NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, February 7th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
We have a very small three game slate, so I’m going to recommend steering clear of cash games for tonight. There’s just too much variance and not enough edge on these short slates to confidently build a cash game lineup. So, we’re going to focus on some FanDuel plays that you should get exposure to in tournaments. We’re going to use the Ceiling and Consistency tool over the past four weeks as a starting point to help identify players with enough upside to help you take down a GPP.
As always, the tool serves as a starting point. We will be considering other factors when selecting our players.
Point Guard: Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic, $6,600
Recent DFS darling Yogi Ferrell will be popular at his $6,100 price tag, so we should be able to get exposure to Payton at low ownership. Payton is never on my radar in cash games, but he has plenty of upside that makes him viable for tournaments. This is the same guy that dropped nearly 60 fantasy points against Utah, so the possibility of a big line exists against a Houston team that is playing at the fastest pace in the league over the past four weeks. As I mentioned above, these short slates are much better suited for tournaments, so if you’re putting multiple lineups together, make sure you get exposure to Payton. He should go low owned, and if he has a big game, you’ll be well ahead of the pack.
Shooting Guard: Sean Kilpatrick, Brooklyn Nets, $4,000
If you can get past Kilpatrick’s game log, you’ll have the opportunity to roster a player with significant upside at a very cheap price. James Harden ownership should be extremely high given the lack of other expensive options, and I really see no reason to fade him. The trick will be building a solid lineup around him. Kilpatrick should go low owned despite carrying high upside potential relative to his price. He should pick up some extra minutes with Caris LeVert out as well. He’s quite capable of eclipsing the 25 fantasy point threshold, so be sure to throw him in a few lineups tonight.
Small Forward: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic, $4,800
If you’re going to take shots on high risk, high reward players, you might as well target them against the fastest-paced team in the league. No team is pushing the pace as much as Houston right now, so the otherwise nauseating Orlando players make for solid tournament targets with the understanding that they are capable of posting atrocious lines and tanking lineups. Yes, I know, what a ringing endorsement that was. We’ve seen Gordon have huge games this season, but the minutes and the production are all over the place. Still, if he has a big game tonight, you’ll want exposure to him in some tournament lineups. This is a good matchup for him, so hopefully he can take advantage.
Power Forward: Serge Ibaka, Orlando Magic, $5,900
I’m sure you’re starting to notice a theme here. Ibaka is yet another Orlando player capable of high upside that is completely unusable in cash games. Since I’m not concerned with cash games tonight, I’m more than happy to recommend getting Ibaka into some of your tournament lineups given his 30 to 40 fantasy point upside. Also keep in mind that there are no reliable power forward options tonight. Ibaka is the most expensive at just $5,900, and every player at the position is capable of dropping a complete dud. Even a solid 25 fantasy point performance from Ibaka could be enough to make him the clear top play, so you’ll want exposure to him facing a Rockets team that is going to drastically pace the Magic up.
Center: Clint Capela, Houston Rockets, $5,100
I suppose you could throw Bismack Biyombo or Nikola Vucevic in some lineups, but I’m more interested in Capela. He’s played over 30 minutes in each of Houston’s last two games and should feast whenever the defensively-challenged Vucevic is on the court. He has much more upside relative to his price than either Magic center, and the fast pace at which Houston plays suits him well. He’ll likely be high-owned, so you should look to get exposure to some other guys, but I firmly believe he has the best floor/ceiling combination tonight.