NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, January 18th
Tonight presents us with a large nine-game slate to attack. We have two teams (Toronto and Houston) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams who I feel should be downgraded.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel, so I can take advantage of the better pricing. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: John Wall, Washington Wizards, $8,600
Wall’s price tonight has come down and we get a $500 discount on DK tonight. The matchup may not look ideal as Memphis is second in the league in defensive efficiency, but I’m hoping this will drive down his ownership tonight. If you click the NBA Defense vs. Position tool and then the tab four weeks, you will see that over the last month of play the Grizzlies have given up the 12th-most fantasy points allowed and have been playing up in pace. He’s capable of going off in this matchup and has a 34.5 True Usage %, the third highest at the point guard position tonight. Hopefully, he will see Mike Conley defense which is a favorable matchup and add in the fact that he averages close to five DK points more at home, makes me very comfortable with Wall tonight.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets, $11,700
I really want to attack this game with a 226–point total. Harden is the main guy here and I’ll take the small $100 discount on DK where we can take advantage of the double-double, triple-double, and three point bonuses as well as save a half-point on each turnover. Harden is on a back-to-back where he actually significantly outperforms his salary-based expectation over a decent sample size. When it comes down to choosing whether to play Harden, if we have value on the slate then I usually lock him in. The amount of touches he sees per game and his 38.8 True Usage % is just plain ridiculous.
Small Forward: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks, $7,100
I really love this game and my must have player for the Bucks is Jabari. We get a $400 discount on DK and I love that he is small forward eligible. He’s in an extremely positive matchup against Houston, currently ranked 29th in DVP vs. the power forward position and allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks. This is a significant pace up spot, as Houston is fourth in the league in pace. He should have a high floor with plenty of upside tonight.
Power Forward: Kyle O’Quinn, New York Knicks, $4,100
I will probably take heat for this recommendation, but that’s just fine with me. Porzingis has been ruled out and Noah is questionable for tonight. That leaves the Knicks very thin in the frontcourt and we can expect extra minutes for Kyle who is a player who averages over a fantasy point per minute. We get a $500 discount on DK and he gets a dream matchup against my Celtics squad, currently ranked 17th and 23rd vs. the power forward and center positions, respectively. The Celtics are the third-worst rebounding team in the league and O’Quinn is just the type of player who can dominate inside against them. He’s averaging close to 25 DK points per game over his last five and flashed upside by going for 41.75 in just 24 minutes against the 76ers.
Center: Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic, $6,600
Centers in general are priced too low on DK and we get a nice $600 discount compared to FanDuel for Vucevic. He’s back in the starting lineup and seeing a nice increase in minutes and production. He gets a nice matchup with New Orleans, currently ranked 19th in DVP vs. the center position, and he’s played well in just about every career matchup with Anthony Davis and is averaging 43 DK points per game over his last three games vs. New Orleans. He’s in great form, averaging 40 DK points over his last five games, so we should take advantage of his nice price that surely will rise soon.