NBA Playoff Preview - Best Bets on the Futures Market, April 11
What kind of performances can we expect from the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, and Golden State Warriors during the NBA playoffs? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA postseason bets on the hardwood.
On Saturday, April 15th, the 2023 NBA playoffs will begin.
During the regular season, the Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) posted the league’s best record, followed by the Boston Celtics (57-25) and Philadelphia 76ers (54-28). The Denver Nuggets (53-29) paced the Western Conference.
Last year’s champions, the Golden State Warriors (44-38), earned the #6 seed in the Western Conference, importantly avoiding the play-in tournament, which will take place from Tuesday through Friday to determine the final two playoff teams in each conference.
Below, we take a look at three of our favorite bets to make before the postseason gets started this weekend!
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NBA Playoff Bets, April 11, 2023
- Milwaukee Bucks – NBA Champion
- Golden State Warriors – Western Conference Winner
- New York Knicks – Series Winner
Milwaukee Bucks – NBA Champion (+275), Caesars
Following the return of Khris Middleton on January 23, the Milwaukee Bucks looked unstoppable. Milwaukee won 13 consecutive games with Middleton in uniform from January 23 to February 28, with notable victories against the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, and Phoenix Suns included in that stretch.
Overall, the Bucks went 29-7 after Middleton’s return, including games down the stretch in which key players were on a minutes restriction or resting completely. According to Cleaning the Glass, Milwaukee ranked in the 99th percentile in offensive efficiency this year when Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Middleton were on the floor at the same time. This roster has no shortage of shooters or rebounders – two key areas of emphasis this time of the season.
It is not the sexiest prediction in the world, but the Bucks have a great opportunity to win a title this June, especially considering the fact that they will avoid the Boston Celtics or Philadelphia 76ers until the Eastern Conference finals.
Golden State Warriors – Western Conference Winner (+500), BetMGM
The defending champion Golden State Warriors are being extremely undervalued in a Western Conference playoff bracket that lacks a consensus favorite. The primary reason for this is likely the fact that the Warriors finished the regular season 11-30 on the road. However, the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, and all four play-in teams in the Western Conference also finished the regular season below .500 on the road. The Los Angeles Clippers were only 21-20 on the road.
Though Golden State struggled away from home this season, this appears to be a correctable issue, considering that they have returned the same core from the 2022 playoffs – during which they had no issues on the road. In the opening round, they won one of two games in the altitude in Denver. In the Western Conference semifinals, Golden State won one of three games on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. Stephen Curry went 3-2 on the road in the Western Conference finals and the NBA Finals as well.
At significant plus money, this is a worthwhile risk for bettors. Golden State’s biggest hurdle to cashing this ticket may be the Sacramento Kings in the first round, which finished the regular season with 23 wins at home and 25 wins on the road.
New York Knicks – Series Winner (+172), FanDuel
According to the New York Post, the status of Julius Randle is still uncertain for their opening round playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Still, there is likely value to be had on the Knicks to advance to the second round.
During the regular season, New York won three of their four meetings against Cleveland, outscoring them by 3.3 points per 100 possessions. Notably, the Knicks out-rebounded the Cavaliers in all four contests, ending the season series with a 189-156 advantage on the glass.
Per Cleaning the Glass, New York ranked in the 49th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 84th percentile in defensive efficiency this season with Randle off of the court. Even if they do not have their leading scorer available for the entirety of this matchup, this series is likely closer to a pick’em than the market is currently suggesting.
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