NBA Trend Blend: Friday, October 28th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Point Guard
Favorites
Tim Frazier – Frazier wound up being a sub plot to the monstrous stat line that Anthony Davis put up in the Pelicans opener, but make no mistake; Frazier was excellent. There were questions about reliability in the minute department, but coach Alvin Gentry seemed to answer those for us. As of now, this game has the second highest over/under on the slate. The Pelicans played at a very fast pace (111 possessions) in their opener, and will likely be in a pace up spot here against the Warriors. While Steph Curry is also an attractive option tonight (and most every night that he’s playing), he doesn’t excel on the defensive end. In fact, the Warriors ranked 26th in point guard DvP. As a team, the Warriors still figure to be in the upper echelon of DRtg/A, but this is certainly an exploitable spot. Frazier still represents solid value as well, sitting at 5.4k on DraftKings and 5.3k on FanDuel.
Deron Williams – I feel like a piece of my soul just went up in flames as I typed that name. It feels dirty and wrong, but at this point in the season we can (hopefully) count on Deron staying on the court. There is a ton to like for D-Will in this spot. As of this moment, the Mavericks own the second highest implied team total on the slate. As we also know, Mike D’Antoni coached teams don’t really emphasize defense, and James Harden certainly doesn’t emphasize defense (regardless of coach). The Mavericks will be in a pace up spot tonight against last years 22nd ranked team in terms of DRtg/A (and that number is only expected to get worse this year). Deron is another solid value at 5.7k on DraftKings and 6.4k on FanDuel.
Others worth mentioning
George Hill
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Eric Bledsoe
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Disclaimer – If James Harden is on the slate he needs to be considered. I’m going to try to uncover other helpful plays at the position, but Harden is almost always going to be towards to top of the list here.
Victor Oladipo – The price isn’t cheap on Oladipo (6.6k DK – 7k on FD), which makes him more of a GPP play for me, but allow me to make a case for him. Oladipo saw a surprisingly few amount of minutes in the opener, but I expect him to see plenty of the court tonight, primarily due to his defensive prowess. He’s the best fit (along with Andre Roberson who should mostly see T.J. Warren) to guard Devin Booker tonight. The Suns were ranked 24th in DRtg/A last season, and that doesn’t look like it’s going to be improving any time soon. Furthermore, the Suns ranked 28th in shooting guard DvP last year. Oladipo should fly under the radar, and I like him to bounce back tonight at low ownership.
Others worth mentioning
Klay Thompson
Wesley Matthews
I’ll Pass
Devin Booker – Booker struggled in his season debut against the Kings, primarily due to early foul trouble. The Thunder did own the 22nd ranked DvP against shooting guards last season, but that was before Oladipo. Booker could certainly bounce back, but there are better spots on the board at SG.
Small Forward
Favorites
Kevin Durant – KD got off 18 shots in a blowout loss to the Spurs on opening night, and while we’d like to see that number rise, he did a lot to contribute to his overall stat line including ten rebounds, four assists, and two blocks and two steals apiece. The Warriors are ten point favorites tonight, and are in an excellent spot for some fantasy goodness. The Pelicans ranked 26th in DRtg/A last season, and both teams play at a quick pace. While the Pelicans were respectable in defending opposing small forwards last season, not all small forwards are created equal. KD is long and athletic and poses a mismatch for just about anyone. His price is also extremely palatable for the upside that he brings both on DK at 9.6k and on FD at 9.3k.
Harrison Barnes – I’m sorry. I have that sickening feeling again. Almost no DFS player likes taking Harrison Barnes on their roster, but we should consider him tonight, regardless of the urge that we suddenly all feel to go puke in a toilet. This game features the highest O/U on the slate, and it should be action packed from start to finish. Barnes is going to get plenty of minutes and plenty of usage tonight. His price is not cheap (5.9k on DK – 5.1k on FD), but it isn’t unreasonable. The defense of Trevor Ariza may still concern some, but it shouldn’t. The Rockets ranked dead last in DvP against SF’s last season. What is the name of this article again? The NBA Trend Blend? Yeah, that’s it. Pace – check. DvP- check. DRtg/A – check. Usage – check. In my best David S. Pumpkins voice – “Any questions?”
Others worth mentioning
LeBron James
Paul George
Trevor Ariza
Power Forward
Favorites
What I said above for James Harden also applies to Anthony Davis. If he’s on the slate (and not being held together by duct tape, which may actually be all the time), he should be in consideration. His matchup is not ideal tonight, but he’s an athletic freak with range and power. He’s certainly in play if you can stomach the ever-present injury risk, but let’s move on.
Trevor Booker – This play may seemingly fly in from out of nowhere, but we need some value on this slate, and Booker presents us with a reliable floor. The Pacers defended the PF position well last season, but that was before Thaddeus Young. Thad presents us with a positive matchup. The Nets played at a fast pace against the Celtics on their opening night, and Booker contributed across the board with eight points, seven boards, five assists and three steals in just 24 minutes of action. While the minutes aren’t encouraging, the production certainly was. If we can see Booker’s minutes climb up near 30 minutes, he should be in for another nice stat line. Even at 25 minutes, he should have ample opportunity for meeting value. The DvP matchup is solid against Thad Young, the pace is respectable and the price (4.3k on DK – 4.9k on FD) is attractive as well. This game also features the third highest O/U of the slate.
Others worth mentioning
Draymond Green
Ryan Anderson
Dirk Nowitzki
Center
Favorites
Hassan Whiteside – You’re not going to find a much better DvP matchup than facing Roy Hibbert. Last season, the Lakers (Hibbert’s former employer) allowed the fourth most points to centers all season. Both the Heat and Hornets prefer to play at a slower pace when possible, but I’m willing to overlook that tonight for a few reasons – Whiteside was consistently limited in minutes last season, but with the Heat frontcourt sitting thin in talent and healthy bodies, I expect Whiteside to get some extra run this year. Also, Whiteside can put up a monster game in one half of action, so he’s an exception to the rule in that sense. The Hornets were one of the better teams last season in terms of DRtg/A, but again, that was before Hibbert. Fire up Whiteside tonight (8.3k on DK – 8.5k on FD). Also, I don’t hate Hibbert as a GPP punt.
Myles Turner – Oh hey there Myles. While an overtime game boosted the overall stat line, there’s no denying that Turner is in line for a big season, and he’s still a reasonable bargain overall (7.1k on DK – 6.9k on FD). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him priced over 8k on both main sites before long. The Nets finished last season with the 29th ranked DRtg/A and came in ranked 25th in center DvP. Brooklyn also played at a faster pace in the opener than they did last season. While that may be a factor of playing Boston, it is encouraging nonetheless. BroLo and the Nets frontcourt are vulnerable, and Turner seems primed to continue his breakout campaig. I’ll be firing him up at this price for as long as I can.
Others worth mentioning
Rudy Gobert
Andre Drummond
Roy Hibbert
Tendencies To Exploit
Pay attention to Over/Under and spread – So many DFS players simply tend to look at the OPRK ranking next to players names, but one simple way to gain an edge is to look at Vegas implied team totals and spreads. Target games with high O/U’s and close spreads. We can also find low owned/overlooked value in lower O/U’s with close spreads. Put in the time, and gain that edge!
I welcome your thoughts and feedback as we look to make this article something useful for you throughout the NBA season.