NFC West Betting Preview & DFS Tips: Sportsbooks Pick Arizona Cardinals Last
A big weekend is ahead for Cardinals fans. DraftKings and FanDuel are set to go live on Saturday, giving Arizona its first taste of daily fantasy sports. Then, on September 9th, Arizona online sports betting will launch. With that in mind, we’re looking closer at NFC West betting odds as well as giving some early NFL DFS tips to our friends in the desert.
The NFC West certainly seems like the deepest and most competitive division in the NFL. And if you don’t want to believe me, perhaps the oddsmakers can convince you. If you look at the odds on DraftKings in regards to which team will be the NFC Conference winner, you’ll see the four NFC West teams in the first eight teams listed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +275
Green Bay Packers +600
Los Angeles Rams +650
San Francisco 49ers +650
Seattle Seahawks +1000
New Orleans Saints +1600
Dallas Cowboys +1600
Arizona Cardinals +2200 (Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Football Team are also at +2200)
When the Arizona Cardinals—a team that oddsmakers have projected to be roughly a .500 team this season—are the “worst” team in your division, that is certainly a testament to the division as a whole. So let’s use this space to do a brief preview of each NFC West team, go over some more odds (e.g. division winner, regular season wins, Super Bowl winner??), make some predictions and picks, and then close it out with a few DFS tips.
NFC West Preview & Odds
(Note: Odds listed below are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, August 24th.)
Arizona Cardinals
Win Total (over): 8.5 (+100)
Division Winner: +650
Conference Winner: +2200
Super Bowl Winner: +4500
The Cardinals have seen plenty of roster turnover in the offseason. On the offensive side of the ball, gone are Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald (as of now, at least). To replace those guys, the Cardinals brought in A.J. Green, James Conner, and drafted Rondale Moore. And while they did lose Patrick Peterson on the other side of the ball, they also brought in Malcolm Butler and some guy named J.J. Watt.
What the Cardinals get from their defense this season is anybody’s guess. Per Pro Football Focus, they have the 12th ranked defensive line, but the linebackers (22nd) and secondary (22nd) are a different story. For what it’s worth, our projections at RotoGrinders have their defense ranked 16th.
You know what you are getting from this offense though, as the Kyler Murray / Kliff Kingsbury duo enters their third season together. Where they will need to improve is putting points on the board. Whereas they had no trouble moving the ball last season (finished sixth in yards per game with 384.6), they only finished 13th in points per game (25.6). The Rondale Moore addition (2nd round pick in this year’s draft) certainly appears to be an important one if the preseason is any indication. He’s been one of the most impressive Cardinals in camp so far, and he seems to be the ideal fit for Kingsbury’s offense.
Los Angeles Rams
Win Total (over): 10.5 (+120)
Division Winner: +190
Conference Winner: +650
Super Bowl Winner: +1400
The Rams wasted little time making a big splash during the offseason, acquiring Matthew Stafford from the Lions back in March in exchange for Jared Goff and a handful of high future draft picks. Unfortunately, the positive momentum from that trade came to a screeching halt when Cam Akers tore his Achilles right before training camp began. Still though, it’s hard not to like the outlook for this Rams team when you see the talent on both sides of the ball.
Our projections at RotoGrinders has this offense ranked fifth in the entire league. You all know names like Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee, but they also have the eighth best offensive line per Pro Football Focus. The only question I have is not how many points they will score or how many yards they will gain, but rather how exactly they will go about doing it. Is McVay going to let Stafford air it out this season? Or is he going to stay very committed to the run? In 2020, with Goff under center, the Rams only threw the ball on 56% of their plays (ranked 26th). For what it’s worth, my money is on McVay letting Stafford sling it this year.
But if McVay stays more conservative on the offensive side of the ball, it’d also be hard to argue with that approach considering how ferocious the defense is shaping up to be. This Aaron Donald fella is perhaps the most feared player in the league, and he is the primary reason the Rams have one of the best defensive lines in the league (ranked fourth per PFF). Throw in a talented secondary, highlighted by Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams, and it’s easy to see why we have their defense ranked sixth in our projections at RotoGrinders.
San Francisco 49ers
Win Total (over): 10.5 (-105)
Division Winner: +180
Conference Winner: +650
Super Bowl Winner: +1400
It feels like the preview for the San Francisco 49ers can be handled by asking two simple questions.
1) Can this team stay relatively healthy this season?
Following their Super Bowl appearance in the 2019 season, an injury-riddled 2020 season ultimately led to a disappointing 6-10 record. Nick Bosa missed 14 games. Jimmy Garoppolo missed 10 games. Deebo Samuel missed nine games. George Kittle missed eight games. Raheem Mostert missed eight games. Brandon Aiyuk missed four games. Quite frankly, it’s hard to win NFL games when your best players aren’t playing. Injuries certainly are going to happen in such a violent sport, but there’s no question that the Niners got the short end of the stick compared to everyone else in the 2020 season when it came to injuries.
Clearly though, oddsmakers are chalking up that poor 2020 record to all of those missed games from their key players. Once you get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +275, the Niners are right in that next tier of teams (along with the Rams and Packers) with the shortest odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At RotoGrinders, our projections have their defense ranked fourth and their offense ranked ninth. So we’re certainly on board too!
Speaking of the offense…
2) Who is going to start for this team at quarterback?
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is sticking to his guns that Jimmy Garoppolo will be his Week 1 starter over Trey Lance. But there are plenty of smart people out there who think that not only will Lance be the starter by season’s end, but that he will also ultimately be named QB1 for Week 1! How Shanahan handles this situation will have massive implications, not only on San Francisco’s season, but also on our fantasy football teams.
Seattle Seahawks
Win Total (over): 10 (+100)
Division Winner: +275
Conference Winner: +1000
Super Bowl Winner: +2200
When it comes to roster turnover, things stayed relatively quiet for the Seahawks in the offseason. On the offensive side of the ball, they still have names like Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, and those guys are #good at football.
Perhaps the biggest addition for the Seahawks this offseason is new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron. The main thing you are hearing out of camp from the Seattle players regarding Waldron is the increased tempo, but I’ll believe it when I see it considering Pete Carroll is still the head coach. For example, in 2020, the Seahawks averaged just 63.5 plays per game. That was good (bad) enough for 10th fewest in the league. Waldron will spearhead an offense that averaged 28.7 points per game last season (8th most in the league), and our projections at RotoGrinders are expecting more of the same this season (ranked seventh).
Whether their defense can make any sort of jump this season though could be the difference between them being an elite team or them being just a good team. Our projections at RotoGrinders have their defense ranked 18th. And when you look at their individual units, it is clear that this defense goes as their linebackers go. Per PFF, their linebacker unit is the second best in the league, whereas their defensive line (ranked 29th) and secondary (ranked 26th) are amongst some of the worst in the league.
NFC West Predictions and Picks
Based on the research I have done leading up to this 2021 season, below you will find my favorite bet for each team with a brief description as to why. Trust me when I say that, based on how good I think all four of these teams will be, I wanted to list the over for each of their win totals. But that seemed a little counterintuitive! So here is what I ultimately landed on…
Arizona Cardinals: I think the Cardinals continue to follow the natural evolution of a team that is on the up-and-up. They finished 5-10-1 in 2019, and then went 8-8 in 2020. I think Rondale Moore is an upgrade over Larry Fitzgerald (sorry diehard Cardinals fans). I think James Conner will help them down inside the 10 and 20 yard lines. And hopefully J.J. Watt and Malcolm Butler improve the defense. To me, this looks like an above .500 team that can at least go 9-8.
PICK: Arizona Cardinals Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins (+100)
Los Angeles Rams: Based on our projections for their offense (5th) and defense (6th), I think the Rams have some of the best value out there to sneak past the betting favorites (the Chiefs and Bucs)—and in the words of Jake Taylor—win the whole {freakin’} thing. Remember, they are not too far removed from going 13-3 and reaching the Super Bowl (three seasons ago). And based on the moves they have made the past few seasons, they might very well be the most “win-now” team in the most “win-now” professional sports league.
PICK: Super Bowl LVI Winner – Los Angeles Rams (+1400)
San Francisco 49ers: When looking at our projections, this Niners team shapes up similarly to the Rams in that they should have a top notch defense (ranked 4th) as well as a top offense (9th). In my opinion, this has at least 12-5 or 13-4 written all over it. And while you can obviously find better odds for them to win the division, I think I will just stick with the over on their win total. This is your friendly reminder to always price shop too. Whereas DraftKings has their over 10.5 at -105, you can get it at even money on FanDuel.
PICK: San Francisco Over 10.5 Regular Season Wins (+100)
Seattle Seahawks: Personally, my favorite bet for the Seahawks doesn’t involve wins, doesn’t involve divisions, and doesn’t involve Super Bowls. I think we just bet them to make the playoffs, plain and simple. I could easily see them going 10-7 (and thus resulting in you pushing your bet on the Win Total), finishing third in the NFC West, and yet still cruising into the playoffs. So ultimately, that is my current lean with a team that should be explosive on offense but still has plenty of question marks on defense.
PICK: Will the Seattle Seahawks reach the playoffs? – Yes (-130)
NFL DFS Tips
If any of you are looking to scratch your daily fantasy football itch, Week 1 is right around the corner! All of the Cardinals (at Titans), Niners (at Lions), and Seahawks (at Colts) will be on that week’s main slate, with the Rams set to host the Bears on Sunday Night Football that will surely be on it’s own single-game slate and most likely on a two-game primetime slate that includes Monday Night Football (Ravens at Raiders).
Before I dive into what plays I’m liking on the Cardinals, Niners, and Seahawks for Week 1, make sure you take a look at our NFL Premium product over at RotoGrinders. Quite simply, there is no better value available out there when you factor in how much you get from a tools and content perspective. Come join us for what is surely going to be an amazing NFL season!
Okay, so for Week 1, the first thing I have to mention is that, if Trey Lance somehow gets the starting nod in Week 1, well holy crap he is only $4,500 on DraftKings. Based on his rushing ability and a matchup against the woeful Lions, I’m guessing that would make him Chalk City. Trey Lance? More like Trey Lock.
When looking at some other notable 49ers, it’s hard not to bring up George Kittle first. He is just $7,000 on FanDuel and $6,400 on DraftKings and, historically speaking, cheap value is usually pretty easy to come by in Week 1 of the NFL season. When it comes to expensive tight ends, I’m guessing the majority of DFS players will migrate to Travis Kelce. Kittle is significantly cheaper than Kelce on both sites, which makes him a great tournament pivot in my eyes.
The one other noteworthy price tag I see on the Niners is the $6,100 price tag for Raheem Mostert on FanDuel. Assuming Mostert is looking at the lion’s share (pun intended) of the backfield work for San Francisco, he could easily pay off this cheap price tag in what should also set up as a very favorable game script (49ers are touchdown-plus favorites against the Lions).
As for the Arizona Cardinals, I’m seeing plenty to like going up against a Titans defense that allowed 27.4 points per game last season. An early run of our projections for Week 1 has Kyler Murray ($8,400 on FanDuel; $7,600 on DraftKings) right in the running with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen for highest raw projection at the quarterback position.
Pairing Kyler with DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200 on FanDuel; $7,800 on DraftKings) will certainly make for an expensive stack, but I lovelovelove adding in Rondale Moore to get some salary relief. That is especially so on DraftKings, where Moore is the bare minimum $3,000 and the scoring system is full-point PPR (FanDuel is only a half-point).
The Cardinals running backs are cheap too, with James Conner being $5,500 FD / $4,500 DK and Chase Edmonds coming in at $5,900 FD / $4,600 DK. With his likely much higher involvement in the passing game, the Edmonds price tag on DK is what is sticking out the most here (especially with their aforementioned scoring system benefitting him more here).
The Seattle Seahawks will surely draw more favorable matchups in other weeks of the season, but the talent they possess is never going to take them off the table even when they are expensive and in tough matchups. One of the biggest conundrums with them in 2020 was whether to stack Russell Wilson with one or both of his elite wide receivers (Metcalf and Lockett). The fact that all three of them are usually pretty expensive just adds to the headache of that decision.
We can’t forget about the Seahawks running game though, and Chris Carson is checking in at just $5,900 on DraftKings for Week 1. An early run of our projections has him getting 56% of the team carries and 12% of the targets. We are still really far out from September 12th, but that has him looking like one of the better mid tier values at running back for what promises to be a massive Week 1 slate.
_Imag Credit: Imagn