NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 18th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – Wednesday, 9:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 222.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 222.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 107.0 Team Proj. 115.5
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19 Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6 Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5


Oklahoma City Thunder

Series Record: 1-0

The Thunder shocked everyone with a win over the Warriors in Game 1. They now have more wins in San Antonio and in Golden State than every other team in the NBA does combined this season. They picked up their split, but they would love nothing more than to head back to Oklahoma City with a two-game lead. The Thunder are sizable underdogs in Game 2 though, as the Warriors are favored by 8.5 points. I would like to point out the fact that the Thunder didn’t give in to the small ball approach of the Warriors in Game 1. Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams, and Enes Kanter all played big minutes, which bodes well for their fantasy value the rest of the series.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,100
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.39 FP/Min: 1.47
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.4 36.7 2.3 39.2 4.8
FPPG (FD) 48.8 51.0 2.2 56.2 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 30.6 2.2 30.9 2.6

Despite only scoring three actual points in the first half, Westbrook turned it on late in the game and finished with 63 fantasy points. That outing is a perfect example of the type of upside that he has even when his shot isn’t falling. Westbrook remains an elite play for Game 2, as there doesn’t appear to be anyone on the Warriors that can stop him off the dribble, especially in transition. Rather than deciding between Westbrook and Curry, I am going to do everything I can to get both of them in my lineup once again.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.99 FP/Min: 1.23
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.8 40.2 4.4 43.6 7.8
FPPG (FD) 46.4 39.9 -6.6 44.3 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 26.5 0.2 26.9 0.6

Durant was ice cold in the fourth quarter, but he was nails when it mattered most. He hit a huge jump shot to put the Thunder up five with less than a minute to play. He finished Game 1 with 45.5 fantasy points and his price came down a few hundred dollars on FanDuel. If he shoots a little better from the floor in Game 2, he should be able to put together a better fantasy outing than he did in Game 1. Given the game environment (compared to the Cavaliers’ series), I slightly prefer Durant over LeBron.

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $5,300
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.72 FP/Min: 0.83
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.3 0.2 33.1 1.0
FPPG (FD) 25.4 23.3 -2.0 21.6 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 11.0 -3.9 10.5 -4.4

I mentioned before Game 1 that I thought this series would help Ibaka get going again, after he really struggled in the six games against the Spurs. Ibaka played well in the first game against the Warriors, scoring 27 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. As long as he is going to continue to see 35 minutes or so, he will remain an elite play at this price point.

Steven Adams
steven-adams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $5,900
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.79 FP/Min: 0.65
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.2 32.5 7.3 37.3 12.1
FPPG (FD) 19.3 25.6 6.3 31.6 12.3
TO-Adj. Usage 10.4 10.0 -0.5 11.2 0.7

The biggest takeaway from Game 1 is that the Thunder stuck to their game plan. They beat the Warriors up on the inside with Ibaka, Kanter, and Adams. The man with the great mustache played 37 minutes and score 33 fantasy points. He is considerably cheaper than Bismack Biyombo and he provides a similar floor and a similar ceiling. As long as he gets big minutes, he will have a very productive series.

Secondary Plays

Dion Waiters
dion-waiters-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,800 Salary: $4,000
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.63 FP/Min: 0.72
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.6 25.1 -2.5 24.7 -2.9
FPPG (FD) 16.7 15.8 -1.0 14.4 -2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 13.7 -1.5 11.6 -3.6

Waiters was another player that I mentioned to keep your eye on during this series. The Spurs series was more about plays on the defensive end of the floor, but now the Thunder need all of the scoring that they can get. He played well in Game 1, scoring 17 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. The biggest reason to roster Waiters is for the cap savings that will allow you to spend up on the studs.

Golden State Warriors

Series Record: 0-1

The Warriors took a lot of ill-advised shots in the fourth quarter of Game 1, although if the shots would have went in then we would have praised them for their ability to get shots up quickly. At the end of the day, it was just a rare bad outing from the Warriors offensively. Look for them to bounce back in a big way in Game 2. I fully expect them to even the series up before it shifts to Oklahoma City for Game 3. The Warriors are 8.5-point favorites in this game with the highest team total on the board. If there was ever a time to load up on Golden State, this would be it.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,700
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.35 FP/Min: 1.73
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.2 30.2 -4.0 37.6 3.4
FPPG (FD) 47.9 40.7 -7.2 52.0 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 28.8 1.0 29.7 1.8

For whatever reason, the Warriors went away from Curry in the fourth quarter until it was too late. I’m not sure if we should credit the Thunder defense or if the Warriors just didn’t do a good enough job of getting him open. Either way, expect that to change in Game 2. The two-time MVP is my favorite play overall in this slate. Even with his relatively quiet fourth quarter, he still finished with 47.5 fantasy points in Game 1.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,800
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.02 FP/Min: 0.95
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.3 36.4 3.1 38.8 5.5
FPPG (FD) 30.9 37.1 6.2 37.2 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.1 1.8 21.4 -0.9

The Warriors went to Thompson early and often in Game 1. While that is promising, I don’t expect him to average more shot attempts than Stephen Curry when the series is all said and done. I still like Thompson as an elite play in this game, but there could be a time or two where we may want to look to fade him in this series. I will likely wait to do that until the series shifts to Oklahoma City.

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,900
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.20 FP/Min: 1.15
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.7 37.8 3.1 40.1 5.4
FPPG (FD) 39.1 45.3 6.2 44.9 5.8
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 18.8 2.8 17.3 1.3

Green is the one star fantasy option that is going to get overlooked in this round of the playoffs. With Curry, Westbrook, James, and Durant all in the mix, it’s tough to pay over $9,000 for Green when you can just spend a bit more to get one of the four other studs. Green is still worth a look in tournaments though, as we know he has 50+ fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,500 Salary: $4,100
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.69 FP/Min: 0.67
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 26.6 29.9 3.3 33.3 6.7
FPPG (FD) 18.5 20.7 2.2 17.7 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 10.9 0.2 7.2 -3.5

Iguodala has been a model of inconsistency so far in the playoffs. In his last five games, he has scored 31, 13, 12, 17, and 23 fantasy points. The good news is that he played 33 minutes in Game 1, including crunch time down the stretch. If he sees 30+ minutes per game, he will have a few big outings in this series that end up being a big difference maker in DFS. The problem is that he will also have a few bad outings. He has a higher ceiling than Barnes, but he may have a lower floor.

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,300 Salary: $4,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.57 FP/Min: 0.69
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.9 31.7 0.8 32.6 1.7
FPPG (FD) 21.0 18.0 -3.0 17.6 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 12.6 -1.3 11.6 -2.3

Barnes has also struggled with consistency in the postseason. He has struggled with his shot, but he did manage to knock down a couple of threes in Game 1. Barnes isn’t my favorite play ever, but he is cheap and he should see 30+ minutes in what will be the highest scoring game in the slate. I slightly prefer Barnes over both DeMarre Carroll and Andre Iguodala in cash games, but we are splitting hairs between those three.


Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – Thursday, 8:30 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers
torontonba Vegas Total 198.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 105.3
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1 Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7
Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11 Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4


Toronto Raptors

Series Record: 0-1

The Raptors were demolished in Game 1 against the Cavaliers. Hopefully, they will be able to bounce back in Game 2, or this could be a very short series. We have seen teams come back after getting blown out in Game 1 time and time again (OKC vs. San Antonio, Portland vs. Golden State), so I’ll trust the Vegas line heading into Game 2. The Raptors are listed as 12.5-point underdogs with by far the lowest team total on the board. I have a difficult time listing any of their players as elite fantasy options, but there are some viable secondary plays here. Jonas Valanciunas is not expected to play in this game, which should result in another start for Bismack Biyombo.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,600
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.88 FP/Min: 1.06
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 37.0 39.0 2.0 36.7 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 38.5 34.1 -4.4 40.3 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.4 -0.5 28.3 5.5

Lowry really struggled in Game 1, mustering up only 16 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. While I expect a much better outing from the Raptors’ point guard in Game 2, he is still a secondary play at best. With Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry in such great spots, I will not be looking to Lowry in cash games. The one plus for Lowry is that the Cavaliers were ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.

Bismack Biyombo
bismack-biyombo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,200
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.84 FP/Min: 0.85
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 22.0 23.2 1.2 34.9 12.9
FPPG (FD) 18.4 19.4 1.0 28.4 10.0
TO-Adj. Usage 9.1 9.1 0.0 10.2 1.1

Biyombo actually had a decent outing in Game 1. He didn’t play a full complement of minutes thanks to the blowout, but he still managed to score 19 fantasy points. With Jonas Valanciunas expected to miss Game 2, Biyombo should continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle. Steven Adams is the safer play of the two, but Biyombo is an interesting pivot in tournaments.

Patrick Patterson
patrick-patterson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,200 Salary: $4,600
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.52 FP/Min: 0.56
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.6 29.2 3.6 32.7 7.1
FPPG (FD) 15.3 15.2 -0.1 21.3 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 11.0 0.1 11.9 1.0

If Jonas Valanciunas is out again and if the Raptors can keep the game within striking distance, Patterson could see upwards of 40 minutes in Game 2. He actually played pretty well in Game 1, finishing with eight points, two rebounds, and four assists in only 28 minutes of action. Patterson is a viable punt play at power forward in both cash games and tournaments.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Series Record: 1-0

The Cavaliers showed no rust in the first game of the series, beating the Raptors by 31 points. If Game 1 was any indication of how the rest of the series is going to go, it’s not going to be pretty. With limited options in these two game slate, my ultimate goal is to get as much exposure to the Warriors/Thunder series as possible, picking my spots with the Cavaliers and Raptors. Cleveland is listed as an 12.5-point favorite with an implied team total of 105.3 points. The main issue here isn’t the matchup, it’s the potential blowout.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,800
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.23 FP/Min: 1.29
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.6 37.6 2.0 35.0 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 45.0 46.2 1.3 45.6 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 24.8 -2.6 25.8 -1.6

James was well on his way to another 50 fantasy point outing in Game 1, but the Cavaliers pulled him early once they got up by 30. James still finished with 39 fantasy points in only 28 minutes of action. We should still be concerned about a potential blowout in Game 2, but James has 40+ minute upside if Toronto is able to keep the game within striking distance.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,400
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.05 FP/Min: 1.07
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 33.5 2.0 31.4 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 32.4 35.3 2.9 37.4 5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 22.2 2.3 24.6 4.6

Love was a bit of a disappointment in Game 1, finishing with only 23 fantasy points. At his price point, he fell way short of salary expectations. We can’t let one game cloud our judgment though, as Love is still averaging over 35 fantasy points per game in the postseason. I still like him slightly more then Draymond Green in a points per dollar sense, but it may not be the worst idea to punt the power forward position with Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $8,200
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.05 FP/Min: 0.95
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 35.6 4.1 37.5 6.0
FPPG (FD) 30.8 37.3 6.5 37.3 6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 25.3 -0.5 22.7 -3.1

Irving outplayed Lowry on both ends of the floor in Game 1. He put up 43 fantasy points in only 30 minutes of action. I love his price of $7,100 on FanDuel, but if you roster Irving, that means that you are going to have to fade either Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry. Given the other options at his position, Irving is more of a secondary play.

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,900 Salary: $5,400
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.60 FP/Min: 0.65
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.7 34.1 3.4 32.8 2.1
FPPG (FD) 20.3 20.6 0.3 13.4 -7.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 11.1 -4.9 6.9 -9.1

Smith is one of the best values at shooting guard. The only concern is his decreased usage rate in the postseason. With the big three in Cleveland taking more shots, there haven’t been as many to go around for the role players. Smith still offers nice upside for his price though, and the savings at the position will allow you to spend up at point guard and/or small forward.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,900 Salary: $5,100
Position: C Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.62 FP/Min: 0.77
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.7 28.7 1.0 28.4 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.3 17.8 -3.5 19.5 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 8.3 -1.6 10.4 0.5

Thompson didn’t have a great first quarter, but he finished Game 1 with 14 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action. He should average 30+ minutes per game in this series and I expect his ownership to be massively deflated in this slate. This could be a great time to get on Thompson, especially in tournaments.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious