NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – Wednesday 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -7.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
| Atlanta Hawks | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 95.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Opp. Season | 8 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 22 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 11 | Last 3 Weeks | 24 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 23 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 48-34 — Road: 21-20
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.0 (3 of 4)
The Hawks made a nice run in the second half of Game 1. While they eventually fell short, they did prove that they can compete with the Cavaliers in this series. The biggest issue that I see with Atlanta is that they don’t have a go-to scorer in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers can lean on any of their three superstars with the game on the line. The Hawks come into Game 2 as 7.5-point underdogs with their implied team total set at 95 points. Kyle Korver is an interesting GPP play, but he isn’t going to get as many open looks as he did in the first round series against the Celtics.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Paul Millsap | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $8,800 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.03 | FP/Min: | 1.09 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.7 | 36.8 | 4.1 | 34.7 | 2.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 37.5 | 37.7 | 0.3 | 38.2 | 0.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 18.6 | -1.3 | 19.2 | -0.7 |
Millsap had himself a game on Monday night. He finished with 17 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals. He has a decent track record against the Cavaliers in the last two seasons, even though they have historically been tough on opposing frontcourts. If the Hawks are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to need that same Millsap to show up time and time again.
| Dennis Schroder | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,900 | Salary: | $3,900 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.88 | FP/Min: | 1.09 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 20.3 | 20.0 | -0.3 | 21.9 | 1.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.4 | 17.5 | -2.9 | 24.2 | 3.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 23.8 | 25.0 | 1.2 | 26.4 | 2.5 |
I am late to the Schroder party and I am still kicking myself for it. His minutes were trending in the right direction near the end of the Celtics’ series and we know that the Cavaliers are susceptible to point guards. His minutes are exactly guaranteed each game, but you have to like the upside that he provides at this price point. He played 29 minutes and scored 35 fantasy points in Game 1. Schroder is a strong play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
| Al Horford | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $7,400 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.01 | FP/Min: | 1.03 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.1 | 33.1 | 1.0 | 30.1 | -2.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.3 | 33.4 | 1.1 | 27.8 | -4.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.9 | 15.9 | -2.0 | 16.6 | -1.3 |
Horford couldn’t get anything going in the first half of Game 1, but he finished with a respectable 28 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. I’m not going to be looking his way in cash games (Tristan Thompson is the obvious play on FD, Jonas Valanciunas is the obvious play on DK), but I don’t mind throwing Horford in a tournament lineup or two.
| Kent Bazemore | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $6,300 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.92 | FP/Min: | 0.78 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27.8 | 32.7 | 4.9 | 30.3 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.1 | 30.1 | 7.0 | 29.3 | 6.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.1 | 19.0 | 2.9 | 20.0 | 3.9 |
Bazemore was a big reason why the Hawks were able to keep Game 1 close. He finished with 36 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. If you look at the table above, his minutes, fantasy production, and usage rate are all way up in the postseason. He is averaging just over 30 fantasy points per game so far in the playoffs.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 57-25 — Home: 33-8
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (1 of 4)
The Cavaliers gave their fans a scare in Game 1, but they eventually took care of business with a 104-93 victory over the Hawks. They are listed as 7.5-point favorites tonight with their implied team total set at 102.5 points. They have the highest team projection of the four teams in this slate. All five starters are in play here, as they technically have the most favorable matchup in this two-game slate.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| LeBron James | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,600 | Salary: | $11,000 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.15 | FP/Min: | 1.18 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.6 | 41.1 | 5.5 | 41.6 | 6.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 45.0 | 47.3 | 2.3 | 47.8 | 2.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 23.6 | -3.8 | 24.7 | -2.6 |
James may have a slightly lower usage rate so far this postseason, but he is playing over 40 minutes per game. The extended playing time more than makes up for a slightly lower usage rate. He is the top play overall and he is a tough fade in cash games. The Hawks really don’t have an answer for him and we know that he can contribute in all areas of the stat sheet.
| Kevin Love | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $8,100 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.98 | FP/Min: | 0.98 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 31.5 | 36.2 | 4.7 | 37.0 | 5.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.4 | 35.6 | 3.2 | 34.4 | 2.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 21.1 | 1.2 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
Love only averaged 31.5 minutes per game in the regular season, but that is up to 36.2 in the playoffs. He has actually seen a usage boost as well, which has resulted in an average of 35.6 fantasy points per contest. The Hawks have been mediocre against power forwards this season and they have the fifth worst rebounding differential. While I see them both as elite plays, Love is slightly a better value than Millsap.
| Tristan Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $4,500 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.57 | FP/Min: | 0.72 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27.7 | 30.8 | 3.1 | 36.7 | 9.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.3 | 17.4 | -3.9 | 24.2 | 2.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.9 | 6.4 | -3.5 | 8.2 | -1.7 |
Before Game 1, I mentioned that this was going to be a big series for Thompson. He is at his best when teams 1. play big and 2. don’t rebound the ball well. Both of those check out for Thompson in this series. He had a monster Game 1, finishing with 32 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action. Thompson is going to be a staple in my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
| Kyrie Irving | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $8,300 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.04 | FP/Min: | 0.91 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 31.5 | 37.1 | 5.6 | 38.1 | 6.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.8 | 38.7 | 8.0 | 36.8 | 6.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.7 | 27.0 | 1.2 | 25.8 | 0.0 |
Irving is a borderline elite play tonight, but he is my fourth favorite target on the Cavaliers. With Dennis Schroder being such a good value play, we don’t have to force Irving into our lineups. He played well in Game 1, scoring 38 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action. Once again, he is a borderline elite play in Game 2. However, I don’t see him as a must play, especially if you are already targeting James, Love, and Thompson.
| J.R. Smith | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $5,200 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.64 | FP/Min: | 0.62 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.7 | 36.0 | 5.3 | 36.8 | 6.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.3 | 23.1 | 2.8 | 22.4 | 2.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 11.9 | -4.1 | 10.3 | -5.7 |
Smith is in the same boat as Irving. While he is my favorite value at shooting guard, he is my fifth favorite target on the Cavaliers. I certainly don’t mind stacking Cleveland in this game, but FanDuel only allows you to roster four players from the same team. Smith played well in Game 1, finishing with 25 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action.
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors – Thursday 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4.5, 188.5 Over/Under
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Whiteside
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Carroll-Valanciunas
| Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188.5 |  | Vegas Total | 188.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 95.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Hassan Whiteside | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | DeMarre Carroll | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | Opp. Season | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 8 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 26 | |
Miami Heat
Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 92.0 (4 of 4)
The Heat picked up a big win in overtime in Game 1 on Wednesday night. They have stolen homecourt advantage from the Raptors and it will be interesting to see if they go for the jugular or if they are content to go back to Miami with the split. Obviously, they want to win Game 2, but sometimes the natural reaction is to have a letdown after accomplishing the goal of getting a split. The Heat are listed as 4.5-point underdogs with their implied team total of 92 points. While that’s not terribly low, it is the lowest projection of the four teams in this slate. Hassan Whiteside is an interesting GPP play, but he was greatly outplayed by Jonas Valanciunas in Game 1.
- Injury Watch:
Chris Bosh (Out)
Elite Plays
| Dwyane Wade | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $8,000 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.10 | FP/Min: | 1.04 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.5 | 31.9 | 1.4 | 33.0 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 35.2 | 3.5 | 35.8 | 4.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.8 | 26.5 | -0.3 | 24.0 | -2.8 |
Wade’s total stat line was inflated by the fact that Game 1 went into overtime, but he finished with 44 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. He should see 32-35 minutes per game moving forward, which is a sizable boost over his season average. Wade’s production has gone way up in the postseason and the Heat will look to lean on him on the road similar to the way they did against the Hornets in the first round.
| Luol Deng | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,900 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.85 | FP/Min: | 0.76 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.4 | 34.5 | 2.1 | 34.2 | 1.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.2 | 29.4 | 5.3 | 27.4 | 3.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.0 | 16.6 | 1.6 | 14.2 | -0.8 |
Deng’s Game 1 production was hindered by his five turnovers. He otherwise played pretty well, scoring 22 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. I expect him to be more involved offensively in the rest of the series and we can expect him to play around 35 minutes per game. He is a nice pivot at power forward if you want to get away from the more expensive players in Millsap and Love.
Secondary Plays
| Goran Dragic | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,000 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.87 | FP/Min: | 0.94 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.8 | 31.2 | -1.6 | 35.0 | 2.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.3 | 27.1 | -0.2 | 31.9 | 4.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 21.9 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 5.1 |
Dragic outplayed Lowry in Game 1, scoring 33 fantasy points in 41 minutes of action. He has been a steady source of fantasy production so far this postseason, averaging just over 27 fantasy points per game. He’s not my favorite play at point guard, but he is certainly worth a look if you want a safe pick for cash games.
| Joe Johnson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $4,800 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.60 | FP/Min: | 0.69 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.4 | 34.7 | 1.3 | 37.2 | 3.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.2 | 20.8 | -1.4 | 22.2 | 0.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.6 | 13.8 | -1.7 | 15.8 | 0.2 |
I landed on Johnson the other night because he fit the price that I had left at small forward. I didn’t see him as a bad play, but he doesn’t exactly have the type of consistency that I like to see from my players in cash games. Luckily, he came through with 30 fantasy points. Johnson still offers nice value tonight, but he is just as likely to score 15 fantasy points as he is 25 fantasy points.
Toronto Raptors
Record: 56-26 — Home: 32-9
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.5 (2 of 4)
The Raptors managed to complete a terrific fourth quarter comeback in Game 1 to force overtime against the Heat. However, even with all the momentum on their side, they were unable to pick up the win. They now find themselves in what is essentially a must-win Game 2. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 96.5 points. With their backs against the wall, I expect them to play well here, but they will need a better outing from their point guard.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| DeMar DeRozan | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,100 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.77 | FP/Min: | 0.98 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.9 | 36.9 | 1.0 | 39.8 | 3.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.3 | 28.3 | -7.0 | 31.5 | -3.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.0 | 26.1 | 0.0 | 26.4 | 0.4 |
DeRozan has a nice track record against the Heat. He has been the go-to scorer in the Raptors’ offense in the postseason, especially since Kyle Lowry has struggled so bad. DeRozan played 42 minutes in Game 1, finishing with 35 fantasy points. This is sort of a weird two-game slate, but it makes sense to pay up at shooting guard with a lack of options in the value section.
| Jonas Valanciunas | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $6,600 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.21 | FP/Min: | 1.03 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.9 | 28.1 | 2.2 | 31.8 | 5.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.9 | 33.9 | 7.1 | 38.4 | 11.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.0 | 19.4 | 2.4 | 18.0 | 0.9 |
I was off of Valanciunas on Tuesday and for that I apologize. I really wasn’t expecting him to have that much success against Hassan Whiteside, who is known as one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. This could be similar to the Pacers’ series in that Valanciunas starts off hot before the opponent makes some adjustments against him. I’ll label him as an elite play in this slate, but I actually prefer Tristan Thompson on FanDuel.
Secondary Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $7,500 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.75 | FP/Min: | 1.05 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37.0 | 39.1 | 2.1 | 39.5 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 29.4 | -9.1 | 27.7 | -10.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 19.5 | -3.4 | 17.7 | -5.1 |
Lowry hit that amazing half-court shot to send Game 1 into overtime. That was one of the only shots that he hit all night. He was seen in the gym late on Tuesday night working on his shot. I want to believe that he will turn things around, but he just hasn’t been the same over the last month of play. At this point, he is a GPP play until he can start knocking down some shots.