NBA Trend Blend: Friday, November 25th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
14
Highest O/U
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers – 230
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers- 218.5
Lowest O/U
Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies – 187
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 121.75
Indiana Pacers – 112.5
Lowest Projected Total
Miami Heat – 90
Dallas Mavericks – 93
Largest Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers: 15-point home favorites over Dallas Mavericks
Closest Spread
Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks: 1-point spread
Thoughts on the slate
Yesterday, my seven-months pregnant wife and I traveled from Oklahoma to New Hampshire with our one-year-old son. It was quite a day. We arrived late last night and got caught up on sleep. I snuck away into the basement to work on this article as my siblings, nephews and nieces are hanging out and enjoying each other’s company. I generally take three to four hours to prepare this article for you three days a week, but that isn’t a realistic option for me today. Instead, I will do my best to come up with a beneficial compromise so that you can get some helpful bits of information and so I don’t catch too much flack for locking myself away from my family. Let’s see what we can do!
Positive Situations
This is a massive slate with 13 games. Nine of the games currently feature a spread of five points or less. Six of those nine games feature an O/U of 209 or above. These are the games that should draw a lot of our focus as they will be the games that are most likely to feature fantasy goodness. Of those games, here are some of my favorite plays that have a top 12 DvP matchup, a positive pace influencer and a positive DRtg/A scenario.
PG
Russell Westbrook
Damian LIllard
Tim Frazier
Jrue Holiday
Darren Collison
SG
James Harden
Nicolas Batum
Zach LaVine
Nicolas Batum
C.J. McCollum
Victor Oladipo
SF
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Andrew Wiggins
Wilson Chandler
C
Whoever starts at C for the New York Knicks
Jonas Valanciunas
Alex Len
Karl Anthony-Towns
Mason Plumlee
Other Notable Spots
Now, here are some plays in other games with similarly good trends, but with riskier game projections.
PG
Rajon Rondo
Kyrie Irving
Stephen Curry
Jeff Teague
Jordan Clarkson
SF
Jimmy Butler
Kevin Durant
Paul George
C
Marcin Gortat
Myles Turner
Brook Lopez
Please please comment here or tweet me with any questions about specifics. I wish I had time to dive in and breakdown every situation as usual, but I can’t do that today. However, if you comment or tweet me with a specific question or thought, I’ll be more than happy to answer that to the best of my ability. Good luck today!