NBA Playoff Predictions: Odds, Best Bets & Matchups
It’s go time! The 2021 NBA Playoffs are in full swing, so I am putting my MLB picks on the backburner to focus on some NBA betting tips. And today is a perfect time to make my first NBA playoff predictions. Tuesday night features a juicy three-game slate that will be sure to entertain, and hopefully fill up our pockets as well.
Just like my MLB Bets of the Day column, I will be advising you on which bets to make and why you should consider making them. For baseball, I choose a few games I like the most. For the NBA Playoffs, I will cover every game of the night and highlight my favorites first. As I’m a former English professor, I will provide a grade for each bet (A+ all the way down to D-).
Let’s get it popping, RotoGrinders crew! Raise a champagne toast to playoff basketball—may your sportsbook accounts be as full as your glass. Cheers!
All NBA odds are from PointsBet and BetMGM, and all betting and statistical data is from TeM Rankings and Basketball Reference.
NBA Playoff Predictions — Tuesday, May 25th
Brooklyn Nets (1-0) vs. Boston Celtics
Game 2 Opening Odds: BKN -9.5/-500 ML, O/U 227, BKN -5.5/-280 ML 1H, 1H O/U 112
NBA Picks: Nets – 280 1H ML (A-), 1H UNDER 112 (B-)
As a lifelong self-loathing Boston Celtics fan, even I have trouble picking against the C’s getting nearly 10 points. This spread straight up stinks, and I’m not touching it with a ten-foot pole. The Nets -500 moneyline offers little value as well, lending bettors too much risk for too little reward. Thus, I’m leaning toward two first-half props: Brooklyn’s -280 first-half moneyline and the UNDER on the 112 halftime total.
The Nets have demonstrated all season that they are on a different level than the Celtics. Brooklyn swept Boston in the regular season, outscoring the Celts 353-298 in the three-game series. The worst part? Boston had Jaylen Brown in two of those three games, and Brooklyn did not have all three of its superstar trio in any of them.
The Nets did, however, have Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving in Game 1, and their collective efforts proved too much for the scrappy Celts without Brown. Boston came out swinging—playing physical defense led by point guard Marcus Smart and center “(player-popup #robert-williams-iii)Robert Williams”:/players/robert-williams-iii-408780—and the C’s took a five-point lead to the locker room at halftime. But Team Green didn’t have enough to go twelve rounds with the Nets’ heavyweights. Frankly, I don’t think they have enough to go twelve rounds in any game this series.
Boston has too many holes on both sides of the floor without Brown, who averaged 24.7 points, six rebounds and 3.4 assists per game before his season ended with a torn scapholunate ligament in his left wrist. In the Celtics’ final seven games without the fifth-year stud, they lost five games and failed to reach 100 points three times.
All-Star forward Jayson Tatum has answered the bell as Boston’s go-to workhorse, and veteran All-Star point guard Kemba Walker looked as determined as he has all season in a hot-shooting Game 1. However, the Celtics can’t possibly stop all three of Brooklyn’s All-NBA level scorers, nor can they outscore the Nets with just Tatum and Walker providing a consistent scoring punch.
Oddly enough, Brown’s value seems to be more evident now than a few months ago when he got snubbed from the All-Star game. Never mind the numbers—the loss of his intangibles, like his perimeter defense, highly intelligent playmaking, and quiet floor leadership—were seen by most Green Teamers as the final nail in the coffin of an extremely difficult season.
Boston played about as tough—and about as mistake-free—as it could in the first half of Game 1, leading at intermission 53-47. But Brooklyn turned on the burners in the second half, and ended up coasting to a 104-93 win. The Celtics won the assist battle 19-18, and the swat-happy Williams helped them dominate the blocks column 12-7. But the Nets destroyed the C’s on the boards 50-40, they shot nearly five percent better from the field (41.7% to 36.9%), and they missed just three of their 29 free-throw attempts (89.7%, compared to Boston’s 76.9%).
If the Celtics can’t play scrappy for 48 minutes, get to all the 50/50 balls, and win the board battle, they have no chance at winning a game this series. They caught the Nets snoozing a bit at the start of the series opener, but I highly doubt Brooklyn will start so slow in Game 2. If Boston head coach Brad Stevens thinks he can get away with even 10 minutes of Jabari Parker guarding Kevin Durant, or Evan Fournier guarding James Harden, his seat might be hotter than we ever imagined.
I don’t like this game to be a runaway, but I also really don’t like picking the Celtics in any way, shape, or form tonight. In my humble opinion, betting on the heavily-favored home Nets to have the lead at halftime is the best bet of the day. I’m very intrigued by the UNDER at halftime, as well—these teams averaged just over 107 points in their three regular-season tilts, and that was without Brooklyn’s Big Three and before Brown’s season-ending injury. With the Big Three present, and without Brown, they combined for just 100 first-half points Saturday.
I don’t expect many barn-burners in this series—but I do expect that the C’s (and Boston hoops fans) will likely be put out of their misery by the end of the week.
HALFTIME PREDICTION: Nets 57-53
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nets 118-111
Phoenix Suns (1-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Game 2 Opening Odds: LA -1.5/-120 ML, O/U 208, LA -1.5/-140 ML 1H, O/U 106 1H
NBA Picks: Suns + 100 ML (B+) or +1.5 (B)
It seems like everybody and their mother picked the defending-champion Lakers to upset the No. 2 seeded Suns in this series. Phoenix had something to say about that in a convincing 99-90 Game 1 victory. But can the Suns continue to contain the beast known as the Brow?
If Deandre Ayton continues to play like he did Sunday, then probably. The 2018 No. 1 pick, who may forever be known as the guy who went ahead of Luka Doncic, has finally made a case for himself as a lottery talent. After a solid season, the center broke out in a major way in his postseason debut against Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and the world champs.
Ayton started the game strong, and finished even stronger. All said, he chipped in 21 points and 16 rebounds. He made 10 of the 11 shots he took. He dominated the paint, tracked down loose balls, and looked focused defensively from the jump. He held Davis, normally a matchup nightmare, to just 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting and seven rebounds.
The third-year big man’s contributions helped Phoenix win some crucial stat columns. Ths Suns outrebounded LA 47-33, outscored the Lakers 52-44 in the paint, and scored 21 second-chance points compared to the reigning champs’ 10. Ayton’s strong interior defense also forced LA to kick the ball outside for 26 three-point attempts, but the Lakers only sunk seven of them.
That’s because Phoenix also has great perimeter defense between veteran Chris Paul and elite three-and-D guy Mikal Bridges. The Suns are also one of the best-coached teams in the Association, led by the criminally-underrated Monty Williams. All you ever seem to hear about in reference to these Suns is that they overachieved during the regular season and will get knocked in the playoffs by LeBron and AD. Well, isn’t it possible the Lakers overachieved in a COVID-shortened season with a funky Bubble postseason last year?
Phoenix would absolutely love being called the underdog all series, but I’m not falling for it. Chris Paul is the best leader in the game, and still one of the best playmakers and competitors. Devin Booker remains one of the most effortless scorers in the NBA. Bridges and veteran Jae Crowder are guys who help good teams reach great heights. And Ayton, when motivated like he seemed to be in Game 1, can take over a game.
Phoenix was an NBA-best 24-13 against the spread at home this season (65% cover percentage), and 27-9 straight-up at home (75%). Now they’re somehow still being called underdogs, after routinely dismissing the Lakers at home in Game 1. I’ll take the undies with a 1.5-point handicap, or even better, on their +100 moneyline. I’ll also take the OVER on 1.5 LeBron James fake injuries. That ‘oughtta raise some brows.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Suns 111-107
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks (1-0)
Game 2 Opening Odds: LA -6.5/-275 ML, O/U 215.5, LA -5/-265 ML 1H, O/U 110 1H
NBA Pick: Clippers -270 (C+)
I’m finally picking a team that’s currently losing a series 0-1. And I’m all over LA in this one. You could have listed the Clippers at -420 and I might have jumped on it. Simply put, I don’t see one of the most intelligent defensive teams struggling to contain “(player-popup #luka-doncic)Luka Doncic”:/players/luka-doncic-408971’s pick-and-roll offense two home games in a row.
Doncic deserves his just due, as he ran a spectacular offensive show Saturday, and finished with 31 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. As he was so often during the regular season, he was electric with the ball in his hands. He hit a bevy of tough shots, made even more open shots, and he perfectly integrated his teammates when he drew a double team, a tough switch, or he spotted a mismatch. Four other Mavericks finished with 14 points or more.
I expect perennial Championship contender Kawhi Leonard and fellow All-Defensive regular Paul George will have an answer for Doncic’s approach in Game 2. They are entirely too smart—and far too composed—to let an almost-perfect performance from a great young player ruin their mindset for the rest of the series.
I also don’t think the Mavericks’ supporting cast can be trusted to regularly contribute 15-20 points each. Kristaps Porzingis has been a shell of his former All-Star self this season. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith have shown flashes, but also tend to disappear just as often. And Jalen Brunson has been terrific, but I doubt he can average 15 points for the series against LA’s tough perimeter D.
It may be boring to bet the home favorite -270 on the moneyline, but I just can’t bring myself to touch the spread at six one way or the other. This one could be close throughout, and it’s the best matchup of the Tuesday slate, but I’d be shocked if the Clippers didn’t even the series 1-1 before heading to Dallas.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Clippers 115-111
Image Credit: Imagn