NBA Trend Blend: Monday, December 12th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Seven
Highest O/U
Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets – 229
Lowest O/U
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – 201.5
Highest Projected Total
Houston Rockets – 122
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 100
Largest Spread
Houston Rockets – 14.5-point favorites over Brooklyn nets
Closest Spread
Washington Wizards – 1-point favorites over Miami Heat
Point Guard
Favorites
Darren Collison ($4,900 DK – $5,500 FD) – There are a number of high priced PG options that are strong plays, but I’ll use this space to focus on two appealing cheaper options today. Collison is a viable play on both sites tonight as he takes on the Lakers. LAL currently ranks 25th in PG DvP and 27th in DRtg/A. Collison has disappointed in his facilitating stats this year, as he rarely collects more than five assists, but he may be in line for an uptick tonight as the Lakers allow the most assists to the PG position in the NBA. The main reasons that I like Collison tonight is the Vegas projections and the pace up aspect of this game. The Kings have the third highest projected total on the slate and the spread is close enough that we ought to see a competitive game. Furthermore, the Lakers rank sixth in overall pace. Pace serves to benefit guards the most, and Collison should be able to take advantage of his cheap price tag in a great matchup tonight.
Patrick Beverley ($4,900 DK – $5,100 FD) – Beverley has been excellent lately, and hardly anyone is talking about him. All of the focus is on James Harden, and he’s been deserving of that attention, but Beverley needs to be on our radar tonight as well. In his last six games, Beverley has averaged 30 minutes and has reached 5x value in all six. We shouldn’t expect 20 real points, but Beverley has flashed 45-fantasy point upside recently (in a similarly good matchup against the Lakers). This game has some very real blowout risk, but Beverley has seen solid minutes regardless of game flow recently. The Nets ranks are as follows – dead last in PG Dvp – they allow the most assists and rebounds to opposing PGs – they play at the second fastest pace in the NBA – they rank 28th in DRtg/A. Beverley is a great cash game play and could even be used in GPPs.
Others worth mentioning
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Chris Paul
Kyle Lowry
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Wesley Matthews ($5,600 DK – $5,700 FD) – Matthew is often an infuriating player to roster because he is capable of putting up massive duds. Lately however, Wes has proven to be capable of putting up big games too as he has scored 26 real life points in four of his last seven. In real life points alone, that’s 5x value at his current price in four of his last seven games. We need to consider him, even at his escalating salary. Matthews has been averaged more than 15 FGAs per game over that stretch of games, and he gets a prime matchup tonight. The Nuggets rank 29th in SG DvP and are well below average in DRtg/A. This is also an extreme pace up game for the Mavericks as the Nuggets rank third in pace. Another major draw is the fact that Vegas projects the Mavericks to score eight points above their season average tonight. Wes has been a major source of value over the last two weeks, and there is no reason that he shouldn’t continue that in a home game against Denver tonight.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Lou Williams
DeMar DeRozan
Nicolas Batum – DK
Small Forward
Favorites
Paul George ($8,300 DK – $8,500 FD) – George brings a high floor/high ceiling combo any time he takes the floor, including tonight. There is a bit of risk here because of the capable defenders that Charlotte can throw at him, but the Hornets actually rank 24th in SF DvP. MKG and Batum could potentially slow him down a bit, but George has been extremely aggressive lately and has seen an elite amount of minutes en route to collecting two double-doubles in his last four games. The Hornets allow a ton of peripheral stats to opposing SFs as well, as they allow top ten assists and rebounds there. The spread here is one of the closest of the night and the totals are solid as well. Look for George to continue his aggressive play in this spot tonight.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,300 DK – $4,600 FD) – Bojan is a scoring dependent player, but he’s been lighting it up lately. The Rockets are below average in SF DvP and 22nd in DRtg/A. The Rockets also allow among the most 3PM to SFs in the NBA. Bojan takes about five 3PAs per game, and should be able to knock some down tonight. If the Nets are going to have any chance of staying competitive tonight, it’ll come down to their perimeter shooting. Bogdanovic is still a great value and has been smashing value in his last six games. Hop on board.
Others worth mentioning
Rudy Gay
Harrison Barnes
DeMarre Carroll
Sam Dekker
Power Forward
Favorites
Julius Randle ($6,300 DK – $6,400 FD) – Randle has been seeing an uptick in minutes recently, including seeing minutes at the five. Tarik Black’s recent absence has allowed Randle get that extra run, and if Black is Out as is expected, Randle represents a great play tonight (he’s still in play even if Black can suit up). The Kings rank 28th in PF DvP and are below average in DRtg/A. Randle has double-doubled in three of his last four games, and should have an excellent shot at another one tonight. Julius has flashed some excellent passing ability this season, and the Kings allow the second most assists to the PF position. I really like Randle’s chances of reaching 5x tonight, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get to 6-7x salary tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Blake Griffin – if healthy
Marreese Speights – If Blake can’t play
Center
Favorites
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900 DK – $11,000 FD) – Boogie will cost us a pretty penny tonight, but the spot is awfully appealing. The Lakers struggle mightily against opposing big men, and they are likely going to be thin in the frontcourt once again tonight. Cousins owns the second highest USG on the slate tonight (behind Harden) at 34.94. Outside of his recent dud against a tough Jazz frontcourt, Boogie has exceeded 50 FPTS in eight straight games. He’s my favorite priced option on the slate tonight.
DeAndre Jordan ($6,500 DK – $6,900 FD) – DeAndre gets one of the best matchups possible tonight against the Trail Blazers who rank 27th in DvP against Cs. Much of DeAndre’s value comes from rebounding, and Portland is ranked 25th in rebounding differential, which should allow Jordan to have his way on the glass tonight. Prior to playing only 23 minutes in a blowout last game, DeAndre had collected double-digit rebound totals in six straight games. In his last six games against Portland, DJ has four double-doubles and a low rebound total of nine and a high rebound total of 24. Jordan gets a boost tonight if Blake can’t go.
Others worth mentioning
Hassan Whiteside
Brook Lopez
Nikola Jokic
Clint Capela
Jonas Valanciunas
Tendencies To Exploit
It’s always a good idea to check box scores from the last week or so to check on coaching trends. Player minutes can fluctuate and rotations can shift. Stay one step ahead by keeping tabs on player rotations, injuries and increases/decreases in playing time.
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