New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Odds, Picks and Predictions
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida kicked off Week 3 with a Thursday night win. Now find out who he’s picking when it comes to Saints vs. Patriots odds this Sunday.
Saints vs. Patriots Odds
| Saints Odds | +3 |
| Patriots Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 26 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
The New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots will duel in Week 3 of the young NFL season on Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. After each team split their first two games of the year, oddsmakers are expecting a closely-contested affair this weekend, pricing New England as only a field goal favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New Orleans Saints +3
After a 38-3 victory to open the year against the Green Bay Packers, there was a market overreaction to the Saints, with some analysts going as far as to say that Jameis Winston is the missing piece for New Orleans to finally make it back to the Super Bowl. Following a 26-7 loss to the Carolina Panthers, there appears to be another market overreaction—this time going in the opposite direction.
Did the Saints look bad on Sunday? Absolutely. However, they were missing eight assistant coaches, due to a COVID-19 outbreak. Defensive coaching responsibilities were split amongst a few of the remaining healthy bodies on the staff. While missing coaches is not the sexiest of storylines for bettors to account for when leading up to a game, it is incredibly impactful to game preparation and thus, the game itself. For the entire week of practice, integral components of the New Orleans staff were not in the building. On game day, there were over a dozen eyes missing from the sidelines, who are typically available to make necessary in-game adjustments. As long as New Orleans gets most of these coaches back in the fold for this week’s action, the Saints should look a lot more like they did in Week 1 than they did in Week 2.
Throw their performance against Carolina out the window when evaluating New Orleans. Winston is unlikely to be a Most Valuable Player candidate, but he compliments star talent on both sides of the ball for the Saints, including notable names such as Alvin Kamara, Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marcus Williams. Expect this group to rebound this Sunday.
New England Patriots -3
After Mac Jones was announced as the Week 1 signal caller for New England, we immediately jumped on the bandwagon for him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, despite the prevailing thought at the time that the award would be Trevor Lawrence’s to lose. The tight end combination of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry will need to be more effective going forward if New England wants to beat good teams. Per Ryan Spagnoli, the two pass catchers have only three red zone targets combined through the first two weeks of the season. Better performances from Smith and Henry would go a long way to helping the Patriots improve on their 29 percent touchdown-rate in the red zone to this point in the year.
Still, even without the offense hitting on all cylinders, a quarterback, such as Jones, who takes care of the ball well can win football games thanks to a stout defense. Linebacker Matthew Judon, who came over from the Baltimore Ravens in the offseason, had seven quarterback pressures, one sack, one quarterback-hit, and five hurries on Sunday against the New York Jets, per Evan Lazar. Deatrich Wise Jr. has been excellent through the first two weeks of the season as he looks to build on an impressive 2020 campaign. Devin McCourty and Kyle Dugger form one of the better safety tandems in the league. Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson, and Jalen Mills have not been tested too much, facing off against weak opposing quarterbacks to start the year, but they are likely to be positive presences on the defense as New England gets deeper into its schedule. Winston and company are unlikely to see many defensive breakdowns from this secondary on Sunday, which only furthers the likelihood of a low-scoring game.
Saints vs. Patriots Picks
After opening at over/under 47, this total has been aggressively attacked by sharps (rightfully so), falling to 41.5 at one point and now sitting at 42 or 42.5 depending on the sportsbook. Teasing this line back up to under 49.5 still makes a tremendous amount of sense, as I mentioned in our Week 3 Best Bets piece. However, the total has no value left at its current consensus market price.
If looking for a more traditional play for this contest, the Saints are a smart lean at +3. There was a tremendous overreaction in the market to New Orleans’ Week 1 slaughter of Green Bay. The market has overreacted once again, following the Saints’ loss to the Panthers, a very good football team, in Week 2. Fading the media narrative is never a terrible option. Back the Saints here.
PICK: Saints (+3)
Image Credit: Imagn