NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 13
Happy Saturday, Grinders! Here is hoping you had a wonderful holiday weekend spent with loved ones and great food. Also, let’s hope you found enough ten-minute breaks to place online sports bets on all of the NFL and NBA action. With more to come, let’s scan the Sunday slate for props to exploit.
Check out our Week 13 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 13.
NFL Betting Picks Week 13 — QB Player Prop for 49ers at Ravens
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 210.5 Passing Yards (use our FanDuel to get these odds)
Currently, a prohibitive favorite to win the NFL MVP on FanDuel (-220), Lamar Jackson faces his toughest test of the season as the 49ers travel to Baltimore for the game of the weekend. The 49ers defense has been about as impressive as Jackson’s campaign for MVP — this matchup is a potential preview of the SuperBowl.
Jackson’s ascension is not simply due to his passing ability. His best yardage total came in Week 1 against the Dolphins when he threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns. Since then, Jackson’s dual-threat ability, poise, and game-breaking ability are the main claims to his likely MVP award. For example, in a blowout victory in Los Angeles last week, Jackson threw five touchdown passes but only accumulated 169 yards. Jackson has not needed to throw that often to be effective. This week, the 49ers are going to make it difficult for him regardless of what strategy Baltimore employs.
As a defense, the 49ers allow a second-best 60% completion rate, a league-best 136.9 passing yards per game, and league-best 4.6 passing yards per attempt. The defense is already extremely difficult on passing games and there is some rain in the forecast. Sledding will be tough for Lamar on Sunday. Give me the under.
My Pick: Under 210.5 Passing Yards -108
NFL Betting Picks Week 13 — RB Player Prop for Raiders at Chiefs
Josh Jacobs Over/Under 76.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
After suffering an embarrassing defeat to the New York Jets last weekend, the Raiders are clinging to their playoff hopes as they oppose the Chiefs on Sunday. For the Raiders to upset the Chiefs on the road, Oakland will need to exploit any Kansas City weakness. The main weakness on defense — stopping the run.
This weakness plays directly into the hands of coach Jon Gruden who clearly wants to run the ball early, often, next week, next season, post-retirement… you get the picture. Oakland average 27.7 rushing attempts per game and would love to go over that number. Thirty or more rushes likely means that Kansas City has command of the game.
Oakland averages 4.4 yards per rush attempt with Josh Jacobs being the main cog in the backfield. Fortunately for Oakland — and Jacobs — the Chiefs allow a second-worst 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and very generous 143.1 rushing yards per game. If Oakland can somehow take an early advantage, Gruden will happily force the ball to Jacobs and salt the clock away. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 76.5 Rushing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 13 — WR Player Prop for Packers at Giants
Darius Slayton Over/Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
The Giants will be without Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison, and Golden Tate. Though Sterling Shepard is back in the fold, plenty of targets will still be thrown toward Darius Slayton.
Slayton has seen his share of opportunities in the Giants’ last two games — receiving seven last week and 14 the week before against the Jets. Against the Jets, Slayton converted ten targets for 121 receiving yards. Slayton has flashed big-play ability and with such a modest total could take care of the meat of this prop with one big play.
The Packers are actually pretty stingy to opposing wide receivers — allowing a 25th-ranked 30.26 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. With that said, Slayton could easily climb over this prop and still have a bad fantasy day. Give me the over out of necessity for the Giants.
My Pick: Over 45.5 Receiving Yards -112
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 13 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 13 betting picks.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images