NBA Player Props and Picks for Today — Wednesday, March 2nd
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Happy Hump Day, Grinders! We’re excited for a tidy little eight-game slate this evening, and ready to tackle another night of NBA props. We used Monkey Knife Fight on Monday, and ventured over to PrizePicks yesterday to hit five of six props. Now we’re taking our talents to Underdog Fantasy, one of our favorite daily fantasy sites that has grown in popularity exponentially since it launched in the summer of 2020.
Like many of its colleagues, Underdog has a very simple setup for props: select a player and his stat number, and pick over or under. The more props you pick correctly, the higher your payout. Get two right, and you win three times your buy-in. Three correct: six times your buy-in. Four correct: 10 times. Hit on five out of five: 20 times. Basically, you can make some sweet cash with very little effort. So, let’s get to it! Here’s our five best NBA player props for Wednesday.
All props are from Underdog Fantasy. All stats are from Pro Basketball Reference.
Best NBA Prop Picks — Underdog Fantasy
Joel Embiid, 76ers vs. Knicks: OVER 31.5 Points
A legitimate MVP contender, Embiid has played at an elite level all season. Now he’s playing even better with James Harden running the point for the Sixers. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring with 29.8 points per game, and his percentages are off the charts for a big man (49.4% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 81.5% FT). He’s averaged 37.6 points over Philly’s last three games, and he dropped 37 on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden on Sunday. Now he’s back at home against that same Knicks team, which has surrendered 117 points per game over its last three. I’ll take Embiid with confidence here.
James Harden, 76ers vs. Knicks: OVER 43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Hell hath no fury like a motivated (and recently-traded) James Harden. The Beard has hit the ground running since debuting in Philly two games ago, averaging 28 points, 14 assists, and nine rebounds per game as a Sixer. For the mathematically-challenged, that’s 51 total points + rebounds + assists. We only need 44 to green here, so we’re taking this prop and running. Harden put up 29 points, 10 rebounds, and a whopping 16 assists at MSG on Sunday, and added a season-high five steals for good measure. There’s no doubt in my mind he will cover this prop with ease against the hapless New York defense.
Jonas Valanciunas, Pelicans vs. Kings: OVER 30.5 Points + Rebounds
Big V has enjoyed a monster season with the Pelicans, with his stats benefiting greatly from the absence of Zion Williamson. Valanciunas averages 18 points and 11.6 rebounds per game this season, teetering right on the edge of this prop benchmark. I think he’ll score right around the 19 point range he’s consistently hit over the past few weeks, and rip down 12-14 rebounds. Big V always eats against the Domantis Sabonis, the Kings’ newest big-man addition from their deadline deal with Indiana. And he’s averaged 19 and 12 against Sac-town this season, which would put us right where we need to be. Bet on the big guy.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks vs. Heat: UNDER 28.5 Points
Antetokounmpo has enjoyed another MVP-caliber year, averaging 29.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, and six assists per game. However, Eastern Conference rival Miami has kept him in check both times the Heat and the Bucks have met this season. The Greek Freak was limited to 15 points in both games, on a collective 8-of-24 shot chart (33.3% FG). Miami has played some of its best defense of the season as of late, so I think Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and P.J. Tucker keep Giannis under his scoring average once again tonight.
Jrue Holiday, Bucks vs. Heat: OVER 24.5 Points + Assists
Milwaukee must pick up the slack from Giannis scoring under 29 points – and I think sidekick Khris Middleton will struggle a bit against Butler and company – so I’m going with the Jrue points/assists prop. Veteran Heat guard Kyle Lowry will be out for personal reasons once again (and Caleb Martin is questionable with an Achilles injury), paving the way to a more comfortable offensive evening for Holiday. Gabe Vincent has been good on both sides of the floor in spot-starts for Miami, but defending Kung-fu Jrue for 32-35 minutes will be a tall task. Holiday had 29 points + assists in Milwaukee’s last game against Charlotte, 26 points + assists two games ago versus Brooklyn, and 27 just before the All-Star break against Philly. I think he’ll easily clear 24 points + assists tonight.
Image Credit: Imagn