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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-12 17:58:38

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM

Toronto Philadelphia
torontonba Vegas Total 193.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 92.5
Team Pace 99.20 Team Pace 99.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Richaun Holmes Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 24 2 29 24 22 Opp. Season 3 20 18 13 23
Opp. Last 7 25 5 29 22 17 Opp. Last 7 18 15 22 9 30

Toronto

The Raptors have lost three games in a row and are now playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The good news is that they are facing a Sixers team that has yet to find the win column this season. The Raptors are listed as 8.5-point favorites in a game that features a low total of 193.5 points.

The Sixers remain one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers have finally figured out that playing at a fast pace only makes the situation worse, as they are playing at a pace slightly below the league average. The Raptors are projected to score 101 points tonight, but this game does have some blowout concern.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are strong plays in the backcourt tonight against T.J. McConnell and Nik Stauskas. I am a little concerned that they played 37 and 38 minutes, respectively, last night. However, given their matchup and the fact that DeMarre Carroll and Terrence Ross could both miss another game, both should be heavily involved offensively. The only question is whether or not they stand out as must plays on a night that features 11 games. James Johnson would become an elite value play, if he draws another start at small forward. We likely won’t know the status of Carroll until closer to tip-off.

Elite Plays

James Johnson (If DeMarre Carroll is out )

FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,100
Min/Game: 13.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 8.5
FP/Game: 8.2 — FP/Min.: 0.60

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $8,000 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.4
FP/Game: 37.6 — FP/Min.: 1.08

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 36.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 24.1
FP/Game: 33.4 — FP/Min.: 0.92

Philadelphia

The Sixers have lost each of their first seven games and they haven’t exactly been competitive, losing by an average of 13.3 points. To make matters worse, they have already ruled out Nerlens Noel and Robert Covington for tonight’s game against the Raptors. While anything can happen in the NBA, it may be another lopsided loss for the Sixers.

The Sixers draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. The Raptors have slowed their pace of play this season and they have improved on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Sixers have a low implied team total of 92.5 points, but with all of the injuries, that production has to come from somewhere.

With Nerlens Noel out, Jahlil Okafor becomes an obvious play tonight at center. He had 21 points and 15 rebounds against the Bulls the other night with Noel out and it was clear that he was their number one option offensively, as he had 25 shot attempts from the floor. Noel’s absence also gives a boost to Jerami Grant and Richaun Holmes. T.J. McConnell is a stat-stuffing point guard that continues to see around 30 minutes per game. His price continues to rise, but it has yet to fully catch up to his production. And finally, we have Mr. Sauce Castillo – Nik Stauskas. He is a better tournament play with a full schedule, but he provides good upside at his price point.

Elite Plays

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 33.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 23.4
FP/Game: 30.4 — FP/Min.: 0.90

T.J. McConnell

FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 28.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 11.5
FP/Game: 24.4 — FP/Min.: 0.85

Secondary Plays

Nik Stauskas

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.8
FP/Game: 22.2 — FP/Min.: 0.69

Jerami Grant

FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 25.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.9
FP/Game: 20.2 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Richaun Holmes

FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 14.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 13.5
FP/Game: 10.3 — FP/Min.: 0.72

New York at Charlotte – 7:00 PM

New York Charlotte
newyorknba Vegas Total 200.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 8 16 8 26 15 Opp. Season 15 12 13 14 17
Opp. Last 7 17 16 11 24 25 Opp. Last 7 14 26 15 10 12

New York

The Knicks are looking for their third win in a row, as they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets tonight. This game doesn’t exactly stand out on a night with a full slate of games, but the total is set at 200 points and the game is expected to stay fairly close throughout, as the Knicks are listed as 5.5-point underdogs.

The Knicks draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked between 12th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied team total of 97.3 points, which is well below the average of the 22 teams in action tonight.

The usual suspects are in play tonight from New York, although no individual stands out as an elite play at his position. Carmelo Anthony has a high floor and a high ceiling, but there are better superstars to pay up for. Kristaps Porzingis is the closest to an elite play, although his minutes have been a little too erratic to use in cash games. And finally, Langston Galloway has been playing big minutes off the bench. However, I usually try to avoid bench players on full slates, because there are typically better values out there.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD: $9,400 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 33.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 27.4
FP/Game: 36.8 — FP/Min.: 1.09

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 23.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.5
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Langston Galloway

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 27.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.6
FP/Game: 23.0 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Charlotte

The Hornets are only 3-4 to start the season, but they should be a fringe playoff team in the weak Eastern Conference. They are listed as 5.5-point favorites tonight against the Knicks at home in a game that is expected to be played at a relatively slow pace.

The Knicks also present a mediocre matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked between 11th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied team total of 102.8 points tonight, which is slightly higher than their average points score per game this season.

While there are certainly a few players that deserve consideration here, no individual stands out as an elite play. We have to remember that the larger the slate gets, the less we should have to force a player into our lineups. Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, and Marvin Williams have all been productive in the early part of the season, but there are better fantasy options at each of their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Al Jefferson

FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 26.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.6
FP/Game: 27.6 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Kemba Walker

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 31.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.6
FP/Game: 29.3 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Nicolas Batum

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 33.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.4
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Marvin Williams

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 32.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 12.2
FP/Game: 25.8 — FP/Min.: 0.80

L.A. Lakers at Orlando – 7:00 PM

L.A. Lakers Orlando
lalakersnba Vegas Total 201.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 102.40 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Metta World Peace Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 27 6 11 7 14 Opp. Season 23 9 25 28 27
Opp. Last 7 13 19 3 4 19 Opp. Last 7 21 14 17 23 24

L.A. Lakers

I always love seeing two bad teams facing off against one another, especially when both teams play at a fast pace. The Lakers and Magic should provide plenty of fantasy appeal in a game that should feature very little defense. While the total for the game is only set at 201 points, that has more to do with the inefficient offenses than it does the defenses.

The Lakers draw a fairly decent matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 22nd in fantasy points allowed per game this season. Los Angeles is only projected to score 96.5 points, but that is a little misleading. With the pace at which both of these teams play, that increases the opportunity for all statistics and a team’s implied total only accounts for points scored.

Kobe Bryant missed last night’s game with a back injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Magic. If he is forced to miss another game, Jordan Clarkson, Metta World Peace, Nick Young, and Lou Williams would all see a small fantasy boost. The only option that really stands out in this matchup is Julius Randle. He is an extremely athletic young big that should get plenty of open looks in transition tonight. He is coming off of a poor game against the Heat, which should take him off of most people’s radar.

Elite Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 28.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.7
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min.: 0.92

Secondary Plays

Louis Williams

FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 26.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.1
FP/Game: 23.1 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Orlando

The Magic are only 3-5 to start the season, but they are one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as advertised, but they play at a quick pace and they have been involved in some very high scoring games. They will look to inch their way closer to .500 with a win tonight against the Lakers.

The Magic draw one of the best matchups in all of basketball tonight, as they square off against the Lakers at home. Lakers players have been spotted taking Benadryl before games, as they are highly allergic to defense. They are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.

The Magic canceled Wednesday morning’s shootaround, so we aren’t going to get an update on Nikola Vucevic until later in the day. If he is unable to suit up, continue to use Dewayne Dedmon as a strong value play at center. Regardless of who starts at the five, the other four starters are all in play tonight against the Lakers. Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier are both elite plays at their respective positions, while I would limit my exposure to Tobias Harris and Elfrid Payton in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 38.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.0
FP/Game: 34.9 — FP/Min.: 0.90

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,500 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 37.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.1
FP/Game: 27.7 — FP/Min.: 0.73

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.6
FP/Game: 27.0 — FP/Min.: 0.90

Elfrid Payton

FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 29.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.1
FP/Game: 22.7 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Dewayne Dedmon

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 21.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.7
FP/Game: 19.0 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Indiana at Boston – 7:30 PM

Indiana Boston
indiananba Vegas Total 202.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 97.60 Team Pace 103.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George C.J. Miles Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Jared Sullinger Amir Johnson
Opp. Season 1 30 19 16 16 Opp. Season 2 21 9 12 20
Opp. Last 7 5 10 19 7 22 Opp. Last 7 4 18 9 27 2

Indiana

The Pacers are slowly climbing their way back up the Eastern Conference standings, as they got off to a very rocky start this season. Tonight they head to Boston to take on a Celtics’ team that will likely finish right by the Pacers in the standings when all is said and done.

The Celtics have played at a fast pace this season, but they have still been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Avery Bradley has always been known as an elite defender and the addition of Jae Crowder has really bolstered this defense. On the season, Boston is ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have an implied team total of 99.5 points though, so Vegas is expecting them to have some success on offense.

Paul George has been matchup proof so far this season and until that changes, he remains an elite play at the always-thin small forward position. George draws a difficult matchup against Jae Crowder, but a high usage rate and an ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet give that that elite play status tonight. George Hill has been a minutes monster this season and with Rodney Stuckey ruled out, he could see 38+ minutes again tonight. C.J. Miles is always an interesting tournament play, as he can catch fire at any point.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,800
Min/Game: 35.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.1
FP/Game: 41.2 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Secondary Plays

George Hill

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 37.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.7
FP/Game: 28.1 — FP/Min.: 0.75

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 27.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.4
FP/Game: 18.0 — FP/Min.: 0.65

Boston

The Celtics seem to be involved in a blowout every time they are on the schedule and they are all about equal opportunity, as they have been on both sides of the equation. Luckily, that shouldn’t be the case tonight, as Vegas is expected a highly-contested battle between the Pacers and Celtics in Boston.

If you read any of the Grind Downs early in the season, then you shouldn’t be too surprised with how much improvement the Pacers have had on the defensive end of the floor in their last few games. Under Frank Vogel, the Pacers are a top ten defense each and every season. At the moment, they are ranked tenth of better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game.

The Celtics have an implied team total of 103 points tonight, which seems a bit high given their matchup. When in doubt, I always like to defer to Vegas though, as they know what they are doing. The big question here is whether or not Marcus Smart will play. The Celtics say that they are hopeful, but if he is unable to suit up, Isaiah Thomas would become a borderline elite play again tonight. And yes, my man crush let us down in a big way last night, but it was just an off night. He still put up 20 shot attempts against the Bucks. If Smart is able to play, I will likely be fading the Celtics altogether. Jae Crowder is a viable option at small forward, but the matchup isn’t great.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas (if Marcus Smart is ruled out)

FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 30.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 29.5
FP/Game: 32.5 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.1
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min.: 0.82

Brooklyn at Houston – 8:00 PM

Brooklyn Houston
brooklynnba Vegas Total 206.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 101.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Joe Johnson Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Ty Lawson Marcus Thornton James Harden Trevor Ariza Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 22 13 28 30 19 Opp. Season 18 18 27 10 13
Opp. Last 7 28 13 28 30 13 Opp. Last 7 19 9 21 15 15

Brooklyn

The Nets are one of two remaining teams that have yet to place a one in the win column this season. It is now a race between the Nets and the Sixers to see which team can pick up a win first. My money is on the Nets, although they are both likely headed for losses tonight. The Nets draw a tough matchup against the Rockets in Houston.

The Rockets have not been as stout defensively as they were last season. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even with a favorable matchup, the Nets are still only projected to score 96.8 points, which is one of the lowest implied team totals on the board tonight.

Given the low team total and the fact that this game could very easily be out of hand by the end of the third quarter, the Nets are secondary plays at best tonight. You can take a chance on the very cheap Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but he is really the only Nets player that I plan on having any exposure to. The risk outweighs the potential reward for the rest of the starters.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 18.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 9.1
FP/Game: 13.9 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Houston

The Rockets are large favorites tonight against the struggling Nets, who have yet to pick up a win this season. The potential blowout was already enough to avoid the Rockets, but it becomes even easier now that Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverley are expected to return to the lineup.

On paper, the Rockets draw a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While I love the implied team total of 109.3 points, I am concerned that the starters may only see three quarters of action tonight. The Rockets are 12.5-point favorites at home. James Harden should be able to get what he wants offensively, but this may be a game where the Rockets spread out the production en route to an easy win.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,100 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 39.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 29.1
FP/Game: 45.5 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 36.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 12.9
FP/Game: 23.9 — FP/Min.: 0.65

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious