Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 11th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-11 19:32:07

grind%20down%20article%20faq

New Orleans at Atlanta – 8:00 PM

New Orleans Atlanta
neworleansnba Vegas Total 210.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 103.20 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Eric Gordon Luke Babbitt Ryan Anderson Omer Asik Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 11 19 11 19 28 Opp. Season 29 26 10 21 25
Opp. Last 7 20 23 7 28 20 Opp. Last 7 23 21 14 29 11

New Orleans

The Pelicans picked up their first win of the season last night, but it didn’t come without a price. Anthony Davis suffered a right hip strain that kept him out of the second half against the Mavericks. It sounds like he will miss tonight’s game against the Hawks, as he is listed as doubtful. The Pelicans will also be without Jrue Holiday, who will not play in the second half of a back-to-back.

The Pelicans draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked between 12th and 20th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Pelicans have a low implied team total of 99.8 points, but without Anthony Davis, the rest of the starters are going to have to pick up the slack on both ends of the floor.

With the injuries to the Pelicans, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, and Ish Smith are all elite plays tonight, even in a potential blowout. There is such a gaping hole that Davis leaves production wise and these three players are the likely candidates to fill it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see all three of these players reach value and if they can somehow keep the game close, they could easily exceed value.

Elite Plays

Ryan Anderson

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.7
FP/Game: 29.0 — FP/Min.: 0.94

Eric Gordon

FD: $5,500 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 35.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.4
FP/Game: 26.6 — FP/Min.: 0.74

Ishmael Smith

FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 26.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.7
FP/Game: 27.4 — FP/Min.: 1.02

Secondary Plays

Toney Douglas

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 20.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.4
FP/Game: 18.0 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Atlanta

The Hawks’ fantasy appeal is actually hurt with Anthony Davis out tonight. You would think that their appeal would go up with a team’s best defender out, but that’s exactly the problem. Without Davis in the lineup, the Hawks should be able to get anything that they want offensively. The Hawks are the Spurs of the East and we all know what to do in games where the Spurs are favored by double-digits.

The Pelicans are neck and neck with the Lakers for the worst defense in the NBA here in the early part of the season. They are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks have a high team total, but they are a well-balanced offense and coach Mike Budenholzer tends to rest his starters when the game gets out of hand. Kent Bazemore is the one play that I may consider in cash games, as his price has yet to catch up with his level of production.

Elite Plays

Kent Bazemore

FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 28.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.7
FP/Game: 25.2 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 34.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.4
FP/Game: 38.3 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Al Horford

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 31.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.1
FP/Game: 33.5 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Golden State at Memphis – 8:00 PM

Golden State Memphis
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 199.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 96.0
Team Pace 104.10 Team Pace 96.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Festus Ezeli Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 19 5 24 27 6 Opp. Season 21 7 4 9 18
Opp. Last 7 11 4 12 21 16 Opp. Last 7 10 7 13 11 10

Golden State

The last time these two teams met up, the Warriors doubled up the Grizzlies late in the third quarter. I believe the score was 84-42 when I noticed it. Vegas is expecting a much closer game this time around, as the Warriors are only favored by 7.5 points. However, with the total set at 199.5 points, this game lacks fantasy appeal.

The Grizzlies’ defense is in shambles right now, but I’m a believer in their system. They will right the ship eventually. They play at such a slow pace that their numbers are going to improve from that alone. The Warriors implied team total of 103.5 points may seem fairly high, but it is actually 11 points lower than their average points scored per game this season. In what should be a pace-down game for the Warriors, I will be fading this one altogether. Fading Stephen Curry is never on my list of favorite things to do, but he is going to be grossly over-owned tonight and I’m willing to take an all out fade Curry stance this once.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis

The Grizzlies were embarrassed by the Warriors in Oracle Arena in their first meeting of the season. They will come into tonight’s game with plenty of motivation, as they actually have a chance to hand the Warriors their first loss. I don’t like to make bold predictions, but when I do, I drink Dos Equis. Wait, that doesn’t sound right. I’m not going to predict a Grizzlies win, but I do think they make it interesting tonight at home.

The Warriors present one of the toughest matchups in all of basketball. They play at a fast pace, but they are ranked first in defensive efficiency this season. They have been so good on defense, that they are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and eighth in fantasy points allowed per game. Another reason to fade players against the Warriors is how often Golden State blows teams out. The risk greatly outweighs the reward here and I will be avoiding all Grizzlies’ players tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

L.A. Clippers at Dallas – 8:00 PM

L.A. Clippers Dallas
laclippersnba Vegas Total 211.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 109.0 Team Proj. 102.0
Team Pace 101.70 Team Pace 100.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 16 11 2 29 12 Opp. Season 13 24 15 4 24
Opp. Last 7 26 24 5 26 21 Opp. Last 7 15 27 6 8 26

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers are 5-2 to start the season. They seem poised for another strong regular season, followed by another disappointing early playoff exit. How is it that this has become the most hated team in basketball? I like a lot of the players in this lineup, but for whatever reason, they are easy to hate as a group. The rest of the NBA seems to agree with me, including the Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavericks present a nice matchup for the Clippers tonight. On the season, Dallas is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Clippers are projected to score 109 points, which is the third-highest team total on the board tonight.

I can’t wait to see how the Mavericks’ fans react when DeAndre Jordan is announced tonight. There will likely a chorus of boos louder than we will hear the rest of the season at the American Airlines Arena. There are some players that I’d expect to show up in a big way in this situation, however, Jordan doesn’t really seem to feed off of negative energy. Plus, he doesn’t create his own shot. I’ll list him as a secondary option. Blake Griffin remains an elite play at power forward, as he has truly become a complete player on both ends of the floor.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $10,200 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 35.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.5
FP/Game: 46.8 — FP/Min.: 1.31

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

FD: $9,100 — DK: $8,800
Min/Game: 32.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.0
FP/Game: 32.6 — FP/Min.: 1.01

DeAndre Jordan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.3
FP/Game: 34.5 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Dallas

Mark Cuban hates the Clippers. So does the entire city of Dallas. Tonight should be a fun one. Even though the Mavericks are listed as seven-point underdogs, they will have that added motivation to play well tonight.

The Clippers play at a fast pace and they have been average defensively. While this may not be the best matchup on the board, it’s certainly not the worst either. The Mavericks are projected to score 102 points tonight, which is higher than the average of the 22 teams in action tonight. The biggest problem with the Mavericks is that no one is guaranteed to play more than 30 minutes each night. Dirk Nowitzki is the closest to it, but there are better players at his price point tonight (like Julius Randle, for example). While I expect the Mavericks to come out swinging (not literally, of course), I won’t be targeting any of their players tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 21.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.5
FP/Game: 24.0 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Milwaukee at Denver – 9:00 PM

Milwaukee Denver
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 198.5 denvernba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 100.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tyler Ennis Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried J.J. Hickson
Opp. Season 30 29 6 15 21 Opp. Season 14 10 14 25 8
Opp. Last 7 27 20 20 12 23 Opp. Last 7 8 3 16 25 7

Milwaukee

The Bucks lost to the Celtics last night at home, but they have a quick turnaround, as they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. While many will say that this is a good spot to fade Milwaukee, since they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back in the thin air of Denver, I disagree. The Nuggets fast pace of play gives the Bucks a nice fantasy boost as a whole.

The Nuggets have been a little better defensively this season, but that isn’t saying a whole lot. They are still ranked 21st or worst in points allowed per game, defenisve efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks are only projected to score 97.8 points tonight, but they should see an increase in possessions, as Denver has averaged five more possessions per game than Milwaukee has this season.

Michael Carter-Williams did not practice on Monday and he sat out last night’s game against the Celtics. While he is listed as questionable for tonight, it would be a surprise if he was able to suit up. If MCW is ruled out, Jerryd Bayless stands to benefit the most. He has had some nice fantasy outings this season and he is still affordable across the industry. Greg Monroe should be able to dominate the weak interior defense of the Nuggets. This is also a good spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played limited minutes last night thanks to foul trouble. Don’t be surprised if he leads the Bucks in minutes played tonight.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,300
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.7
FP/Game: 37.5 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 35.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.1
FP/Game: 30.8 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 35.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.5
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min.: 0.66

Jerryd Bayless

FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 30.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.4
FP/Game: 20.2 — FP/Min.: 0.66

Denver

The Nuggets improved to 3-4 on the season with a nice win over the Blazers at home the other night. While I’d like to tell you that they have hope of making a playoff push, I’m not about feeding people lies. Tonight the Nuggets host the visiting Bucks, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

The Bucks have been the second slowest paced team in the NBA this season, averaging only 95.6 possessions per game. Their numbers defensively have yet to improve, but I still expect them to be a top ten defense when all is said and done. The Nuggets may be small favorites tonight, but I’m not a big fan of the matchup. With a full slate of games, there are better matchups to exploit. Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay are both decent tournament targets, but they are too volatile to use in cash games. The one exception that I would make here is if the Nuggets decide to go small and start Will Barton. If that happens to be the case, bump up Barton to an elite play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 33.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.9
FP/Game: 27.1 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 30.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.3
FP/Game: 25.4 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Will Barton

FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 25.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.3
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Detroit at Sacramento – 10:00 PM

Detroit Sacramento
detroitnba Vegas Total 203.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 104.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo James Anderson Rudy Gay Willie Cauley-Stein DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 12 27 22 23 30 Opp. Season 10 22 3 22 1
Opp. Last 7 29 30 26 17 27 Opp. Last 7 9 28 2 19 1

Detroit

The Pistons have really played well to start the season. They are 5-2 and have held their opponents to 96 points per game. They will look to continue their winning ways tonight, as they take on the Kings in Sacramento. This should be a fun game to watch, as the two best centers in the NBA square off against one another.

The Pistons draw one of the most favorable matchups on the board tonight. The Kings are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Pistons have an implied team total of 101.3 points, which is a couple of points higher than their average points scored this season.

It will be interesting to see if Andre Drummond and DeMarcus Cousins end up defending one another. These are two of the best big men in the NBA and both are very good at drawing fouls. The Kings can afford to stick Cousins on Ersan Ilyasova, but I’m not sure that the Pistons can afford to stick Drummond on Willie Cauley-Stein. That would be feeding Ilyasova to the Wolves. I am a little worried about Drummond’s potential foul trouble in this matchup, but since that is hard to predict, I will keep him as an elite play tonight. Marcus Morris is also in the mix as an elite play, as he continues to log heavy minutes. Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both viable secondary options.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $9,900 — DK: $9,400
Min/Game: 37.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.7
FP/Game: 49.2 — FP/Min.: 1.31

Marcus Morris

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 38.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.8
FP/Game: 28.8 — FP/Min.: 0.74

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 28.8
FP/Game: 35.2 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.2
FP/Game: 24.1 — FP/Min.: 0.63

Sacramento

The Kings are happy to have DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup, as they looked more like a D-League team when he was out with his injury. Despite sporting a 1-7 record, the Kings are listed as 1-point favorites tonight against the Pistons at home.

The Kings implied team total of 102.3 points seems a big high, but once again, I’ll defer to Vegas. Their matchup against the Pistons appears tough on paper, as they are a slow paced team that is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.

DeMarcus Cousins wasted little time getting back to work, as he put up 23 points and 12 rebounds in his first game back from injury. He will have his hands full with Andre Drummond tonight, but I still like him as a tournament play. Rudy Gay hasn’t had that upside that we are used to seeing from him. I will continue to avoid him in all league formats. Rajon Rondo could be an intriguing play tonight if Darren Collison is ruled out. Rondo has averaged 46 minutes per game in the last two without Collison.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

FD: $10,200 — DK: $9,800
Min/Game: 27.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 31.9
FP/Game: 39.0 — FP/Min.: 1.41

Rajon Rondo (if Darren Collison is ruled out)

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 31.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.5
FP/Game: 31.5 — FP/Min.: 0.99

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious