NFL Best Bets for Week 18: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results + Year In Review
It was a tough week. Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee torched the Cowboys. Joe Flacco started in place of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor caught 2 passes. I probably should’ve factored in the Flacco possibility more heavily heading into the week. I stand by the read on Pickett/McKee; it just didn’t go our way. Dallas held up their end on offense but couldn’t get any stops on defense.
This will be the last article of the season. It’s been a blast! The results haven’t been there, but it’s an amazing gift to be able to write this content every week. It means a lot to me. Thanks to everyone for reading!
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-10
- Prop Picks: 7-10
New Orleans Saints Under 14.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
Tampa Bay has turned it around on defense. Since their Week 11 bye, the Bucs lead the league in EPA/play allowed. Now, the competition has been extremely favorable. Tampa Bay has played the Giants, Panthers (twice), Raiders, Chargers, and Cowboys in this stretch. But they get another glorious matchup this week.
New Orleans has been abysmal with Spencer Rattler under center. They’re averaging just 12.3 points per game in his 6 starts. The Saints did put up 27 on the Bucs back in Week 6 with Rattler at the helm, but they were largely healthy. They also benefited from a punt return touchdown. Rattler is now without Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill. This game should go much differently.
The Bucs are also one of the few teams who need a win to make the playoffs this week. Tampa Bay secures the NFC South title with a victory or an Atlanta loss. They should be treating this as a normal game, at least for the majority of the contest.
Jayden Daniels Under 214.5 Passing Yards (-117 on Caesars)
This is a hefty number, especially when you consider motivation. Washington has already secured a playoff spot. A win would clinch the #6 seed, while a loss could mean slipping to the #7 seed (the Packers would have to win). Head coach Dan Quinn said they’re going to go after the #6 seed, but that doesn’t guarantee Daniels will play the entire game. If Washington gets a lead, Daniels could sit. If Chicago is beating Green Bay, Daniels could sit. If Quinn goes back on his comments, we could see Daniels for just a half.
Regardless of motivation, this is a healthy number. Daniels is at 220.6 passing yards per game. Dallas has played much better on defense recently, particularly against the pass. They’re 13th in EPA/play over the past 6 weeks, after ranking 30th coming into that stretch. The Cowboys have held quarterbacks to the 7th-lowest dropback EPA over this recent run. They were giving up the 8th-highest mark from Weeks 1-11.
Daniels did hang 275 passing yards on this defense in Week 12, but it took him 38 attempts to get there. That was a wild, back-and-forth game with Washington playing from behind and losing starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. With a normal game script, Daniels likely won’t reach that type of volume again, especially with the playing time questions.
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