NBA Starting 5: Saturday, March 4th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today, we’ll take a closer look at the Ceiling and Consistency tool. I’ll sort by the last four weeks to see what players are performing well in relation to their FanDuel salary.
The Ceiling and Consistency tool shows you how often each player has hit their value based on that day’s salary. The percentage columns (%3x, %4x, etc) show the percentage of the time that particular player has hit that value multiplier. For example, if a player has a salary of $5,000, the %3x column will show the percentage of games in which he has scored at least 15 fantasy points ($5,000 divided by 1000, then multiplied by 3).
Point Guard: Jamal Murray
Editor’s Note: Jameer Nelson (food poisoning) WILL START in tonight’s game against the Hornets.
Murray got the start last game and went for 6.5x on FanDuel. Jameer Nelson might play tonight but we haven’t heard either way yet. Murray provides value either way though. He will be the chalk if Nelson sits but he’s still worth a low owned flyer if Nelson plays. Murray has gone for at least 19 FanDuel points in nine of the last 14 games. You’re going to want multiple pieces of this favorable 221 total, and Murray is one of the best options to get there.
Shooting Guard: Tony Allen
This is a tournament-only play, but Tony Allen is in line for mid-to-high 20s minutes tonight. He will be chasing James Harden around for most of it but will likely get Harden defense on the other end. This is an extreme pace-up game game for the Grizzlies, and Allen has flashed 30-point upside before in this matchup. Allen’s floor should be somewhere in the mid-to-high 20s, which is reasonably safe, making him a solid play in tournaments for me.
Small Forward: Khris Middleton
There are rumblings that Middleton might rest tonight, but he seems intent on playing. I’m leaning towards him playing, as the Bucks are pushing for the eighth seed in the East, and every game matters down the stretch. He will be chalk again at his price point, but he’s just too cheap to pass up if he plays, as he’s put up 35 and 43 FanDuel points in his last two. He will likely be defended by DeMar DeRozan, which has proven to be a profitable matchup. Middleton is a solid play in all formats.
*If Middleton sits then look to swap to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Maurice Harkless at similar price points.
Power Forward: Al-Farouq Aminu
Aminu has now played three games since returning from injury and has posted two solid performances and one dud. Tonight is a prime matchup for another solid outing against the lowly Nets. The Blazers’ rotation also benefits Aminu, as he will play a fair amount of minutes against the Nets’ second unit. This game is also the highest total on the night, so there will be plenty of fantasy points to go around. Aminu is fairly safe in a blowout, as well because of the injuries to Evan Turner and Ed Davis. Aminu is a great tournament play with a fairly safe floor for cash games.
Center: Greg Monroe
Monroe just dropped 41 FanDuel points on the Clippers and has played over 30 minutes in four of the last seven games. Jason Kidd rotations are always roller coasters, though, so Monroe is only in play for tournaments. The masses will flock to Nurkic, who is only $100 more, so a pivot to Monroe tonight could pay off huge if Brooke Lopez is able to get Nurkic into foul trouble. Monroe has faced the Raptors three times this season with less-than-stellar results, but that was before the addition of Ibaka and Tucker. Monroe could be used more to matchup with now more skilled Raptors front court.
Starting your FanDuel lineup with these five guys will leave you with an average of $8,700 left per player.
Hopefully this information helps you with your roster construction today and leads you to a nice score. As always, feel free to leave a comment or reach out to me on Twitter, @Socky21.