NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 17
Welcome to Week 17 and the last “full” slate of the 2016 season. It is far from a full slate, however, with several teams set to rest key starters for some or all of their games. While every matchup may take place on Sunday, this week has a short-slate feel due to fewer available elite options and what will be a loose salary environment by kickoff.
The role of late-breaking news about who will play a majority of snaps gives Week 17 a preseason DFS feel. Monitoring developments in the hours leading up to kickoff takes on extra importance. As does keeping an eye on Narrative Street, where Steve Smith will get fed (until he takes a swing at Dre Kirkpatrick), Antonio Gates may or may not be hobbling toward history, and several other records and contract incentives come into focus (hello, David Johnson and Mark Ingram).
Our focus, at the time this is being written, is to identify high-upside options who won’t be affected by last-minute developments. We can build around these plays when more value opens up on Saturday and Sunday morning. By then we could be confident enough in Rob Kelley’s health to ride him against the mail-it-in Giants, or fired-up to give Rex Burkhead a shot if Jeremy Hill is out (well, “fired-up” may be a little strong).
The main takeaway is to stay plugged in throughout the weekend, as the dynamics will change often before kickoff on Sunday. Thank you all for reading this season. It was a lot of fun. Good luck in Week 17, everyone.
QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, $8,800
Rodgers has been on an absolute tear since Week 7, posting our highest quarterback grade, five more touchdown passes than anyone else, and the second-most yards at his position. He has eight games of 20-plus FanDuel points in his last 10, including two 33-plus-point performances – one of which came last week. He will be chalky for a quarterback, as it’s no secret the Packers will be involved in one of the few games with both teams needing a win. Eating a little chalk is worth it with a red-hot Aaron Rodgers.
The Lions were a defense to target early in the season, before evolving into Cowboys-esque clock-drainers. They went from 46-percent no-huddle, down to three percent Weeks 5-15. On Monday, they suddenly used tempo on 70-percent of snaps and their 29th-graded defense was predictably exposed. Green Bay has a healthy 26-point implied total, and even if Detroit tries to play keep-away, Rodgers’ efficiency keeps him viable (he threw four touchdowns on 15 completions against the Lions in Week 4). If Detroit keeps pushing the pace, Rodgers will scatter pieces of them all over their dome.
QB Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals, $7,400
Salary cap considerations are not paramount this week, but the 19th-most-expensive quarterback would probably still go overlooked even if they were. Many folks have given up on Palmer, yet, since Week 8, he is our fifth-highest-graded quarterback. Remove the Week 14 game in a Miami monsoon, and he grades behind only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan during the season’s second half. In a week where teammate David Johnson will be colossally-owned, he makes for a diversifying add-on.
Johnson needs another 100 yards from scrimmage to break one record, and he’s looking for 159 receiving yards to become the third running back to have 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving. Larry Fitzgerald needs eight catches for personal and team milestones, and he has a beautiful matchup with E.J. Gaines. J.J. Nelson should flame rookie sixth-rounder Blake Countess, who was shredded by the 49ers in his first start last week. The Rams give up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and are allowing the third-most during the last month. Palmer will be halfway to a strong fantasy day by facilitating teammates’ records alone.
RB David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals, $9,300
A case can be made to fade Johnson, as we typically like to avoid paying up for chalk and the Rams haven’t been a great opponent for fantasy running back production (16th-most points allowed). This week is unique, however, as the other top running backs are all questionable from a workload angle, due to potentially being rested for some or all of their games. Johnson is also unique, in that he has proven he is essentially matchup proof due to his versatile skillset and hefty workload.
Our highest-graded running back, both overall and in the passing game, Johnson is averaging 26.4 opportunities (handoffs plus targets) since the Cardinals’ Week 9 bye. He’s turned them into six catches, 137.7 total yards, and 1.7 touchdowns per game. That’s a 26.7-FanDuel-point average. In a week with scant options at the position, and no other running back we can confidently project for a 20-point day, spending on Johnson is defensible — even if it won’t be sneaky. Fortunately we will have the salary room to make him fit.
RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots, $7,600
As the eighth-most-expensive running back, and having seen his salary rise $400 from last week, Blount isn’t exactly cheap. He is, however, in a prime spot. The Patriots need to win the game to ensure home-field advantage. They are 10-point favorites and have a meaty implied total (27.3). Blount has scored touchdowns in four straight games, leads the league with 17 rushing scores, and he is coming off of a 20-carry, 50-yard, two-touchdown game against a far tougher run defense than he will encounter in Miami.
The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs during the last month, and were gashed for 272 yards on the ground last week. Their run defense grades 26th-best, while New England’s run-blocking ranks fifth. James Develin, our highest-graded blocking fullback (by far) has seen his snaps increase since their Week 9 bye. Tom Brady’s dropbacks have decreased in each game since Week 12, from 50 then, down to 28 last week. He is banged-up and the Dolphins have our third-highest pass-rush grade.
RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints, $6,100
Focus will understandably be on the Saints’ passing game in a matchup with, by far, the week’s highest projected total (56.5). Ingram makes a worthy pivot in case, like last week, New Orleans scores a couple on the ground. He set a season-high for snap percentage (67.6) and added 91 rushing yards to his two touchdowns. Atlanta faces the most targets and allow the second-most receiving yards to the position. While he’s not the Saints’ primary pass-catching back, Ingram is averaging 3.3 targets per game over the last month and is the 13th-highest-graded running back in the passing game.
The Falcons have our 28th-best run defense and allow the league’s eighth-most yards per carry (4.4). In their last two games, they have allowed 4.5 yards per carry to Jonathan Stewart and 5.5 to Carlos Hyde. What they have in common, other than gashing Atlanta’s run defense, is their teams couldn’t hang in the game long enough for them to gather more than 11 and 13 carries, respectively. The Saints stand a better shot of scoring with the Falcons and keeping Ingram as highly-involved as he was last week.
WR Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks, $7,100
The Seahawks will be motivated to go all-out for a possible two-seed and a first-round bye. The 49ers defense can be had in many ways, but with Seattle’s backfield thinned out by injury and Thomas Rawls battling a shoulder bruise that sidelined him for the second half in Week 16, the most reliable method will be through the air. Baldwin was obviously a central part of that even before Tyler Lockett broke his leg. Baldwin saw a career-high 19 targets last week, with 13 of them coming after Lockett went down just before halftime.
Not only were the targets a career-high for Baldwin, so were his receptions (13) and yards (171). He also scored for the second week in a row. The 49ers surrender the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts. It would be more but their league-worst run defense gets more attention from opponents. Baldwin lines up in the slot for roughly three-fourths of his routes and will see a lot of lightly-used Keith Reaser, who has taken over for the IR’ed Jimmie Ward. Reaser has allowed 14.1 yards per catch, a 139.3 passer rating, and four touchdowns on only 32 targets.
WR Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,100
If this feels point-chasey, it’s because it is. Robinson’ 19.2 FanDuel points were his most since Week 10 and his third-most this season. He has graded higher in the passing game only once this year, and in no other contest has he had more catches (nine) or yards (147). It also marked the end of a hellish run of top cornerbacks, and Doug Marrone’s first game in charge of a team throwing downfield more often. Marrone talked about moving Robinson around the formation, and the interim coach is campaigning for a permanent job.
Further passing success is the best way for Marrone to make his case and the Colts have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards on the 14th-most pass attempts. They have the 30th-graded pass coverage and 32nd-graded pass rush. Robinson’s matchup with Vontae Davis is scary on paper. In four games, Davis has allowed Robinson only six catches and 71 yards on 16 targets, with an interception. Yet, Davis has been a disaster while battling injury and grades 113th in coverage out of 120 cornerbacks. He had his worst overall grade of the season last week.
WR Brandon LaFell, Cincinnati Bengals, $5,800
Nobody really wants to use LaFell in fantasy. Yet, over the last two weeks he is our fourth-highest-graded receiver and has the fifth-most receiving yards (221) among wideouts on 17 targets. During the last month, he’s produced 12.6, 18, and 22 FanDuel points. Not too shabby for the 38th-most-expensive receiver. The Bengals (or the Ravens) have nothing to play for on Sunday but pride, although Cincinnati has been out of the playoffs for weeks and LaFell is still producing useful fantasy totals.
The Bengals will have a hard time moving the ball on the ground against the third-highest-graded run defense – especially given the fact their power running game is broken. Rex Burkhead is their best backfield bet over a used-up Jeremy Hill. Andy Dalton will be busy. His 48 attempts the last time Cincinnati faced Baltimore in Week 12 were his second-most this season. A.J. Green didn’t play, but Tyler Eifert did – catching five of seven targets for 68 yards and a score. Eifert is out now, as is Ravens’ top cornerback Jimmy Smith.
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs, $6,800
Similar to David Johnson, there are legitimate reasons to fade our highest-graded tight end in tournaments. Kelce is relatively expensive. He will be highly-owned. He plays a position marked by volatile scoring. Other than his price, which can be navigated around this week, those items are hard to argue with. Yet, there is risk in fading him. No other tight end possesses Kelce’s ceiling/floor profile. He may be outscored, but good luck figuring out by whom — when it will almost certainly be a touchdown-driven occurrence.
Even if Kelce doesn’t hit paydirt, he is a rare tight end who can still hit value. He has reached 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games, averaging 122 yards and 17.2 FanDuel points on 10.2 targets in those weeks. He had one touchdown. While we’d obviously like to see him score more often, Kelce lapping the field at tight end without getting in the endzone not only shows an elevated floor, but a cathedral ceiling if he does catch a touchdown or two. The Chargers have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends during the last month and have struggled to contain the better ones they’ve faced.
TE Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions, $5,800
Ebron makes for a nifty pivot off of Antonio Gates, who will likely be more popular in a #NarrativeStreet spot. Gates is going for the all-time touchdown record for tight ends, a position Kansas City shuts down. It’s fair to wonder if Phil Rivers completes more passes to Chiefs than to Gates in the red-zone. Ebron’s matchup with the Packers features the week’s second-highest projected total (49.5 points) and is forecast to be a back-and-forth affair (Green Bay favored by 3.5). On a slate lacking upside tight ends, at least Ebron plays in a potential shootout.
Detroit’s broken running game averages 3.8 yards per carry, features the 25th-highest-graded run blocking and faces our sixth-highest-graded run defense. They’ll be throwing. Matthew Stafford took his most dropbacks (50) and attempted a season-high 46 passes last week, as the Lions returned to the no-huddle. Eight of Ebron’s team-high 12 targets came from the no-huddle. He set season-highs for targets, catches (eight) and yards (93). The Packers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.