NBA Trend Blend: Monday, December 5th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
11
Highest O/U
Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors – 226
Lowest O/U
Charlotte Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks – 190.5
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors 120.75
Washington Wizards – 112.5
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 93.25
Charlotte Hornets – 97.25
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 15.5-point favorites over Indiana Pacers
Closest Spread
Toronto Raptors – 1.5-point favorites over Cleveland Cavaliers
Point Guard
Favorites
John Wall ($8,900 DK – $9,300 FD) – Wall is just about the safest play on the board at a sub 10k price point. Everything lines up in his favor with this matchup against the Nets. First off, this game features the second highest O/U of the slate with the Wizards being 5.5-point favorites. The total is excellent and the spread is close as well. Wall has double doubled in three straight games, and should have very little resistance tonight. The Nets represent the most favorable DvP matchup at the PG position along with having the third worst DRtg/A and the second fastest pace in the NBA. Brooklyn also allows the most rebounds per game to opposing PGs and the third most assists to opposing PGs per game. Everything in this spot is pointing to a massive floor and a high ceiling for Wall tonight. He’s a strong cash game play and a solid GPP play as well.
Dennis Schroder ($6,100 DK – $6,000 FD) – We’ll continue with our theme of taking the starting point guard opposite of Russell Westbrook. Russ and the Thunder represent the fourth most favorable DvP matchup at the position, and OKC also represents a massive pace up spot for the Hawks. Schroder is coming off of two straight games with 25 or less minutes, which should reduce his ownership tonight. Of those two games, both were blowout losses with the bench getting extended run. The Hawks are 4.5-point home favorites in this game, and thus are expected to be competitive in this game. Schroder should see 30 minutes in this game, which will be more than enough for him to meet value against Russ and the Thunder. Also worth noting is that Steven Adams may not suit up tonight, and he represents OKC’s best defender in the paint. If he’s out, Schroder and the guards may have an easier time of finishing in the paint.
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Damian Lillard
Isaiah Thomas
Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Rodney Hood ($5,400 DK – $5,500 FD) – Hood finds himself in a great spot tonight. The Lakers currently rank 29th in SG DvP and 27th in DRtg/A. With George Hill already ruled out for tonight’s game, Hood will take on a bit more usage along with Gordon Hayward. Ultimately, this spot is great for both guys, but Hood is cheap and can help us in roster flexibility. Hood takes five to seven three point attempts per game, and the Lakers struggle with containing perimeter scorers. The Lakers have been playing at a much faster tempo lately, and now find themselves in the top ten in pace, which makes this even more favorable for the Utah guards. Hood represents great value, and should have no problem reaching 5x tonight.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Avery Bradley
Bradley Beal
Victor Oladipo
Sean Kilpatrick
Will Barton
Small Forward
Favorites
Kawhi Leonard ($8,000 DK – $8,100 FD) Kawhi has seen his price plummet lately, and now is the time to take advantage. The matchup against the Bucks is excellent as Milwaukee ranks 26th in SF DvP and below average in DRtg/A. Kawhi’s price has dropped because his production has been down, particularly in peripheral categories. However, the Bucks allow opposing SFs to collect top ten numbers in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. Kawhi should be able to rack up some extra peripheral stats tonight. Furthermore, the Spurs play in Milwaukee tonight and are a modest 5.5-point favorite. This game should stay competitive, and Leonard is a sneaky good bet to crush value tonight.
Wilson Chandler ($6,600 DK – $6,400 FD) – It’s not easy to feel great about a player who comes off the bench, but Chandler defies that rule as his season low in minutes is 24. The 76ers rank 29th in SF DvP, and 26th in DRtg/A. Chandler is averaging more than 17 FGAs per game in his last five matches, and is a reliable source of peripheral stats as well. Philadelphia also allows opposing SFs to bring in top three numbers in rebounds and assists. Vegas expects this game to be competitive, and Chandler should stay hot tonight en route to crushing value yet again.
Others worth mentioning
Jimmy Butler
LeBron James
Gordon Hayward
Otto Porter
Jae Crowder
Danilo Gallinari
Evan Turner
Power Forward
Favorites
JaMychal Green ($5,500 DK – $5,000 FD) – Green is a great cash play tonight, and a decent GPP play as well. When the matchup is favorable, Green typically takes advantage. Randolph remains out tonight, which means that the minutes will be there for JaMychal, so now lets look at the matchup. The Pelicans rank 28th in PF DvP and ninth in team pace. New Orleans is slightly above average in Drtg/A, but struggle with rebounding differential, where they rank 28th. Green will have his hands full with Anthony Davis tonight, but if he avoids foul trouble, he’ll crush value.
Ryan Anderson ($4,800 DK/FD) – Ryno has been heating up lately, particularly from behind the arc. The Boston Celtics allow opposing PFs to shoot the eighth most 3PAs and the fourth most 3PM in the NBA. Those may seem like obscure stats, but they matter when it comes to a guy who takes most of his shots from behind the arc. The Celtics also allow opposing PFs to collect the third most rebounds, and while boards aren’t a huge part of what Anderson does, he should have some extra rebounding opportunities in tonight’s matchup. The Celtics rank 22nd in Drtg/A, and Vegas projects Houston to score over 110 points tonight in a closely contested game. This is a spot in which Ryan Anderson should be able to capitalize, especially considering the fact that his shot has been falling lately.
Others worth mentioning
Draymond Green
Kenneth Faried
LaMarcus Aldridge
Taj Gibson
Center
Favorites
Marcin Gortat ($5,900 DK – $6,400 FD) – Gortat has had an up and down season from a fantasy production standpoint, but he is in a great spot tonight. Gortat gets elite minutes and has double digit rebounds in all games but four this season. Gortat is a double-double machine, and should be able to smash against the Nets, who rank 30th in C DvP and 28th in DRtg/A. Brooklyn also ranks 29th in rebounding differential. Gortat is my favorite cash game Center right now, and he’s certainly viable in GPPs as well. He seems like a lock for a double double tonight, with the upside for a massive score.
Robin Lopez ($5,200 DK – $5,100 FD) – RoLo is never a sexy pick, but he’s playing very well this season. You know that I love taking big men against teams that struggle with rebounding, and that is once again the case here. Portland ranks 25th in rebounding differential, 26th in C DvP, dead last in DRtg/A and allows the second most points in the paint this season. RoLo doesn’t bring elite usage, but his price is affordable and the spot is absolutely elite. In the right matchup, Lopez has flashed 40 FPTS upside, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t smash value tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Marc Gasol
Joel Embiid
Al Horford
Rudy Gobert
Clint Capela
Pau Gasol
Jonas Valanciunas
Enes Kanter
Tendencies To Exploit
Paying attention to recent performances is particularly important when assessing shooters. A guy like Ryan Anderson desperately depends on his shot falling, and when he’s hot, he can win you a GPP. There is a fine balance between being completely swayed by recent performances (recency bias) and factoring in recent performance into your overall research process (thorough and unbiased research). Consider recent performance a bit more heavily with a scoring dependent player (Ryan Anderson) and a bit lighter with a guy who typically collects solid peripheral statistics night in and night out (Kawhi Leonard). Keep refining your process, and keep crushing!
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.