NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 9th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today, we’ll take a look at the Defense vs. Position cheat sheet to give us a look at what players might be in favorable matchups tonight. I will also add a sneak peek at our incentives Daily Matchups Charts to further break down one of the plays.
It’s a fun nine game Wednesday slate, so let’s get down to business! Salaries for today are taken from FanDuel.
Point Guard – Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers – $10,000
In a rematch of a fun game a week ago, we have Chris Paul facing off against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. Westbrook is not a premier defender, and it shows in Oklahoma City’s 24th ranked defense against opposing point guards. Paul is the engine that runs the Clipper offense, and he should have a nice game in the rematch. After struggling early in that game, Paul still finished with a nice line of 21 points, four rebounds, and 13 assists in the last meeting. He has a nice, safe floor for your cash games and significant upside for your GPP’s in a favorable matchup on this Wednesday night.
Shooting Guard – Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets – $6,700
New Orleans has had one of the worst defenses in the league all year long, and they rank among the five worst teams in the league at defending opposing shooting guards. Their lack of depth in the backcourt is likely going to hurt them even more on that end of the floor, too. Batum provides a mismatch for any of the perimeter players the Pelicans can throw at him, and he is still available at a nice discount for a guy that has 40 fantasy point upside. After a rough stretch in late February, he has figured it out over the last three games. Charlotte is fighting for a playoff spot, so the minutes will be there. There is a lot to like about Batum tonight.
Small Forward – Hollis Thompson, Philadelphia 76ers – $3,700
Targeting any cheap players on the Sixers is always a risky proposition, but the team is awfully banged up right now. They have been without Kendall Marshall, Nik Stauskas, Jahlil Okafor, and Nerlens Noel for the last week, and the team has no incentive to rush them back into action. Thompson has been one of the primary beneficiaries of these injuries, logging 31 and 37 minutes over the last two games. He remains dirt cheap on FanDuel at $3,800, and the Sixers’ forwards are in a good spot at home against a porous Rockets defense tonight. Houston ranks dead last in the league at defending both forward positions, so Thompson is in a good spot here. Especially if the other four players listed above all remain out, Thompson is one of the better values on the board this evening.
Power Forward – Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,800
Cleveland is on the first game of a back-to-back road set, so there is some worry about them resting a player or two tonight. The good news is that they are still trying to fend off Toronto for the top overall seed in the Eastern Conference. Assuming everyone plays, I like the prospects for the “big three” tonight. If any of the big three sit, then you can massively upgrade the other two. They draw a favorable matchup here against a Kings team that plays at a very fast pace, and Cleveland should score points at will in this game. Sacramento ranks better than only the aforementioned Rockets at defending the power forward spot, making Love an intriguing target at a now discounted price point.
As you can see, our incentives matchup charts also like Kevin Love tonight. When you combine his depressed price point with a good matchup, he has the top weighted average dollars per point value at the position. That filter is a nice way to easily identify the top plays based on price and matchup (the ones highlighted in blue background color). Assuming he plays, it’s hard to see Love struggling against the Kings.
Center – Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets – $7,900
While most players will likely gravitate toward James Harden, we must not forget about Dwight Howard. He is available at a much cheaper price tag than his teammate, and he draws a great matchup tonight.
Philadelphia has struggled against big men all year long, ranking dead last in the league against the center position. Their struggles are even more pronounced given the lack of depth they currently have up front. Is Carl Landry going to be able to stop a healthy Dwight Howard? How about Richaun Holmes? I don’t think so.