NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 11th - Page Three
San Antonio at Portland – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Leonard-Plumlee
| San Antonio | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.30 | Team Pace | 99.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Meyers Leonard | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 26 | Opp. Season | 26 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 8 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are currently tied for the second-best record in the Western Conference at 5-2. They are headed for another strong season and with LaMarcus Aldridge on board, they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs. The Spurs are listed as 7.5-point favorites tonight against Aldridge’s former team, the Blazers.
- Portland Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.8 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.1 (16 of 30)
The Blazers have played at an average pace this season and they have had a slightly below-average defense. If I were to grade this matchup out of ten, I would give it a six. Vegas likes the Spurs’ offense tonight, as they have an implied team total of 104.5 points.
LaMarcus Aldridge’s numbers have taken a big hit so far this season, but do we throw all of that out the window for a matchup against his former team in front of his former home crowd? He’s certainly an enticing play tonight, but I’m not willing to roll the dice on him in cash games. Fire him up in tournaments, but there are better plays at power forward, dollar for dollar. Kawhi Leonard draws a tough matchup against Al-Farouq Aminu, but he has been matchup proof this season. He has a high usage rate and he is a stat-stuffing machine. Continue targeting him as an elite small forward option.
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard
FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 23.3
FP/Game: 38.1 — FP/Min.: 1.15
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge
FD: $8,100 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 29.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.0
FP/Game: 29.3 — FP/Min.: 0.99
Portland
The Blazers have surprised some people with their play early in the season. They are 4-4 to start the year, after losing four of their starters from a season ago. Unfortunately, they draw one of the worst matchups in all of basketball, as they have to square off against the Spurs, who have been dominating opponents for what seems like a millennium.
- San Antonio Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 91.7 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 92.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.5 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 179.6 (3 of 30)
If you target players against the Spurs every night for the rest of the season, you will not be happy with your results at the end of the year. Sure, players can have good games against them every now and then, but why take the risk on a full slate? The Spurs are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Al Farouq-Aminu have been three of my favorite plays this season, but I will pass on them tonight in a tough matchup against San Antonio.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE