NBA Trend Blend: Friday, November 4th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Nine
Highest O/U
Golden State @ Los Angeles Lakers – 228
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans – 211.5
Lowest O/U
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz – 184
Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies – 197
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 119.5
Chicago Bulls – 109
Lowest Projected Total
Utah Jazz – 89.75
San Antonio Spurs – 94.25
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 11-point road favorites over Los Angeles Lakers
Closest Spread
Washington Wizards – 1.5-point home favorites over Atlanta Hawks
Point Guard
Favorites
Tim Frazier ($6,400 DK – $5,500 FD) – While the price is climbing, I still see Frazier as a top play this evening (even at his elevated price point on DK – on FD, he’s an extremely strong play). Last season, the Phoenix Suns ranked dead last in PG DvP – so far this season, the Suns rank dead last in PG DvP. Last season, the Suns ranked 24th in DRtg/A – this season they rank in the lower half as well (and falling). The Suns are also playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA this season, with the Pelicans not far behind in sixth place. This is what The NBA Trend Blend is all about – finding the plays that make the most sense based on a variety of trends and statistics, which leads us to actionable information for our daily NBA process. Frazier is in an extremely good spot. Some may worry about the low minutes in his last game, but the entire starting unit got off to a bad start in the last outing, which gave the bench more run. Fire Frazier up with confidence tonight (especially on FD).
John Wall ($8,500 DK – $9,000 FD) – Wall has quietly gotten off to a scorching start. It appears that Scott Brooks is going to continue an up-tempo style with the Wizards, as they currently own the ninth fastest pace in the NBA. Wall owns the highest usage of any starting PG at 35.91, and he is facing the Atlanta Hawks tonight, who have thus far struggled to contain opposing PG’s (28th in PG DvP). While the Hawks grade out positively in team defense, defending the PG is their weakness. With this game featuring the closest spread of the night, I see a lot of minutes and a lot of back and forth basketball in this spot. With Wall’s usage rate and his matchup, this is a spot that I want to exploit.
Others worth mentioning
Kemba Walker
D’Angelo Russell
Derrick Rose – revenge game?
J.J. Barea
Whoever starts for Brooklyn at close to minimum salary
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Nicolas Batum ($6,600 DK – $6,400 FD) – Batum had gotten off to a slow start this season, but he seems to be finding his groove. The Hornets are road favorites as they head to Brooklyn this evening, and with a spread of 6.5 and a team total of 106.25, this looks like a sneaky good spot to attack. Batum is a guy who can rack up points across the board. He doesn’t need 25 real points to have a good fantasy outing. The Nets have ranked in the bottom six at SG DvP since last season, and there’s no reason for optimism for change in that category. Brooklyn is also playing at a top ten pace on the young season, despite several pace down matchups, which should lead to extra opportunities for Batum to stuff the stat sheet. Last season, the Nets ranked 29th in DRtg/A. Batum is in a great spot to meet and exceed value tonight, especially on FD where you have to roster two SG’s.
Wesley Matthews ($5,000 DK & FD) – Wes Matthews is not a fun player to roster, and he often leads to nights of crying ones self to sleep (been there, thanks Wes), but he’s cheap, and he’s in a nice spot. Let me address the revenge game narrative – Last season in three games against his former team, Matthews had point totals of 18, 15 and 22 to go along with a combined 14 3PM. Portland meanwhile has been perfectly average against opposing SG’s over the last two years, but they do own the 27th ranked DRtg/A in the NBA this season, which is in part due to their fourth fastest pace. So, we have a pace up game with an average DvP spot against a bottom four DRtg/A rated defense, plus the revenge narrative (which isn’t always real, but I believe in it here). Once you factor in price and usage, this becomes a strong play in cash and GPP.
Others worth mentioning
DeMar DeRozan
Buddy Hield
Small Forward
Favorites
T.J. Warren ($6,300 DK – $5,900 FD) – The price is rising like the Sun(s) (stop it, Collin – you’re not funny), but even at this price point, I like Warren to crush value tonight. The Pelicans aren’t an elite defense (26th ranked in DRtg/A last season), and both teams play at a fast pace (second and sixth in pace), which bodes well. Furthermore, Warren owns a very strong USG of 23.73 in a game where he should have a few more opportunities that usual. This game features the second highest O/U on the slate, and there is little risk of a blowout in either direction with a spread of just three points. Warren should once again crush value against the Pelicans and their 47.62 DK FPTS allowed to SF’s per game (fourth worst).
Others worth mentioning
Kevin Durant
Jimmy Butler
Lance Stephenson
Metta World Peace (just kidding)
Power Forward
Favorites
Anthony Davis ($10,900 DK – $11,200 FD) – Brow is coming off of two disappointing performances in his last three games, which may keep his ownership down a bit. Make no mistake, when the matchup is there, Brow is going to crush (with the assumption that he doesn’t get a boo boo and is able to play the whole game). I’ve already addressed the reasons that we should like this game, but I’ll be more specific to Brow in this analysis. The Suns present the tenth best PF DvP matchup on the board, and both teams are going to continue pushing the pace as they have all season thus far. Brow thrives in these types of games, and should have no trouble racking up points. One potential downside is that the Suns are an above average rebounding team, while the Pelicans are the worst rebounding team in the NBA so far. With that said, Brow is still averaging nearly 12 boards per game.
Larry Nance ($4,000 DK – $3,900 FD) – Larry who? Larry “I’m averaging 28 minutes per game and 30 FPTS over my last two games with Mozgov limited or out,” that’s who. I’m pretty sure that I broke some rules of grammar with that sentence, but sometimes, great fantasy analysis trumps the rules of grammar. #AmIRight? Oops, I did it again (Brittney). Really going off the rails here… And more grammatical mistakes (sorry @JMToWin).
Anyways, Timofey Mozgov is expected to miss once again, and Nance has been the primary beneficiary to Mozgov missing. Nance has showed off some extremely impressive athleticism while collecting points, rebounds, blocks and steals. Both the Lakers and the Warriors play at a fast pace, and Nance should have ample opportunity to meet value at his low price point. I can’t say that the DvP matchup against Dray is appealing, but Nance really shouldn’t see a ton of Dray. He will likely see minutes against a number of Warriors (depending on if they go small or not) such as Dray, KD, Zaza, Kevon Looney, James Michael McAdoo and others. The fast pace and the high O/U of this game appeal greatly to me. Furthermore, the blowout risk concerns me a lot less when a player costs 4k and should get good run regardless of outcome. He can be on the court if the Warriors play small-ball as well. Nance is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
Others worth mentioning
Paul Millsap
Taj Gibson
Center
Favorites
Dwight Howard ($7,700 DK – $8,300 FD) – Simply put, Dwight is playing motivated basketball so far this season. We often hear that a player is rejuvenated and charged up in a new setting, but Dwight has fooled us before. This year, Dwight is actually playing excellent basketball and has been highly involved on both ends of the court. The Wizards currently own the second worst DRtg/A in the NBA this season, and they present an above average Center DvP matchup. In the three games that Dwight has seen 30 or more minutes of action, he has at least 41.8 DK FPTS and no fewer than 38.7 FD points. Dwight also owns the fourth highest USG rate among all starting Centers this season at 22.65. Meanwhile, both the Hawks and Wizards play at a top 12 pace. Given the expected back and forth nature of this game, I want at least a piece or two, and Dwight brings a rock solid floor and a high ceiling.
Tyson Chandler ($4,400 DK – $4,500 FD) – Chandler should see minutes in the upper 20’s again tonight, which is more than enough time for him to meet value. I’m probably not as interested in him in GPP (as his ceiling isn’t as lofty as other options), but his floor should be well worth the cash game investment tonight. The Pelicans struggle defensively and they especially struggle against opposing big men. As addressed in the Anthony Davis section of this article, the Pelicans rank dead last in the NBA in rebound differential, which should allow a guy like Chandler to feast on the boards tonight. Chandler has two games of 18 rebounds and has double-digit boards in four of five games. He’s not likely to put up 20 real life points, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit or exceed 30 FPTS in this up-tempo matchup.
Others worth mentioning
Hassan Whiteside
Jonas Valanciunas
Tendencies To Exploit
As much as we like to target games with high O/Us, it is a great idea to target games with decent O/Us and close spreads. Those types of games often lead to extended minutes and opportunity, and sometimes those plays come at lower ownership as well.
Give me and RotoGrinders a shout out on twitter if/when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.