NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, November 2nd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Tonight’s slate is a tough one. We have ten games to target, but nine teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back, making things tricky.
Today, I’m going to identify players by just giving a quick look at the Vegas Odds and Lines tool to identify some obvious spots to attack as well as some that may go overlooked. Below are some of my favorite plays of the night that I was able to help identify using the chart below.
Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets, $7,500
Looking at tonight’s over/under totals there are some obvious high scoring games we should look to target and the Hornets game is one of the lowest with a 195.5 over/under. However, if we list by projected points the Hornets have the 9th highest implied team total of 104 projected points (just 5.25 points lower than Houston) and may go overlooked. The 76ers are allowing the 2nd most points per game to point guards and Kemba has great home vs. road splits. Point Guard is stacked tonight and there are some other great plays, like Tim Frazier, but I will be all over Kemba in a great spot that many will be avoiding.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets, $11,200
Harden is the GOAT. Last night he dropped 41 points with 15 assists! The only concern is that he played last night, but Harden doesn’t historically see much decline in stats on B2Bs. This is one of the obvious games to target with the total currently at 217 (the highest total of the night). Studs love to put on a show in Madison Square Garden, so Harden with his almost 50% true usage percentage will be a core play of mine tonight.
Small Forward: Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics, $5,600
The Celtics game has the 5th highest over/under and the 6th highest implied team total. They are also a little banged up. Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas are both questionable to play, so I think Boston will rely on Crowder for more offense than usual. He is a stat stuffer with the peripherals and makes for a great play at a bargain price.
Power Forward: Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks, $7,200
As mentioned before, this game has the highest total of the night and Houston have been allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game at the power forward position – which I expect to be the highest shortly. Kristaps currently has around a 29% true usage percentage and had two monster games against the Rockets last season – one of which he had 24-pts, 14-rebs, and 7 blocks. I think he gets a ton of minutes tonight and is in a prime matchup to go off.
Center: Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, $6,100
Disclaimer: Look to fit in Anthony Davis, but if you can’t consider Marc Gasol. The Grizzlies have the have the 7th highest implied team total of 106.25 projected points. He sat out last night and should be well rested and ready for good load of minutes. He gets a great matchup with a Omer Asik and a tired Pelicans squad. Gasol has a high floor, decent ceiling, and a nice price.