NFL Best Bets for Week 4: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Finally missed one. Nothing ruins an under like a pick 6, and Will Levis coughed one up in the 1st quarter. That TD ended up being the difference for the under 38. Ezekiel Elliott struggled again and is losing work to Dallas’ other backs. Already hit his under again on Thursday Night Football this week.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 2-1
- Prop Picks: 3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Under 40.5 (-115 on FanDuel)
Hit the Steelers’ under over at ScoresAndOdds in Week 3 and going right back to them. The Steelers are 3-0 to the under, and they’re set up for another slugfest here.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been one of the best in the league so far, allowing just 26 points through three weeks. The offenses they’ve faced certainly haven’t been anything special, but Indianapolis hasn’t been much better. They survived another nightmare performance from Anthony Richardson in Week 3, leaning on the ground game in a win over Chicago. Richardson continues to look lost as a passer, leading the league in INTs and ranking dead last in completion rate (49.3%).
The Steelers have shown minimal interest in pushing the ball on offense. Arthur Smith has called an extremely conservative game, scoring just enough to win. He’s shielded Justin Fields from himself, and it’s worked.
D’Andre Swift Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-125 on BetMGM)
It might be over for Swift. Week 3 was supposed to be the get-right game, facing the 2nd worst run defense in the league. And yet Swift stumbled for 20 yards on 13 carries. That’s surprisingly not even his worst rushing game this season (14 carries for 18 yards in Week 2).
The offensive line has been a big problem. Swift is averaging just 0.41 yards before contact, the 4th lowest mark among players with at least 15 carries. He’s also not doing anything himself though. Swift is dead last in yards after contact in that group. Basically, he’s getting hit quickly and going down immediately. That’s a rough combination.
Swift had a stranglehold on the RB rushing share through two weeks, but that changed in Week 3. With Travis Homer injured, Roschon Johnson was activated, and he earned 8 carries. Chicago’s RBs behind Swift had only totaled 7 carries in Weeks 1 and 2. Khalil Herbert also had a season-high 4 carries in Week 3. Now ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler is reporting that Johnson will see an “extended look” in Week 4. Given his incomparable inefficiency, Swift can’t afford to cede any carries to teammates. He’s in big trouble if his workload slips at all.
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