NFL Best Bets for Week 1: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
What To Expect This Season
This article will be similar to the one I’ve written for the NBA and MLB seasons. I’ll be betting two unders every week, one for a game and one for a player prop. I’ll track the results and begin each article (moving forward) with a quick recap of the previous week’s bets.
Unders make people uncomfortable, and the books know it. Overs draw more action from casual bettors, and they’re priced up accordingly, which means we can find value going the opposite direction.
Ideally, the picks and information I share can help you make better bets. The analysis isn’t intended to convince you of my side but to illustrate how I’ve arrived to the conclusion. Hopefully this approach encourages you to then find your own Best Bets.
Football is back. Let’s go!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Under 42.5 (-120 on FanDuel)
Pittsburgh brought in two new quarterbacks this season. Russell Wilson won the job in camp, and it always seemed like the Steelers were leaning that direction. Justin Fields is lurking if Wilson falters, and it seems likely the young QB will get an opportunity at some point this season. Maybe even…on Sunday?
Wilson’s status suddenly seems in doubt for Week 1. He missed a large portion of training camp with a calf injury, and now reports are surfacing that he isn’t a lock to play on Sunday. That would thrust Fields into a starting role. This is already a run-first offense lacking playmakers, so the scoring upside was going to be limited. Add in Fields, and this group could be in big trouble.
Atlanta also brought in a pair of new signal callers, and their veteran faces similar questions. Kirk Cousins is 36 years old and is coming off an Achilles tear. He didn’t take a snap in the preseason. Michael Penix, who Atlanta surprisingly drafted at No. 8 overall, only played a single game in the preseason. The handling of Penix in the preseason, plus the fact that they drafted him at all, cast some doubt on Cousins’ health. And even if the Falcons hadn’t taken Penix, it’s fair to be skeptical of a player at an advanced age coming back from a major injury.
Pittsburgh’s defense should be excellent once again this season. The 6th-best scoring defense in 2023 added one of the best linebackers on the free agent market in the offseason, inking Patrick Queen to a 3-year, $41M deal. Speaking of offseason additions, Atlanta scooped up four-time 2nd-team All-Pro safety Justin Simmons and traded for Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon. It should be an improved defense in 2024.
Tyjae Spears Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-113 on FanDuel)
This is an ambiguous backfield, which could lead to some value. Tony Pollard is the guy with the 3-year, $21.75M contract, so I’m banking on him being the clear lead back over Spears. Both backs should be involved, but the opportunities on the ground might be limited given Tennessee’s new coaching staff.
Brian Callahan will take over is head coach after five years as offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. During his tenure, the Bengals never ranked higher than 20th in rushing rate. They were 31st in 2023. Cincinnati averaged the 3rd-fewest carries per game last season. Would expect Tennessee to throw much more often than they have in recent seasons.
Chicago had one of the best run defenses in the league last season. The Bears ranked 1st in total rushing yards per game, 1st in running back rushing yards, and 4th in yards per carry. An inconsistent pass rush made them vulnerable through the air, but this unit was elite on the ground.
Tennessee is an underdog on the road, so the game script should favor passing. Have a hard time seeing Spears get anywhere close to double-digit carries, so he’ll have to be extremely efficient to exceed this line. That’ll be tough to do given the matchup.
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