NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, December 28th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Ten
Highest O/U
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors – 2226
Lowest O/U
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons – 190.5
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 118.5
Lowest Projected Total
Milwaukee Bucks – 98.5
Largest Spread
San Antonio Spurs – 14.5-point home favorites over Phoenix Suns
Closest Spread
Charlotte Hornets – 2.5-point road favorites over Orlando Magic
Quick Thoughts
I decided that today would be a good day to try something a bit different. Ordinarily, I’ll write up one or two plays that I specifically like at each position, while mentioning others that I see as strong plays, but not going into detail on them. Today, I’ve provided my favorite four or five plays at each position along with their matchup in terms of our trends (DvP, pace and DRtg/A).
I took the same approach last Wednesday and I received a lot of positive feedback. If this is something that you as readers enjoy, I’ll take this approach on Wednesdays’ and stick to my usual structure on Mon/Fri. I welcome your feedback!
These plays listed aren’t meant to be the only options that you should consider, but they are intended to get you pointed in the right direction as to who the best plays on the board are at each position based on a variety of trends, rotations, injuries and other statistics. As always, feel free to comment below with thoughts and questions. Thanks for reading!
Point Guard
Favorites
Rajon Rondo versus Brooklyn Nets – 30th in PG DvP – fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A
Derrick Rose versus Atlanta Hawks – 29th in PG DvP – 14th fastest pace – ninth in DRtg/A
Ricky Rubio versus Denver Nuggets – 28th in PG DvP – fourth fastest pace – 25th in DRtg/A
John Wall versus Indiana Pacers – 17th in PG DvP – seventh fastest pace – 16th in DRtg/A
Clippers starting PG versus New Orleans Pelicans – 27th in PG DvP – eighth fastest pace – 14th in DRtg/A – IF Chris Paul is Out, both Raymond Felton and Austin Rivers will be in play.
Shooting Guard
Favorites
C.J. McCollum versus Sacramento Kings – 22nd in SG DvP (ninth in PG DvP) – 18th fastest pace – 21st in DRtg/A
Dwyane Wade versus Brooklyn Nets – 28th in SG DvP – fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A
Zach LaVine versus Denver Nuggets – 29th in SG DvP – fourth fastest pace – 25th in DRtg/A
If J.J. Redick is ruled Out, Jamal Crawford would be appealing as well, though his price is climbing, which caps his value and upside.
Small Forward
Favorites
Jimmy Butler versus Brooklyn Nets – 30th in SF DvP – fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A
Kawhi Leonard versus Phoenix Suns – 27th in SF DvP – second fastest pace – 27th in DRtg/A
Tobias Harris versus Milwaukee Bucks (PF only on FD) – 29th in SF DvP – 19th in pace – 12th in DRtg/A
Otto Porter versus Indiana Pacers – 26th in SF DvP – seventh in pace – 16th in DRtg/A
Power Forward
Favorites
LaMarcus Aldridge versus Phoenix Suns – 25th in PF DvP – second fastest pace – 27th in DRtg/A – seventh in rebounding differential
Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic versus Brooklyn Nets – 29th in PF DvP – fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A – 26th in rebounding differential
Draymond Green versus Toronto Raptors – 21st in PF DvP – 23rd fastest pace – 15th in DRtg/A – 20th in rebounding differential
Anthony Davis versus Los Angeles Clippers (no Blake Griffin) – 10th in PF DvP – 17th fastest pace – 17th in rebounding differential
Center
Favorites
DeMarcus Cousins versus Portland Trail Blazers – 20th in PF DvP – 27th in C DvP – tenth fastest pace – 30th in DRtg/A – 25th in rebounding differential
Karl-Anthony Towns versus Denver Nuggets – seventh in C DvP – fourth fastest pace – 25th in DRtg/A – first in rebounding differential
Nikola Jokic versus Minnesota Timberwolves – 22nd in C DvP – 22nd fastest pace – 29th in DRtg/A – fifth in rebounding differential
Robin Lopez versus Brooklyn Nets – 30th in C DvP – fastest pace – 26th in DRtg/A – 26th in rebounding differential
Tendencies To Exploit
Roster big men who dominate the glass against poor rebounding teams. That is a great way to find safety and a solid built-in floor. That can also boost upside with the likelihood of put-back buckets and double-doubles.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.