NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, January 25th
Tonight presents us with a large 10-game slate to attack. We have four teams (Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Toronto) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams who I feel should be downgraded.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors, $8,500
Curry’s price is priced $400 lower on DK today, and I think he’s in a very sneaky spot tonight, considering there are so many other studs available on a ten game slate. First off, this game has the highest projected pace and the second-highest total (222.5 points) on the slate, so I definitely want a piece of this game. At first glance the spot looks average, as Charlotte currently ranks 13th in DVP vs. the point guard position, but if you dig a little deeper you will find that Charlotte allows the most three pointers made per game in the league. The also rank 25th in three point attempts to the point guard position, where Curry derives most of his value and shoots an efficient 40.1% from three. I’ll take the three-point bonus and lower price on DK; look for a big game from the man who’s starting over Westbrook in the All-Star game and may feel some added pressure to justify that.
Shooting Guard: Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets, $5,300
We really need a piece of this game with a 228.5–point total – the highest on the slate. Yes, James Harden should have a big game here, and I won’t blame you for playing him, but we can’t afford everyone, and with Gordon’s price falling we get a $400 discount on DK and also can take advantage of the three point bonus. Boston is not the same defense this year, and they are even worse with Avery Bradley sidelined. They currently rank 24th in DVP vs. the shooting guard position and have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to the shooting guard position over the last month. Gordon should comfortably see close to 30 minutes in this game, and I like his prospects of paying off against Boston, who’s on the second half of a back-to-back.
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, $10,000
If you know me you know that I love a good narrative in the NBA, so an angry LeBron who just called out all of his teammates is right up my alley. We get a $700 discount on DK, can take advantage of all the bonuses, and get to take advantage of Sacramento being so thin at small forward since they lost Rudy Gay. The Kings give up plenty of points to small forwards from the three and we can expect an increase in steals and blocks for this position, playing right into LeBron’s game. Add in his 30.61 Usage %, slightly higher home/road splits, and the game’s 216-point total, and I will happily be plugging King James in tonight.
Power Forward: Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks, $7,800
One thing I definitely noticed last night was that Orlando’s game plan was to exploit Chicago at the power forward position by feeding Nikola Vucevic in the post and letting him go to work. I expect the Hawks should do the same and am giving an upgrade to Millsap who gets them on the second half of a back-to-back. We get a $500 discount on DK and the opportunity for bonus points! The matchup is great, as the Bulls rank 19th in DVP vs. the power forward position, but also get killed in the paint at the position and rank in the bottom half for allowing rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks to the power forward position. I think we will get him at low ownership in this great matchup tonight, and he is definitely one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Center: Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets, $6,300
Centers in general are priced too low on DK and we get a nice $1,000 discount on DK for Lopez tonight. The matchup isn’t the greatest, but it’s not exactly bad either. The Nets are just four-point home underdogs against the Heat in a game with a 215-point total. I expect this game to remain competitive, and the Nets will most likely need Lopez on the court to guard Whiteside, who can be had on the defensive end of the floor as we’ve seen a huge game from Drummond against him. Lopez is averaging over 23 points and seven rebounds historically in the four games they have met. We would also have to go back to January 6th (in a game vs. the Cavs) to find a game in which Lopez scored less than 30 DK points if given at least 24 minutes. I expect him to easily pay off his salary tonight.