NFL DFS First Look: Conference Championships
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, EPA rankings, and more to help you get a head start on your research for the coming week.
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | R-Total | Home Team | H-Total | Favorite | Spread | Total | Date | Time (ET) | Slate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 20.5 | Baltimore Ravens | 24.0 | BAL | -3.5 | 44.5 | Sunday | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Detroit Lions | 21.8 | San Francisco 49ers | 28.8 | SFO | -7.0 | 50.5 | Sunday | 6:30 pm | Main |
Implied Team Totals & Matchup Chart (DVOA, EPA, DvP)
DVOA stats courtesy of FTN data
| Offense | Spread | Total | Matchup | tDVOA | totEPA | pDVOA | pasEPA | rDVOA | rusEPA | QB DvP | RB DvP | WR DvP | TE DvP | TIME (ET) | SLATE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | -3.5 | 24.0 | vs KCC | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 28 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 3:00 pm | Main | |||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3.5 | 20.5 | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 3:00 pm | Main | |||
| San Francisco 49ers | -7.0 | 28.8 | vs DET | 13 | 21 | 16 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 30 | 24 | 6:30 pm | Main | |||
| Detroit Lions | 7.0 | 21.8 | at SFO | 4 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: tDVOA = total defensive DVOA, totEPA = total defensive EPA, pDVOA = DVOA against the pass, pasEPA = EPA against the pass, rDVOA = DVOA against the run, rusEPA = EPA against the run, DvP = defense vs. position. Blue and green cells mark favorable matchups for the offense in the first column.
D-Line vs. O-Line – Pressures & Sacks
| Defense | Spread | DraftKings | FanDuel | Press | PrROE | Sacks/G | Matchup | Opp Total | O Press | O PrROE | O Sacks/G | Defense | Sack Pot | Time (ET) | Slate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.5 | $3,200 | $4,200 | 23 | 18 | 1 | vs KCC | 20.5 | 20 | 16 | 2 | Ravens | 2 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Chiefs | 3.5 | $2,900 | $3,800 | 6 | 5 | 2 | at BAL | 24.0 | 24 | 23 | 16 | Chiefs | 1 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| 49ers | -7.0 | $3,300 | $4,500 | 4 | 4 | 7 | vs DET | 21.8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 49ers | 3 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Lions | 7.0 | $2,600 | $3,300 | 7 | 14 | 23 | at SFO | 28.8 | 18 | 12 | 6 | Lions | 4 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: Press is pressure % on the opposing quarterback, PrROE is pressure rate over expectations, and sacks/g is sacks per game. The stats with O in front are for the opposing offensive line. Blue and green cells mark favorable stats for the defense in the first column.
Offense vs. Defense – Rushing & Passing Potential
| Offense | Spread | Total | pDVOA | pEPA | rDVOA | rEPA | Matchup | pDVOA | dEPA | rDVOA | rEPA | Offense | P-POT | R-POT | Time (ET) | Slate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.5 | 24.0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | vs KCC | 5 | 3 | 27 | 28 | Ravens | 2 | 1 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Chiefs | 3.5 | 20.5 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 18 | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | Chiefs | 4 | 4 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| 49ers | -7.0 | 28.8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | vs DET | 16 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 49ers | 1 | 2 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Lions | 7.0 | 21.8 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 6 | at SFO | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | Lions | 3 | 3 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: pDVOA = DVOA against the pass, pEPA = EPA against the pass, rDVOA = DVOA against the run, rEPA = EPA against the run, P-POT = offensive passing potential, R-POT = offensive rushing potential.
Projected Starters — Quarterback
| Player | Team | Spread | Total | DraftKings | FanDuel | PaY/G | PaT/G | RuY/G | RuT/G | Int/G | QBR | Opp | pDVOA | pasEPA | DvP | Time (ET) | Slate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $7,700 | $8,800 | 229.9 | 1.5 | 51.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 102.7 | vs KCC | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Patrick Mahomes | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $6,900 | $7,500 | 261.4 | 1.7 | 24.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 92.6 | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Brock Purdy | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $6,400 | $7,700 | 267.5 | 1.9 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 113.0 | vs DET | 16 | 25 | 30 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Jared Goff | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $6,300 | $7,200 | 269.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 97.9 | at SFO | 4 | 6 | 11 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: PaY/G = passing yards per game, PaT/G = passing touchdowns per game, RuY/G = rushing yards per game, RuT/G = rushing touchdowns per game, Int/G = interceptions per game, QBR = quarterback rating, pDVOA = opponent’s DVOA against the pass, pEPA = opponent EPA against the pass, DvP = Defense vs. Position.
Projected Starters — Running Back
| Player | Team | Spread | Total | DraftKings | FanDuel | Att/G | RuY/G | Tar/G | ReY/G | Tar % | Rte % | Opp | rDVOA | rusEPA | DvP | Time (ET) | Slate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $5,500 | $5,800 | 11.6 | 47.6 | 0.7 | 10.6 | 2% | 23% | vs KCC | 27 | 28 | 8 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Justice Hill | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $4,800 | $5,500 | 5.3 | 24.2 | 2.3 | 12.9 | 8% | 36% | vs KCC | 27 | 28 | 8 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Isiah Pacheco | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $6,500 | $7,800 | 14.6 | 66.8 | 3.6 | 17.4 | 10% | 38% | at BAL | 7 | 16 | 14 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $4,500 | $4,600 | 4.7 | 14.9 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 4% | 18% | at BAL | 7 | 16 | 14 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Christian McCaffrey | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $9,000 | $11,000 | 17.0 | 91.2 | 4.9 | 35.3 | 17% | 71% | vs DET | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Elijah Mitchell | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $4,600 | $4,400 | 6.8 | 25.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3% | 11% | vs DET | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $6,400 | $7,000 | 12.1 | 63.0 | 4.7 | 21.1 | 13% | 52% | at SFO | 15 | 26 | 4 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| David Montgomery | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $5,600 | $6,000 | 15.6 | 72.5 | 1.6 | 8.4 | 5% | 26% | at SFO | 15 | 26 | 4 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: Att/G = rushing attempts per game, RuY/G = rushing yards per game, Tar/G = targets per game, ReY/G = receiving yards per game, Tar % = percentage of team targets, Rte % = percentage of routes on total drop-backs, rDVOA = opponent’s DVOA against the run, rusEPA = opponent’s ERA against the run, DvP = Defense vs. Position.
Projected Starters — Wide Receiver
| Player | Team | Spread | Total | DraftKings | FanDuel | Tar/G | Rec/G | Yar/G | Tar % | Air % | Rte % | Opp | pDVOA | pasEPA | DVP | TIME (ET) | SLATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $5,800 | $6,400 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 53.6 | 23% | 24% | 88% | vs KCC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $3,600 | $4,900 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 22.9 | 12% | 20% | 52% | vs KCC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Odell Beckham | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $4,400 | $5,200 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 40.4 | 15% | 25% | 53% | vs KCC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Rashee Rice | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $6,500 | $7,100 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 58.6 | 17% | 14% | 53% | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Justin Watson | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $3,300 | $4,700 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 28.8 | 9% | 26% | 46% | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $3,400 | $4,800 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 19.7 | 7% | 19% | 59% | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $6,900 | $7,800 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 83.9 | 23% | 39% | 81% | vs DET | 16 | 25 | 30 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Deebo Samuel | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $7,300 | $8,000 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 59.5 | 21% | 19% | 77% | vs DET | 16 | 25 | 30 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Jauan Jennings | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $4,600 | $5,300 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 20.4 | 8% | 11% | 50% | vs DET | 16 | 25 | 30 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $7,900 | $9,000 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 94.7 | 28% | 33% | 88% | at SFO | 4 | 6 | 19 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $3,700 | $5,000 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 29.5 | 10% | 23% | 47% | at SFO | 4 | 6 | 19 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $4,000 | $5,600 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 35.8 | 10% | 17% | 67% | at SFO | 4 | 6 | 19 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: Tar/G = targets per game, Rec/G = receptions per game, Yar/G = receiving yards per game, Tar % = percentage of team targets, Air % = percentage of team air yards, Rte % = percentage of routes on total drop-backs, pDVOA = opponent’s DVOA against the pass, pasEPA = opponent EPA against the pass, DvP = Defense vs. Position.
Projected Starters — Tight End
| Player | Team | Spread | Total | DraftKings | FanDuel | Tar/G | Rec/G | Yar/G | Tar % | Air % | Rte % | Opp | pDVOA | pasEPA | DVP | TIME (ET) | SLATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | BAL | -3.5 | 24.0 | $5,000 | $5,700 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 54.4 | 21% | 19% | 73% | vs KCC | 5 | 3 | 10 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| Travis Kelce | KCC | 3.5 | 20.5 | $6,600 | $7,200 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 65.6 | 21% | 24% | 73% | at BAL | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3:00 pm | Main |
| George Kittle | SFO | -7.0 | 28.8 | $5,300 | $6,600 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 63.8 | 19% | 24% | 82% | vs DET | 16 | 25 | 24 | 6:30 pm | Main |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 7.0 | 21.8 | $5,400 | $6,500 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 52.3 | 20% | 22% | 71% | at SFO | 4 | 6 | 11 | 6:30 pm | Main |
Note: Tar/G = targets per game, Rec/G = receptions per game, Yar/G = receiving yards per game, Tar % = percentage of team targets, Air % = percentage of team air yards, Rte % = percentage of routes on total drop-backs, pDVOA = opponent’s DVOA against the pass, pasEPA = opponent EPA against the pass, DvP = Defense vs. Position.
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