NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 5
The NFL season sped past the quarter-pole last week as contenders continue to take shape and pretenders continue to get exposed. Then, we have the Dolphins who are in a class of their own. The Week 5 slate brings a very strange schedule with only two games in the afternoon window and our first game in London between the Raiders and Bears.
Here are some NFL betting tips along with my three favorite props for NFL Week 5.
NFL Betting Picks Week 5 — QB Player Prop for Buccaneers at Saints
Jameis Winston Over/Under 292.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Jameis Winston and his pals put forth a complete effort last week in an upset victory over the home Rams. The defense forced turnovers of Jared Goff and Jameis Winston continued to push the ball down the field to his wide receivers. Winston is averaging 273.5 passing yards per game and will play another road game versus the Saints. The Saints, for their part, are allowing 279.25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
The Saints, though, are coming off of two straight victories against two teams that live to establish the run. Further, Jameis Winston has only eclipsed this passing total once against the Saints in his career. It seems like this line is built off of two consecutive 380+ passing yard performances. Prior to those performances, though, Winston accumulated 208 and 194 yards through the air. Inconsistency defines the career of Jameis Winston and this number is really high. Only Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes possess greater passing props. One week the world perceives Winston as one of the worst passers in the league and a few weeks later we project him for nearly 300 passing yards. The world comes at you fast. Give me the under.
My Pick: Under 292.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 5 — RB Player Prop for Vikings at Giants
Dalvin Cook Over/Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Throughout the 2019 season, a big pitfall of mine has been targetting too many overs on player props — especially when the price is better paying better than even money. Naturally, I have not learned from my mistakes and I want to target a running back looking to bounce back from a pretty tough week.
The media has swarmed the Vikings this week after Adam Thielen expressed his disgust with the Vikings’ offensive approach. While Thielen received his apology, my gut tells me that Mike Zimmer is not going to change his stripes that quickly. The Giants are recently showing life in life post-Eli — surprised, I’m sure — but still, struggle to stop opposing offenses. Dalvin Cook is one yard shy of the NFL rushing ead — behind Christian McCaffrey — and is poised to rebound after a tough matchup with the Bears in Week 4.
Cook already ripped off a 75-yard run this season and would have laid waste to this rushing prop three times this season with games north of 110 rushing yards. The Giants are allowing 90.75 rushing yards per game with only one opponent — the Cowboys — featuring a stud running back. Dalvin Cook is a stud and looks like a legitimate contender for the rushing title if he can stay healthy. I will learn my lesson eventually… just not with this pick. Give me Dalvin Cook over this yardage number.
My Pick: Over 79.5 Rushing Yards +105
NFL Betting Picks Week 5 — WR Player Prop for Falcons at Texans
Julio Jones Over/Under 6.5 Receptions(use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
The Houston Texans sit in the bottom ten of the NFL thus far in targets allowed per game (23) and receptions allowed per game (16) to opposing wide receiver corps. This week, they will welcome one of the most consistent producers in the NFL over the last decade in Julio Jones.
Jones saw 7, 9, 10, and 11 targets from Matt Ryan in the first four weeks of the season. This week, Matt Ryan boasts a yardage prop at 305.5 passing yards in a game with a 50-point implied total. Bookmakers project a shootout with both teams struggling to get the running games going in 2019. If Ryan is going to throw for over 300 yards, one would anticipate that Julio Jones will be heavily targeted.
Facing coverage from Lonnie Johnson, Jr., RotoGrinders WR vs CB matchup tool gives Julio the fourth-best wide receiver matchup of the week. Playing on turf, this game could become a track meet very quickly which will boost Jones’ opportunities in the passing as both teams look to outpace each other. Give me the over on Julio’s prop in a high scoring, offensive affair.
My Pick: Over 6.5 Receptions -106
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 5 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 5 betting picks.
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