NFL Best Bets for Week 17: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We finally bounced back with a pair of easy wins. The DTR-led Browns stumbled to just 6 points against Cincinnati. Kyle Pitts had 1 catch for 7 yards in Michael Penix Jr.‘s debut. Let’s stay hot this week.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-9
- Prop Picks: 7-9
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Under 39.5 (-118 on FanDuel)
This mostly comes down to not believing Jalen Hurts is going to play. Hurts was knocked out of Philly’s Week 16 matchup with a concussion. Kenny Pickett replaced him but also got banged up. Pickett injured his ribs and also seemed to be playing through a hand or wrist issue. Emergency quarterback Tanner McKee was warming up in the 4th quarter, though Pickett ultimately finished the game. The Eagles are now a game behind both Detroit and Minnesota for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They need one more win to take the division, and they get to play the Giants in Week 18. There isn’t much incentive to push Hurts here.
On the other side, CeeDee Lamb has been shut down for the season. Cooper Rush has been targeting Lamb heavily, so his absence will completely change the offense. We should see plenty of Rico Dowdle, which is good for the under.
Both of these defenses have been stout lately. Philadelphia and Dallas are top 8 in EPA/play allowed over the past 4 weeks. The Cowboys are playing at the fastest pace in the league for the season, but they’ve slowed down in recent games. Dallas has been closer to a league-average pace in December. Philadelphia is bottom half in pace. This is setting up to be a defensive struggle, especially if Pickett is under center.
Jonathan Taylor Under 1.5 Receptions (-155 on BetMGM)
It sounds like Anthony Richardson is trending in the right direction, which is notable for Taylor’s receiving production. He has 3 catches on 5 targets for 14 yards over the past 5 games, which aligns with Richardson returning to the starting lineup. Taylor’s 3% target share in this stretch is 8th on the team. He ranks behind three different Indianapolis tight ends.
The Colts are dead last in neutral pass rate since Richardson regained the starting job. They’re touchdown favorites against a Giants team that has lost 10 straight games. New York has a -81 point differential since their Week 11 bye. It’s hard to imagine them staying competitive here.
More importantly, the Giants have been gashed on the ground. They’re allowing the 2nd-most rushing yards per game. We just saw Indianapolis lean on the run game to an insane degree in Week 16, hanging 335 rushing yards on Tennessee. The Colts had 50 carries to just 11 pass attempts.
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