NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 16
Happy Saturday! The NFL put together a busy Saturday for the public while leaving enough games for a healthy slate of games on Sunday. Last weekend, an ill-advised Drew Lock prop in the snow cost me a perfect sweep. Saquon Barkley went over 100 rushing yards against the hapless Dolphins for one winner. Despite a brutal beat for many under bettors, the 49ers did keep Austin Hooper significantly below his receiving prop. All I want for Christmas is a player prop sweep. Will my Christmas wish be granted?
Check out our Week 16 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 16.
NFL Betting Picks Week 16 — QB Player Prop for Saints at Titans
Drew Brees Over/Under 285.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
The Saints travel to Tennessee for a game pitting two teams with plenty to play for. New Orleans is currently embroiled in a race for first place while the Titans are fighting for the right to play in the tournament. The teams will be highly motivated. New Orleans will be on a short week.
The contrast between the Saints’ offense at home versus on the road is well-documented over the years. The passing flurry is far less prolific outside of the dome with Drew Brees holding some pretty significant splits throughout his career. In 2018, the future Hall of Famer threw for 321.6 yards per game while only compiling 217.6 passing yards per road performance.
The Titans know their path to victory is to run and possess the football and keep the ball out of Brees’ hands. Tennessee averages 30 rushing attempts per game over the last three contests. As the weather gets colder, the Titans want to run more. Coach Ditka, ahem, Vrabel has lowered opposing pass attempts to 33.7 per game over the past three games. Brees will need to be hyper-efficient to get over this number with fewer attempts. I will take the under.
My Pick: Under 285.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 16 — RB Player Prop for Jaguars at Falcons
Devonta Freeman Over/Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
The Falcons are big favorites at home on Sunday — currently favored by 7.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Devonta Freeman figures to gain some traction in the DFS streets at an affordable price in a winnable matchup. More than the matchup, a healthy Freeman is the only true backfield option for the Falcons.
Last weekend, Freeman doubled the snaps of teammate Brian Hill (>66%) and saw 15 touches in a tough matchup against the 49ers. Freeman is not having a particularly efficient season but neither are the Jaguars. The 5.1 yards per attempt average the Jaguars’ defense carries to Atlanta should be a boon to Freeman’s efficiency.
The unquestioned horse for a big home favorite against a wildly inefficient defense, Freeman is one of my more confident over picks in awhile. Grab this number at DraftKings for a slightly better price — FanDuel currently has it at -112. Every penny counts during the holidays!
My Pick: Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -106
NFL Betting Picks Week 16 — WR Player Prop for Bengals at Dolphins
Tyler Boyd Over/Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The fact that I am picking a player against the Dolphins is a bit of a spoiler, I know. I am sorry. The Dolphins defense is a doormat I continue to walk over — happily taking Saquon Barkley to take advantage of them in Week 15. In Week 16, the Dolphins welcome another bad football team in a game with serious implications — for next year’s draft. GridironIQ displays plenty of green for opposing fantasy matchups.
Tyler Boyd is the player I gravitate towards given this receiving prop. Despite residing in the slot, Boyd brings a 7.8 yards per target average into the Week 16 matchup and should see plenty of opportunities from Andy Dalton. Dalton returned three weeks ago and has had an eye for Boyd relative to his teammates. Boyd saw 7,6, and 10 targets over the last three weeks. The Dolphins’ defense allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt in 2019. Targets against Miami are far more valuable than those against other teams. Book the over.
My Pick: Over 65.5 Receiving Yards -112
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 16 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 16 betting picks.
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