his price on FD where he is only $9,200.

Andrew Bogut – Even though the C’s have defended Centers well in the last few games, they are still under-sized down low and an average rebounding team. Bogut’s price around the industry is depressed and Bogut has actually played pretty well in back to back games this season. He actually averages more points and rebounds per game in back to back situations than his season averages.

Boston

The Warriors used to be the Sixers of the NBA. Everyone used to be in play when a team was facing the Warriors, but the addition of Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut into the lineup has really changed things around. The Warriors are now ranked in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game as well as defensive efficiency. Over the last 15 days, the Warriors are ranked 6th or better in terms of fantasy points given up to PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s.

Rajon Rondo could be in play here, but Curry has really stepped up his play on the defensive end of floor. Jerryd Bayless should see some major playing time with both Wallace and Bradley on the shelf, but will be matched up against Andre Iguodala and that’s not a matchup that I will be targeting anytime soon. For the most part, I think you are safe avoiding the Celtics tonight.

Memphis at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -1.5, 189 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett

Memphis

This game will be a battle of two of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Grizzlies only average 92 possessions per game and the Nets only average 94 possessions per game. Right off the bat, that should trigger your gag reflex. The total of this game is set at 189 points which actually seems a bit high to me. Both of these teams prefer to play in the half court and that’s exactly the type of game that I think we will see tonight.

The Nets are ranked 18th or better against all five positions over the last 15 days and I’m not sure that I want to target any of the Grizzlies in a very slow paced game. The one player that I may have some exposure to is Marc Gasol. He has shot over 50% in his last 4 games and is averaging over 35 FP’s in that stretch. Plus, he won’t have to deal with Kevin Garnett as KG will sit out tonight’s game due to recurring back spasms.

Brooklyn

If you have read my Grind Down before, you know that I like to avoid all players against 3 teams: the Bulls, the Pacers, and the Grizzlies. The Nets have the unfortunate task of facing this tough Grizzlies’ defense tonight. I’ve already mentioned that the Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, but they are also very solid defensively. They are only giving up 95.1 points per game, they are ranked 14th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed, and they are the 6th best rebounding team in the league. All of these stats should make your decision to avoid the Nets an easy one.